This year’s “Eleventh Golden Week” made many authorities in the cotton spinning industry “shocked.” The price of cotton yarn has risen sharply this week. As of October 15, CY C32S pure cotton yarn reported a closing price of 21,000 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 2,400 yuan/ton from last week. The price of pure cotton yarn was almost “overnight” pulled back to the early stage of the epidemic. At the stage of rushing to ship goods, people can’t help but sigh: history is always surprisingly similar.
This year’s National Day holiday is slightly longer than in previous years, and this year’s National Day coincides with the start of large-scale purchases of seed cotton stage. In the early stage, seed cotton was not purchased and processed in large quantities, and the quotations in the market were not yet stable. However, during the National Day period, seed cotton was purchased in large quantities, and under the current enthusiasm for “rushing to harvest”, the purchase price of seed cotton has been rising, which has led to an increase in the theoretical processing cost of lint cotton. As of October 15, the CC3128B cotton index closed at 14,306 yuan/ton, breaking through the 10,000 mark, a year-on-year increase of 1,368 yuan/ton before the holiday, setting a new high this year. This year’s excess cotton processing capacity and insufficient cotton resources in Xinjiang have caused many cotton farmers to remain reluctant to sell seed cotton. However, in order to ensure the purchase volume this year, ginners can only bite the bullet and raise the price. Therefore, although cotton yarn sales have been booming recently , but textile companies are still restocking stocks rationally, and cotton raw material stocks have not seen “exponential” growth.
Insufficient follow-up on the increase in gray fabrics this week , as of October 15, cotton gray fabric CG C32 closed at 4.74 yuan/meter, an increase of 7% from last week. After the cotton yarn price increased in October, orders from weaving mills did not feel like they would continue to improve. Therefore, weaving mills are currently in an environment where profit margins for order production are thin, spot production is concerned, and cotton yarn purchases are at high levels. Some weaving mills have already reported that customers cannot accept the latest cost price, thus indirectly suppressing demand.
In terms of imported yarn, as of October 15, FCY Index C32S closed at 21,310 yuan/ton, which was higher than It rose by 2,654 yuan/ton last week. The price difference between internal and external yarns has narrowed, but is still in an inverted state. From the perspective of exchange rate, the RMB exchange selling price of Bank of China in September showed a process of first appreciation, then depreciation and then appreciation again. Especially after the National Day, the appreciation rate was relatively large. The appreciation of the RMB has reduced the settlement cost of imported yarn at the port, and the port inventory has dropped significantly. However, the exchange rate has been stable in recent days. The internal and external prices of my country’s major cotton yarn importing countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam, and India have continued to rise. In addition, the second wave of the epidemic in the Middle East has affected the start-up and reduced supply, which has continued to increase the price of imported yarn. Will imported yarn continue to maintain the current price in the future? The level of heat will be unknown.
Throughout the entire industry chain, most foreign brands and retailers currently do not accept textile and apparel companies, foreign trade The company’s quotation has been raised, and the increase in raw materials and gauze is difficult to pass on to end orders. Export-oriented enterprises have limited affordability, so they either “abandon orders” or absorb the rising costs of cotton, cotton yarn, etc. on their own. No matter which choice is made, production Enterprises are all suffering; in addition, the profits of the Thanksgiving, Christmas and “Double 11” domestic sales orders received in August/September from European, American, ASEAN and other markets have significantly shrunk or even suffered losses due to the sharp increase in the prices of cotton, cotton gauze, etc. Textile and clothing Enterprises are tormented between executing the contract or negotiating with the buyer to terminate the contract or breach the contract. As for the “violent” rise in cotton and cotton yarn prices, the market situation that has just improved and exports have been picking up intermittently will be severely damaged, accelerating the transfer of orders from Europe, the United States, and the Middle East to major textile countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, India, and Pakistan. On the other hand, according to the Wall Street Journal, as of October 12, local time, countries including the 27 EU countries and the United Kingdom had an average of more than 78,000 new COVID-19 cases per day in the past seven days, with an average of 152 per million residents. new cases. During the same time period, the United States had an average of 49,000 new cases per day, with an average of 150 new cases per million residents. This is the first time since the outbreak of the new coronavirus in spring this year that the average number of new cases in a single day in the European Union has exceeded that of the United States. With the surge in raw materials and the foreseeable demand cliff at the terminal, the current industrial market situation of “pushing seedlings to encourage growth” will inevitably leave “a mess” when it ends. The “mess” left by then will still need to be cleaned up by industry chain companies. </p
