Overview:
External crude oil continued to rebound last week. The main Brent 01 contract increased by 6.12% on a weekly basis, and the main WTI 12 contract increased by 5.15% on a weekly basis. Pay attention to whether the high export volume of Libyan crude oil can be sustained. . The main contract of SC crude oil 2101 continued to rebound last week following the external market, with a smaller weekly increase of 1.32%.
The epidemic continues to break out in Europe and the United States. The United States added more than 200,000 new cases in a single day, setting a new high. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases reached 12.4507 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 260,000. The epidemic situation in India and Brazil is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has reached nearly 9.0959 million.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA fluctuated during the week and rose to 3,270 yuan/ton. The main processing gap of TA disk widened again to 740. TA spot processing difference widened slightly to 538. The 3.75 million ton unit of Yisheng (Dalian) was completely shut down in early November, restarted on 11.15, and discharged on 11.18. The load is currently increasing; the 750,000 ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical will be inspected for two weeks starting on 11.13; the 1 million ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment will be shut down on 11.17 and is planned to 5 days. PTA’s domestic load rebounded sharply to 85.5%. Polyester loads increased slightly.
As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 92.1%. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped partially. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 88% and 94% respectively. It is still the highest level for the same period in history. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than the same period last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. The transaction volume in November was acceptable, but the transaction volume in December may decline. Polyester is still profitable. Crude oil prices continued to rebound slightly this week, with strong cost support. The PTA-PX spread fluctuated at a low level. Polyester load high sustainability is questionable.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 3,785 yuan/ton; the nearby price of coal-based ethylene glycol fell to 3,525 yuan /Ton. The main basis of EG2101 has been weak this week, reaching -58 as of Friday.
As of November 16, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.151 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 16 to November 22, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 117,000 tons, and the arrivals at the port continue to be low. Startups of ethylene glycol coal-to-coal plants fell sharply last week.
As of November 19, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 63.12%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 51.25%. Overseas: Saudi Arabia’s 700,000-ton unit is currently restarting ahead of schedule, and another 700,000-ton unit is also restarting as planned. The restart of a 300,000-ton unit in South Korea has been postponed to December, and a 720,000-ton unit in Taiwan is scheduled to be shut down for about a month on November 5. Increasing overseas supply may delay response. Demand (including speculative demand) continues to be strong, and accumulation expectations have been pushed back.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) first rose and then fell last week, fluctuating within a narrow range, and reached $386/ton last Friday. External crude oil continued to rebound last week, with the main Brent 01 contract rising by 6.12% on a weekly basis and the WTI 12 main contract increasing by 5.15% on a weekly basis. Pay attention to whether the high export volume of Libyan crude oil can be sustained. The naphtha-Brent price gap fluctuated within a narrow range this week, reaching US$55 as of last Friday; the naphtha-WTI price difference reached around US$76 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) basically continued to rise last week following crude oil, rising to US$550 as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread fluctuated at a low level last week, reaching US$144 as of last Friday. PX China’s operating rate remained stable compared with last week, and the load in Asia increased significantly.
2 Cost and profit changes
Oil-to-ethylene glycol The average spot price rose sharply to 3,785 yuan/ton. The spot price near coal production fell to 3,525 yuan/ton. Coal production load dropped significantly last week to around 50%, and coal production losses continued to intensify. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol continued to increase last week to -$119/ton. Naphtha to ethylene glycol maintains a basic break-even, with a slight profit of about US$16. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route recovered slightly to -1,784 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic equipment: Xinfengming Dushan Energy 2 The 2.2 million tons PTA device in the current period was put into operation on October 19, and the PTA production capacity base was adjusted to 57.03 million tons from November. The 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was shut down from 11.3, and restart is pending; the 3.75-million-ton unit of Yisheng (Dalian) was completely shut down in early November, restarted on 11.15, and discharged materials on 11.18. The current load is being increased; the 750,000-ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical was inspected for two days starting from 11.13 Weekly; Sichuan Energy’s 1-million-ton plant will be shut down on November 17th for five days. PTA’s domestic load rebounded sharply to 85.5%.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol plant: 2020 Starting from November this year, China’s total ethylene glycol production capacity is 15.035 million tons, and the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity is 5.19 million tons. A new 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was added. Domestic supply of ethylene glycol declined slightly, and coal-based production declined significantly. As of November 19, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 63.12%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 51.25%. Sinopec Wuhan 280,000-ton unit shut down for maintenance on October 15 2month; the 40,000-ton unit in Sierbon was shut down on 10.15 and is currently restarting; the 750,000-ton unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to be converted to PE and EB, with a load of around 60%; the 200,000-ton unit in Henan Yongcheng was temporarily shut down on 11.17, and another unit in Puyang The 200,000-ton unit is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in late November, and restart is to be determined; Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit will undergo maintenance for 30 days starting from November 20.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory accumulated again last week, warehouse receipts continued to rise sharply, and PTA factories Factory inventories have rebounded significantly, polyester factory raw material inventories have increased simultaneously, and TA inventories converted from polyester finished product inventories have also increased significantly last week.
3 Ethylene glycol imports and port inventories
As of November 16, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is approximately 115.1 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared with the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 16 to November 22, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 117,000 tons, and the arrivals at the port continue to be low. Accumulated inventory is expected to be postponed.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
The polyester equipment continues to be put into operation. Starting from November 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 62.6 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun (supporting the production of polyester filament). As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 92.1%. It is expected that the load will continue to remain high and stable in November. Last week, in terms of bottle flakes, Yihua, Sanfangxiang and Wankai restarted; in terms of filament, Xinfengming opened a new 300,000 tons of filament. The load of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded significantly to 74.5%; the load of square polyester short-term products is at full capacity.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2PolyesterInventory
AsoflastFriday,theequityinventoriesofPOY,FDY,andDTYinJiangsuandZhejiangpolyesterfactorieswereat13.5,15.5,and15.1respectively.sky.Filamentyarnwasdestockedagain,andfilamentyarnprofitscontinuedtonarrow.Polyesterstaplefiberstockscontinuedtofallto-2.5days.Theaverageinventoryofpolyesterbottleflakescontinuestofalltojustover25days.Recently,therehasbeencontinuoushoardinginthebottleflakesmarket,whichhasboostedthepriceofbottleflakes.Speculativeinventoryaccountsforahighproportion,factoryinventorieshavedeclined,andsocialinventorieshavecontinuedtogrow.Theinventoryofpolyesterstaplefiberremainsatthelowestlevelinthesameperiodofthepastyear;theinventoryofpolyesterbottleflakesremainsatthehighestlevelinthesameperiodofthepastyear;theinventoryofpolyesterfilamentisthesecondhighestlevelinthesameperiodofthepastyear.
2 Terminal situation
Last week, the operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined partially. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 88% and 94% respectively, which are still the highest levels in the same period in previous years.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area dropped to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 40.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than the same period last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. Double Eleven transactions were almost not affected by the epidemic. However, there was no peak season in September this year. The transaction volume in November was acceptable, but the transaction volume in December may decline. . </p
