On Zhihu, there is a very interesting question, “At the beginning of the year, I always heard that foreign trade was the most difficult industry this year. Why do I always see news about the outbreak of exports now?”
This is not a question from an industry insider, but I believe that some foreign trade people will indeed murmur, Is it really just our family that is in trouble?
Judging from the current global market environment, the upward trend of China’s manufacturing industry is obvious to all.
Recently, a large clothing factory in Dongguan has cooperated with cross-border e-commerce customers in Guangzhou, and the clothing is sold to end consumers in the United States and Japan through Amazon. During the Black Friday and Cyber Monday periods that just passed, customers’ store traffic on Amazon increased significantly, and orders skyrocketed. The director of the garment factory said that Guangzhou’s cross-border e-commerce customers have increased their purchases this year, from a few thousand pieces in the past to hundreds of times now.
Some garment factories in Dongguan have also stated that they will resume taking orders from July, and orders are currently scheduled until the end of the year. Recently, a garment factory in Qiaosi, Hangzhou, has been overwhelmed with orders and production has been scheduled until January next year. Recently, the clothing industry has shown a good situation of receiving orders, which is a hot phenomenon.
According to clothing factories in Hangzhou, most factories received a lot of foreign trade clothing orders in the second half of the year. The improvement in foreign trade orders is partly due to the gradual recovery of export orders in the second half of the year, and the return of foreign orders that disappeared in the first half of the year. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia and other places was severe in the second half of the year. Many garment processing factories were unable to produce normally, and some garment processing orders were returned to China. This resulted in an increase in domestic garment factory orders and booming business in the second half of the year.
The latest data shows that from January to October this year, the country’s exports of goods trade increased by 0.5% year-on-year in U.S. dollars. In October, it increased significantly by 11.4%, with the growth rate reaching the highest level in 20 months. new highs. Among them, textile and clothing exports increased by 9.5% from January to October, and the growth rate in October reached 15.7%, maintaining a strong growth trend. The rapid growth of textile exports is mainly due to the security and stability of the supply chain of my country’s textile industry chain, which effectively guarantees the production and supply capabilities of textile and clothing.
Affected by the epidemic, the production rhythm of many major textile exporting countries has been disrupted. Coupled with the market opportunities brought by the holiday consumption season, clothing from major garment exporting countries such as India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh has The flow of orders has become the focus of attention at home and abroad.
After the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, the world economic pattern has undergone great changes. An important feature is that the epidemic will coexist with mankind for a long time. The impact of the epidemic on the economy will continue, and industries The security and stability of supply chains are more important than ever, which brings new advantages and time windows to China’s manufacturing industry:
First, China has demonstrated its outstanding performance in epidemic prevention and control. The strong institutional strength and mobilization capabilities provide a strong guarantee for enterprises to resume work and production.
Second, China is the largest manufacturing country and the only country in the world that has all industrial categories. It has the advantage of the entire industrial chain and can provide nearby industrial supporting facilities to ensure production and supply capabilities.
The third is to have excellent circulation infrastructure and circulation system. Good ports, railways, airports and other facilities, as well as an efficient logistics system, can quickly deliver products to all parts of the world in a timely manner.
In the future, the advantages and effects of these factors will continue to be highlighted, which can largely offset the disadvantages of rising labor costs in our country. The development of foreign trade of our country’s enterprises will usher in rare opportunities. Window of opportunity.
However, we must also pay attention to the fact that there may be undercurrents surging under the calm sea. This year’s COVID-19 epidemic has begun to make us re-examine this point of view and think about the following questions:
Why did our orders explode?
When the epidemic is over, will this order be “sustainable”?
How many countries are aware of this problem and what are their solutions?
The outbreak of the epidemic has actually exposed the risks brought by economic globalization. In order to resist risks, more and more countries may start to rebuild their own industrial chains out of economic security considerations. It is unknown how many of this year’s orders will remain in China.
At the same time, the depreciation of the US dollar has put tremendous pressure on RMB appreciation on China’s foreign trade companies. For most export companies, profit margins have been greatly compressed, and their financial status faces great challenges. So, in such a general environment, can the signing of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) offset the impact of the relocation of industrial chains and the reshoring of manufacturing industries on China’s manufacturing industry?
According to statistics, in RCEP, China’s manufacturing industry accounts for 65%, its population accounts for 64%, and its economic size accounts for 55%, which is much larger than any other country in RCEP. This determines China has an almost dominant position in RCEP. RCEP will focus on China to carry out the division of labor in the industrial chain, which is very important for China to build its own economy.The economic system and international sphere of influence are very favorable.
For China, the good news brought by RCEP is far more than that. Interested friends can learn about it through many channels, so I won’t go into details here.
When I was chatting with a business owner about RCEP last week, I asked him if he had carefully studied RCEP and whether he had considered what it would bring to the development of the company. The change. The boss pondered for a moment and asked me a question: “When will RCEP be fully implemented?”
Different from the academic circles’ formal analysis of the pros and cons of RCEP, the boss’s question Down to the core.
RCEP will undoubtedly bring huge dividends to Chinese manufacturing companies, but its full implementation will not be achieved overnight. It may be three to five years, or it may be ten or twenty years. For enterprises, the more important thing is to survive and try to catch up. It would be too early to simply think about what we can get from RCEP next year and the year after. </p
