The RMB exchange rate continues to rise. Yesterday, the offshore RMB rose above the 6.50 mark against the U.S. dollar, setting a new high since June 2018. It once rose by more than 200 points during the day.
The offshore RMB rose above the 6.50 mark against the US dollar
On the 9th, the offshore RMB rose above the 6.50 mark against the US dollar, continuing to hit a new high since June 2018.
In addition, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened 80 basis points higher at 6.5204.
Li Liuyang, chief foreign exchange analyst of the Financial Market Department of China Merchants Bank, believes that from a technical point of view, 6.50 is the next support. In the short term, the rapid appreciation of the RMB has basically come to an end, and the probability of a correction or sideways consolidation is not low.
Since the beginning of June, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar gradually appreciated from 7.1964 to 6.4995, with a rebound of nearly 7,000 points. A simple calculation shows that if a resident exchanges 100,000 US dollars, it will cost 719,000 yuan. Today, the minimum is only 649,000 yuan, a difference of nearly 70,000 yuan.
The RMB exchange rate has entered the “new normal” of two-way fluctuations of large openings and closings
From the perspective of the real economy, the current RMB exchange rate is at a balanced and reasonable level. The change depends more on what happens to the U.S. dollar index. Unless the US dollar enters a trend of depreciation, it is too early to say that the RMB has entered an appreciation cycle.
In the view of Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, the RMB exchange rate is not so much entering a new cycle as it is a new normal. Specifically, in the next stage, good economic fundamentals in China will support the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate. This is the basic logic. After these positive factors are gradually realized, if there is no new positive support or even new negative factors appear, the pressure of exchange rate correction may regain the upper hand, but it is difficult to predict when the turning point will occur. In the future, the RMB exchange rate will be based on the equilibrium level. If it falls too much, it will rise, and if it rises too much, it will fall. It will have a two-way oscillation trend of rising and falling, and wide opening and closing.
Guan Tao believes that with the continued appreciation of the RMB in the recent period, the market has emerged with some expectations of unilateral appreciation. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau have recently introduced countermeasures and released signals to guide expectations. For example, increasing the quota of QDII can release the demand for foreign exchange purchases and further promote the balance of international payments. At the same time, regulatory authorities must have considered that the risk of expanding the quota is within controllable limits.
Boosted by strong winds, wildfires broke out again in Orange County, Southern California, USA
At around 10 pm local time on December 2nd, the Orange County Fire Department in Southern California received an alarm that a wildfire broke out near the Silverado Valley. Previously (October 26th) The Silverado Fire just broke out and burned more than 50 square kilometers of land.
This wildfire called Bond Fire (BondFire) was driven by strong winds and the fire area spread rapidly. Residents in the surrounding areas of the wildfire also received warnings and were asked to Prepare to evacuate, while some areas are required to evacuate.
The Orange County Fire Department has dispatched ground firefighters and fire helicopters to fight the scene in the early morning of the 3rd. As of 7 a.m. on the 3rd, the Bond Mountain Fire has burned an area of 3,600 acres (15 square kilometers), and the fire has not spread. Any sign of being controlled. There are currently no reports of damage to homes or casualties in the area. The day before, the area had received a red warning for strong winds from the Bureau of Meteorology. Santa Ana strong winds will hit many places in Orange County again, with the highest wind speed reaching 75 kilometers per hour. The boost of strong winds and dry, low-humidity environment will bring The area is again at risk from wildfires.
Italian Floods
On December 4, extremely severe weather such as heavy rain, heavy snow, thunderstorms and strong winds occurred in the mountainous areas of northern Italy. Among them, heavy snowfall weather is the most obvious. The maximum snow depth in some towns in the northern mountainous area reaches about 2 meters, which is really serious. Of course, for Italy, this is not the only extreme weather. Something even more extreme happened on the 7th. Following the blizzard, another supercell storm appeared in the North Adriatic Sea. Such a strong weather system directly It affected local areas in Italy, especially the city of Trieste.
There is widespread rain and snow in western and southern Europe and southern central Europe. There are also heavy rains and other thunderstorms in the area near the Mediterranean Sea. In other words, after Oceania, Europe is not stopping either. At the same time, wildfires and snowstorms are also coming in North America. Live footage showed that on the 6th, the eastern United States encountered its first snowstorm in the winter of 2020. The snow was 30 centimeters deep in New England and other places, and nearly 300,000 households were without power.
Australia has been burning for another two months!
Recently, parts of Australia have experienced extremely hot weather. In Fraser Island, a World Natural Heritage Site in Queensland, bushfires are burning driven by the heat wave. A few weeks and still not under control.
December 7, local time.In the early morning, the fire approached a seaside town, and the fire department issued an “immediate evacuation” warning to dozens of local residents. The bushfire started burning in mid-October and has burned at least 80,000 hectares of forest, accounting for 50% of Fraser Island’s forest area.
The world’s largest sand island may “disappear”
The Fraser Island that caught fire this time is the world’s largest pure sand island. Sand Island is known as “Australia’s unique ecosystem”. The island has stretches of sand dunes and the only lush rainforest in the world that grows in the sand.
The island covers an area of approximately 1,818.5 square kilometers and was included in the World Heritage List by UNESCO in 1992.
According to Reuters, the forest fire was caused by tourists illegally lighting bonfires, and the Queensland government has ordered a comprehensive investigation.
The local meteorological department stated that high temperatures and strong winds will continue in the next few days, and the fire may spread further, which means that it is very difficult to control the fire.
James Haig, who is responsible for directing the firefighting, told AFP: “The vegetation on Fraser Island is very dry and can be easily ignited.” Haig also It said on social media that despite the “challenging situation”, firefighters were “doing their best”. Although the fire is already very bad, the subsequent situation may be even worse. This natural heritage is at risk of disappearing.
Extreme weather “fuels the fire season”
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology stated on December 1, local time, that November this year is the The hottest spring on record.
On November 28th and 29th, the temperature in Sydney exceeded 40 degrees Celsius, breaking the 60-year high temperature record for two consecutive days. Most areas in western New South Wales, South Australia and northern Victoria were as high as 45 degrees Celsius.
According to news from the Australian New South Wales Rural Fire Service on the 29th, due to high temperature weather, 62 grass fires and forest fires have been found in the state.
Affected by the high temperature, the Australian National Fire Service also issued a comprehensive fire ban for most areas in eastern and northeastern New South Wales on the 29th. The fire service said there was a “very severe fire danger forecast” as high temperatures and high winds led to drier conditions.
The shocking “Black Summer”
September 2019 to early 2020 was a shocking time for Australians. The “Black Summer” of despair. The bushfires that raged for four months destroyed more than 3,000 houses and burned an area of 24 million hectares, killing at least 33 people. At the same time, nearly 3 billion animals died or lost their habitats.
At that time, the Australian government was widely criticized for its slow response, slow rescue, and low efficiency.
In December 2019, just as many Australians were worried about the spreading wildfires and sought stronger help from the government, Prime Minister Morrison “missed”. The Australian government said that the Prime Minister was on vacation, but refused to disclose the news of Morrison’s vacation in Hawaii, which caused an uproar in public opinion. After returning home, Morrison was refused and almost kicked out when he went to comfort residents in a small town.
Are frequent fires “natural disasters” or “man-made disasters”?
Every year from late spring to early autumn, drought, extreme heat, and strong winds mean that Australia cannot escape the high fire period of 3 to 5 months. Australia’s bushfire survey agency has found that climate change is making Australia’s fires more severe. Australia’s forests are extremely dry, coupled with year-round high temperatures and little rain, resulting in a large accumulation of flammable materials such as fallen leaves. Under the influence of dry weather, fires can easily start and spread quickly to other areas.
Are there some man-made factors behind the natural disasters that have prolonged this dangerous period? According to the BBC, Australia’s population only accounts for about 0.3% of the world’s total population, but its greenhouse gas emissions amount to 1.3% of the global total, making it one of the countries with the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the world. As a developed country, it should shoulder more emissions reduction tasks, but in fact Australia has always had a negative attitude on the issue of climate change. Australia was once the only industrialized country besides the United States to refuse to sign the Kyoto Protocol. Later, although Australia signed the Paris Agreement dedicated to combating climate change, as the United States announced its withdrawal from the Agreement, Australia also drifted away from the Paris Agreement. Australia is becoming drier, hotter and more prone to devastating bushfires, according to climate models from environmental groups. In the future, as global warming continues to intensify, Australia will face more severe environmental challenges.
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