What is the current supply and demand situation in domestic and overseas markets? What operational opportunities exist for relevant companies? How to manage relevant risks during the National Day holiday? After participating in the “Crude Oil Futures Online Lecture Series” jointly organized by the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center and the Dubai Mercantile Exchange on September 25, the reporter interviewed a number of industry insiders to sort out these situations.
Since this year, affected by the epidemic, the global economy has been greatly turbulent, and the demand for crude oil has dropped significantly. Although international oil prices have gradually risen since May due to the gradual recovery of demand and significant supply-side production cuts, the market’s demand for crude oil has recently been weakened by the loosening of supply-side production cuts and the unexpected development of the global epidemic affecting economic recovery. The rebound caused concern, and oil prices subsequently fell sharply.
Concerns on the demand side continue to intensify
Mentioning the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, Li Yunxu, a senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures Research Institute, believes that the main reasons are the intensification of demand-side concerns and the decline in global market risk appetite. Recently, against the background that terminal demand momentum in China, India, and the United States has all weakened significantly, the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe has hindered the recovery of crude oil demand. The early market expectations for a gradual recovery in demand as the world resumes work and production have been revised to some extent. In addition, the obstruction of the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan and the lack of expectations for further easing, the shift in macroeconomic sentiment has driven financial assets to collectively fall back from high levels, which naturally has an amplifying effect on oil price fluctuations.
As far as the current international crude oil market is concerned, according to Zhong Meiyan, director of energy and chemical crude oil of Everbright Futures, it is not only facing the impact of seasonal turning points, but also the high demand for refined oil is weakening. . Especially in terms of refineries, not only has the operating rate of U.S. refineries dropped significantly compared with the average level in previous years (as of the week of September 14, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was only around 75%), but also the operating rate of local refineries in China Only around 72%. She said: “Taking into account the rising pressure on domestic refined oil inventories in the coming period and the pressure on refinery operating rates to increase, it is difficult for overall domestic demand to improve.”
As for downstream finished products As far as the oil market is concerned, according to Li Yunxu, the collapse rate of jet fuel demand is still the largest among all refined oil products, because many routes around the world are still suspended, and the number of flights has only returned to 50%-60% of the same period in previous years. On the contrary, the maritime and land transport markets have recovered well. EIA weekly data shows that the apparent demand for gasoline in the United States has recovered to 90% of the same period in previous years, and the apparent demand for diesel has reached 85% of the same period in previous years. In terms of shipping, container shipping and dry bulk shipping improved significantly in the third quarter. However, the elasticity of ship fuel demand due to the impact of the epidemic is relatively small, and is currently expected to be 90%-95% of the same period in previous years. ”
As for the global crude oil inventory situation, industry insiders believe that there have been certain fluctuations due to seasonal factors. Since OPEC+ began to implement the largest reduction in history, Global crude oil inventories continue to be in a declining stage. According to statistics, there are currently about 154.8 million barrels of global crude oil floating storage, a decrease of 28.6% from the peak level of 217 million barrels at the end of June. Zhong Meiyan told reporters that although the total trade volume and in-transit volume of global crude oil are both There has been a decline, but the market as a whole is in a situation of sluggish demand, inventory has moved regionally, and the periodic contradictions have not continued to improve.
In fact, foreign media have recently reported According to reports, with the crude oil near-distant monthly differential weakening, some oil traders are preparing to use tankers to store oil in order to make profits in the future. In this regard, Li Yunxu said that the spot price is under pressure and the monthly differential structure has further weakened. The fundamental reason for the increase in demand for oil storage is the increase in demand for oil storage. In addition, due to the decline in trade volume of oil tankers in the early stage, freight rates are at low levels. Floating storage oil storage arbitrage is also a good choice. He added: “After all, in early September, the three-month floating position in Northwest Europe The cost is US$1.08/barrel, and the six-month floating position cost is US$2.43/barrel. However, the three-month monthly difference of Brent futures has reached US$1.45/barrel, and the six-month monthly difference has reached US$2.7/barrel. “However, She Jianyue, assistant general manager of Yide Futures, believes that this kind of operation is only an exception, and the market has not seen the generalization of oil tanker stockpiling.
For the fourth quarter of crude oil market, considering that the efforts of the supply side have brought the oil price back to US$40/barrel, this position is recognized by both bulls and shorts in the market. If oil prices continue to rise in the future, the demand side needs to be further improved. Yang, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures An believes that in this context, the market needs to focus on two aspects of impact: on the one hand, the epidemic needs to be effectively controlled, and the subsequent progress, promotion and application of vaccines and the risk of secondary epidemics brought about by falling temperatures need to be carefully considered. process; on the other hand, the progress of economic recovery in areas severely affected by the epidemic, led by the United States, is closely related to the local government’s later economic recovery policies, and we need to pay attention to the economic recovery situation in Europe and the United States.
In addition to this In addition, Fu Xiao, head of global commodity market strategy at Bank of China International, believes that a new round of competition between major producing countries will also have a greater impact on oil prices in the fourth quarter. However, overall, the rebound in oil prices is supported by the recovery of fundamentals, and short-term oil prices It will still maintain range oscillation, but the average crude oil price in the fourth quarter will most likely be higher than that in the third quarter.
Considering that oil prices will return to high volatility after oscillating for about three months will increaseThe operating risks of relevant enterprises, coupled with the uncertainty of the macroeconomic outlook in the later period, are still very large. Li Yunxu believes that related industries still need to actively manage price risks.
It is less likely that the price difference between domestic and foreign prices will widen
In the domestic market, it is understood that when the epidemic was first effectively controlled at the beginning of the second quarter, domestic terminal oil product demand rebounded rapidly. Coupled with my country’s unique “floor price” policy for refined oil products, the crack price difference of domestic refined oil products is at an absolutely high level relative to international oil prices. Under such circumstances, the refinery operating rate surged in the first half of the year.
Li Yunxu explained that in the second half of the year, when domestic market demand has limited room for recovery on a month-on-month basis, the high inventory of refined oil accumulated in the early stage will be digested slowly. However, it is still at a relatively high position. On the contrary, the export market, which was previously under pressure due to sluggish overseas demand, has improved significantly since August. Data show that the total export volume of gasoline and diesel in August was 2.31 million tons, an increase of 38% from July. It is reported that the planned export volume in September and October both exceeded 3 million tons. The recovery of exports and the gradual decline in the operating rate of domestic refineries will help alleviate domestic inventory pressure.
In Li Yunxu’s view, at the beginning of the second quarter, the premium of Shanghai crude oil futures near-month warehouse receipts reflected the value of storage to a certain extent. At that time, there was a serious oversupply and demand in the global market, spot prices were under pressure, and warehousing resources under the SuperContango structure were extremely tight. Before the storage fee adjustment, the monthly spread of Shanghai crude oil was significantly narrower than that of the external market, which also made its front-month contract more attractive to bulls than the front-month contract of external crude oil.
You must know that for traders’ import arbitrage, the uncertainty of whether the storage capacity is sufficient is a hidden cost above the upper boundary of the theoretical warehouse receipts. However, the exchange actively expands its capacity in a timely manner and The adjustment of warehousing fees has greatly weakened this risk, and traders’ import arbitrage has been carried out smoothly, smoothing the price differences caused by the differentiation of internal and external markets.
However, as far as the current Shanghai crude oil futures are concerned, Li Yunxu said that due to local refineries buying a large number of bottoms when oil prices were low in the early period, demand in the second half of the year has been overdrawn, so it is weak. Under the environment of high demand and high inventory, crude oil purchasing demand is relatively weak. Although warehouse receipts have been gradually released from the delivery warehouse recently, the absolute volume is still large. The disk price of the front-month contract reflects the pressure on warehouse receipts to a certain extent, making it significantly underestimated compared with the external market. However, the possibility of further widening is small, after all, the price difference between internal and external prices in the far month has become reasonable.
In particular, the latest weekly warehouse receipt report of the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center shows that as of the week of September 25, SC warehouse receipts have further declined, reaching 37.36 million barrels, which is 37.36 million barrels. The peak of more than 45 million barrels has dropped by about 7.5 million barrels, a very obvious decline. At the same time, Basra light oil was shipped out of the warehouse for the first time last week, indicating that the discount of Shanghai crude oil futures has begun to attract buyers from China and East Asia to take delivery. This will help alleviate the pressure that Shanghai crude oil futures have been facing in the past six months. Yang An believes that this will also help to repair the discount between Shanghai crude oil futures and international oil prices to a certain extent.
However, considering that the current total level of domestic warehouse receipts is 37.361 million barrels, of which Sinochem Xingzhong decreased by 500,000 barrels, Sinochem Hongrun decreased by 220,000 barrels, and Sinopec Hainan increased by 1.452 million barrels, and the pressure on internal warehouse receipts is still high. Under such circumstances, Zhong Meiyan believes that it is difficult to significantly repair the price difference between internal and external prices in the short term.
As for the inventory situation in the domestic market, Li Yunxu told reporters that although the early situation of crude oil arriving at ports with serious delays has been significantly improved, and the number of floating positions in Asia has dropped significantly, from According to the tracking of port inventories, crude oil inventories are still at high levels and there are no obvious signs of destocking. Under such circumstances, he suggested that refiners or traders can pay attention to the arbitrage of long Shanghai crude oil and short Brent crude oil. If the price difference does not return, they can achieve the purpose of optimizing procurement costs by participating in Shanghai crude oil delivery. Refineries with limited off-site spot processing capabilities can receive intended supplies through EFP or warehouse receipt transfer.
“The National Day holiday is coming soon, and pure speculative transactions need to be extremely cautious. In particular, short orders should pay attention to risk control, although the current energy products are still relatively weak. , but most crude oil sector varieties are easy to rise but difficult to fall. Taking into account the holiday factors, going long also requires patiently waiting for bargain opportunities, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Investors with limited risk tolerance are recommended to wait for market clarity and the holidays before operating. “Yang An analyzed.
Li Yunxu agreed with this: “Under the support of tight supply, the space below oil prices is relatively limited. However, the rebound of the epidemic in Europe will increase the uncertainty on the demand side, coupled with the swing of macro sentiment This has led to a significant cooling of market risk appetite. During the National Day holiday, macro risks are more likely to increase crude oil volatility. It is recommended that relevant investors and industry personnel reduce risk exposure as much as possible.”</p
