In mid-September, the number of domestic cotton companies opening scales increased significantly, and some ginning companies in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei and other places have begun processing new cotton. Since the current daily purchase volume is not large, cotton companies mostly focus on staged processing. Some cotton farmers in the mainland have begun secondary picking, and machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang has also begun sporadic harvesting. From the current point of view, new cotton prices are slightly higher than market expectations.
Judging from the harvest situation of seed cotton in the Mainland, since most cotton farmers are small and medium-sized farmers, there is little pressure for concentrated sales of seed cotton, and you can choose whether to sell all of it this year based on market prices. Therefore, in some areas The phenomenon of reluctance to sell is quite prominent. Even if ginning companies increase the acquisition price, they have not achieved the desired acquisition effect. At the same time, because the profits from real estate cotton processing are not high, some companies can only go to Xinjiang for harvesting and processing. Currently, the purchase price of most standard grade real estate cotton is 3.0-3.2 yuan/jin, slightly higher than the 3 yuan/jin previously estimated.
With the increase in the amount of cotton spun in Xinjiang, hand-picked cotton has been sold all over northern and southern Xinjiang. The selling price range is 5.8-7.1 yuan/kg. The price gap is large, with the high price exceeding 6.5 yuan/kg. Kilograms have made many companies exclaim. The main reasons for its increase are concentrated in the following aspects: First, the cotton quality of seed cotton is higher, and the quality premium brings the price increase; second, the processing purposes of ginning enterprises are different, and thus the cost control is also different. The purchase price of civilian cotton enterprises is significantly higher than that of spinning cotton. Cotton enterprises; third, some cotton enterprises have signed pre-purchase agreements with cotton farmers to improve the quality advantage of cotton with high quality and low prices, in order to achieve a strong competitive advantage. Competition among cotton enterprises has stimulated the emergence of high prices. In addition, recently, machine-picked cotton has also begun to be harvested sporadically. Currently, machine-picked cotton is mainly harvested in the northern Xinjiang region, and the sales price is concentrated at 5.0-5.1 yuan/kg. Previously, some market participants expected the price to not exceed 5 yuan/kg.
In general, the price of new cotton in the mainland is relatively stable now, but the market price in Xinjiang has not yet reached a consensus. According to feedback from some cotton enterprises in Xinjiang, the price of seed cotton is now higher than expected, and there is no clear price for cotton seeds and other by-products, so for the time being, the method of “purchasing first and pricing later” will be used to avoid risks. It is expected that the final purchase price will be determined later this month after the market price is basically clear. Compared with the first ten days of this month, the price of Zheng cotton futures has increased recently, which has also provided a certain impetus for the rise in new cotton prices. However, whether it will continue to rise in the future must be determined based on the actual situation. </p
