Introduction: In 2020, the price of viscose staple fiber continued to hit new lows, and cash flow also fell sharply. Earlier articles mentioned that in the semi-annual reports of listed companies involved in the viscose staple fiber business, all the net profits attributable to the parent company were negative. Loss status. In the first half of the year, due to the epidemic, it was difficult for the industry to effectively exchange volume even if it offered price concessions. In the second half of the year, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the existence of external rigid demand orders, viscose staple fiber urgently needs to slow down losses in order to appropriately neutralize the full-year profit. Therefore, Since the last wave of sharp price discounts for viscose staple fiber at the end of July, the market has gradually begun to move upward. Even though the increase is slow, as of the close of trading on September 14, the overall average price of the viscose staple fiber industry has been relatively low. The cumulative increase is 550 yuan/ton.
It has been 55 days since the low-priced shipment of viscose staple fiber in late July. In the past two months, the actual transaction price of the viscose staple fiber industry has increased cumulatively. It is only 550 yuan/ton. At present, the finished product inventory of most manufacturers is low. At the same time, with the urgent need for profit recovery, the company’s offer has even increased to 9,500 yuan/ton. For the viscose staple fiber industry, this price can turn cash flow. A negative is a positive, but it is a heavy pressure for the downstream. The market price power finally turns to the seller’s direction. The acceptance price of 9,500 yuan/ton is still concentrated among the buyers, and the viscose rise is still limited. The mentality of the industry is more contradictory.
The processing fee for the largest buyer of rayon yarn is still low
The main buyer in the viscose staple fiber chain is undoubtedly rayon yarn, but the prices of most varieties of rayon yarn have not shown synchronized trends. In terms of follow-up efforts, only vortex spinning was at a low price in the early stage. The market price rose rapidly due to the follow-up of external orders, but the growth rate of ring-spun, siro and compact siro-spun rayon yarns was slow.
With the slow follow-up of rayon yarn prices, product disk processing fees will not be effectively recovered. According to the current ring spinning According to the count calculation of conventional open-end yarns, the current price of viscose staple fiber acceptable to yarn companies is still between 8,500-8,700 yuan/ton, which contrasts with the intention of viscose staple fiber manufacturers to restore the price to 9,200 yuan/ton. Considering the price per ton or even 9,500 yuan/ton, there is still room for 500-1,000 yuan/ton.
There are relatively sufficient low-price orders for rayon yarn but insufficient new-price orders
If it is necessary to improve the yarn enterprises’ acceptance of new prices for viscose staple fiber, it also needs to follow up on yarn prices. , but judging from the actual situation, although there are orders in the rayon yarn market, most of the inquiring parties are traders, and the bid prices are low, and the demand from direct downstream users is relatively average. If yarn companies hold low-price viscose staple fiber orders, they can Undertake this part of the order, but if the order is large, lasts for a long time, and the viscose staple fiber price increases, the yarn company will eventually cause its own losses; but if the current viscose staple fiber price is used to calculate the cost of selling yarn, the customer accepts The level will be greatly reduced, but judging from the current low status of viscose staple fiber stocks, yarn companies are not sure that the price of viscose staple fiber will fall again. Therefore, low-price orders will eventually cause the risk of losses. Under the current situation, rayon yarn companies The only way to reduce the number of low-priced new orders is to reduce the number of low-priced new orders. Even if there is a certain amount of physical inventory, most spinning mills are unwilling to sell at low prices again.
How long can the support of low inventory of viscose staple fiber be maintained?
Viscose short fiber The physical inventory of fiber enterprises has continued to decline since late July. It is expected that the ending inventory in September will fall to the low level for the year. There will be no pressure on the price of viscose staple fiber in September. However, if there are double festivals in October, and the downstream cannot bear the viscose Under the new price of viscose staple fiber, it is estimated that the production and sales rate of viscose staple fiber will fall by 30 percentage points. When the output of viscose staple fiber in October is estimated at 310,000 tons, it is likely that the physical supply of viscose staple fiber will decline during the end of October. The inventory has returned to the state at the end of July, and the winter epidemic situation cannot be determined, and the domestic control measures in the same period last year may make the market worse; however, if the decline in production and sales rate is controlled at 10-15 percentage points, viscose staple fiber inventory will be low The status will last until November without any worries.
Even if the trading volume in October is to be guaranteed, viscose staple fiber may be able to increase prices Stimulating an improvement in the production and sales rate of the entire chain to accept the new price of viscose staple fiber. However, since September, this price increase has no longer been as useful as it was in stimulating an improvement in downstream orders; on the other hand, it may remain within the acceptable range of downstream yarn enterprises. Stimulating transactions, when yarn demand really improves in November, the chain price will continue to move up. </p
