Affected by the global spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, my country’s textile and apparel trade situation was unusual in the first half of this year. Entering May and June, some data have rebounded. The overall situation in the second half of the year is complex and changeable, and we still need to pay close attention.
According to customs statistics, in May 2020, my country’s textile and apparel trade volume was US$31.25 billion, an increase of 2.03% %, of which exports were US$29.88 billion, an increase of 25.4%, imports were US$1.37 billion, a decrease of 36.5%, and the trade surplus for the month was US$28.51 billion, an increase of 31.5%. From January to May 2020, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$107.12 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. Among them, exports were US$97.91 billion, down 1.7%; imports were US$9.21 billion, down 8.7%, and the cumulative trade surplus was US$88.7 billion, down 0.9%.
According to the latest customs data, in June, my country’s clothing exports were US$12.87 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% and a month-on-month increase of 40.5%. From February to June, my country’s clothing exports fell by 63.6%, 22%, 27.9%, 24.9% and 10.3% respectively year-on-year. The decline has shown a narrowing trend since May.
Epidemic prevention materials are still the main force in export growth
In May, the world As the epidemic continues to spread, the export scale of China’s anti-epidemic materials has further expanded, driving the overall export of textiles and clothing to achieve a rapid growth of 25.4%, an increase of 14 percentage points compared with April. Exports of textile and clothing anti-epidemic materials in that month were US$16.24 billion, accounting for 54.4% of textile and clothing exports, of which masks and protective clothing exports were US$13.7 billion and US$1.52 billion respectively.
Exports of conventional commodities are still subject to shrinking market demand, and exports of bulk commodities such as yarn, fabrics, and clothing have not yet recovered. sign.
Sluggish market demand has led to a decrease in the import of upstream intermediate products. At the same time, due to the slow recovery of domestic consumption, clothing imports have also experienced negative growth. This resulted in a significant drop of 36.5% in overall textile and clothing imports in May.
The difference between general trade and processing trade exports is obvious
General trade and processing trade There are obvious differences in the trend of trade exports. In May, exports under general trade increased by 36.2%, while processing trade fell by 41.2%. The increase and decrease were 18.2 and 12.3 percentage points higher than in April respectively. From January to May, cumulative exports of general trade recovered by 1.7%, while processing trade fell by 31.1%.
Since the epidemic spread to the world, China has always attached great importance to foreign aid. From January to May, a total of US$220 million in textile and clothing anti-epidemic materials, including masks, protective clothing, medical gloves, Shoe covers, medical surgical caps, cotton swabs, cotton balls, cotton swabs, etc.
Export growth to the three major traditional markets
Under the influence of the epidemic, the huge demand for epidemic prevention materials in the three major traditional consumer markets has rapidly pushed up China’s textile and clothing exports. In May, exports to the EU (27 countries excluding the UK) were US$7.64 billion, an increase of 112%, and the growth rate more than doubled for two consecutive months. Among them, mask exports were US$4.84 billion, accounting for 63.4% of exports. The growth rates for the United States and Japan were 48.4% and 79.3% respectively, and the growth rates remained high for two consecutive months. From January to May, our three major markets, the EU, the United States, and Japan, all achieved growth, with increases of 39.6%, 0.1%, and 19.9% respectively.
Sluggish terminal consumption in the international market has led to a reduction in demand for intermediate goods in ASEAN and other places, and China’s exports to ASEAN have continued to decline. Textile and apparel exports to ASEAN fell by 14% in May, of which textiles fell by 16%. From January to May, cumulative declines were 13.1% and 13.9% respectively.
The share of Chinese products in the three key markets continues to recover. In April, the large demand for anti-epidemic materials caused the three major markets of the European Union, the United States and Japan to return their procurement focus to China. China’s market share increased rapidly. This momentum continued in May. The share of China’s textile and apparel in the U.S. market that month It rose to 60.4% and 74% in the Japanese market. In contrast, ASEAN’s share fell back, with its market share falling to 16.4% and 18.5% respectively. Although the expansion of the market share of Chinese products is mainly driven by anti-epidemic materials (mainly masks in textiles), the share of clothing has also rebounded at the same time. In May, the share of Chinese clothing in the U.S. and Japanese markets reached 38.4% and 60.9% respectively, both exceeding the levels at the end of 2019. In April, the share of Chinese clothing in the EU market reached 27.7%, close to the level at the end of 2019. level.
Commodity exports are sluggish and imports are shrinking
In May, epidemic prevention materials The scale of exports continues to expand, becoming the main driving force for double-digit growth in textile and apparel exports. From January to May, the cumulative export of anti-epidemic materials was US$27.95 billion, accounting for 28.5% of total exports, of which masks and protective clothing were exported at US$22.49 billion and US$2.54 billion respectively.
Traditional commodity exports remain sluggish, yarn in May Exports of the three major categories of goods, fabrics and knitted garments fell by 57.2%, 46.2% and 27.4% respectively. Among them, yarn performed the weakest, with monthly exports continuing to shrink, both year-on-year and month-on-month. From January to May, exports of the three major categories of commodities fell by 28.7%, 30% and 24.1% respectively.
Textile and clothing imports have been shrinking month by month since March, and the import volume fell in May to US$1.37 billion, a new monthly low for the year. Imports fell by 36.5% year-on-year and month-on-month by 20% respectively. Among them, textiles and clothing fell by 40.8% and 25.6% year-on-year respectively, and major commodity yarns and fabrics fell by 53% and 48.4% respectively. Clothing, which maintained a good import trend in the early stage, also declined, with the import of needle-woven clothing falling by 31.2%.
January As of May, textile and clothing imports fell by 9.1% and 7.9% respectively.
Cotton imports continued to fall
In May, the decline in cotton imports accelerated, with only 70,000 tons imported that month, the lowest monthly import in the past three years. The year-on-year and month-on-month decreases were 61.1% and 44% respectively. The United States continued to surpass Brazil that month China has become China’s largest source of cotton imports. Imports from the United States fell by 35.2%, a smaller decline than other countries (regions). From January to May, cotton imports totaled 806,000 tons, a decrease of 21%, of which imports from Brazil and the United States were respectively Growth of 29.2% and 27%.
China Cotton Association analyzed that in May, the domestic epidemic situation continued to improve steadily, the economic operation continued to recover, production demand continued to improve, and domestic cotton prices rose steadily. International cotton prices fluctuated due to the ongoing epidemic and unstable Sino-US relations. At the end of the month, China’s cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 11,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 306 yuan from the end of the previous month; the monthly average price was 11,644 yuan/ton, an increase of 248 yuan from the previous month, and a decrease of 3,425 yuan from the same period last year. China’s imported cotton price index FC Index M Both were 67.78 cents/pound, up 2.64 cents from the previous month. At the end of the month, they were 66.26 cents/pound, lower than 2.32 cents/pound at the end of last month. The 1% tariff discounted RMB 11,522/ton, which was lower than the domestic spot price of RMB 285 during the same period. , the fluctuation range of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 690 yuan/ton.
There are signs of recovery in clothing exports in June, but the third quarter is not optimistic.
According to customs statistics, in the first half of the year, China’s apparel exports totaled US$51.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. In the month of June, my country’s clothing exports were US$12.87 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% and a month-on-month increase of 40.5%. From February to June, my country’s clothing exports fell by 63.6%, 22%, 27.9%, 24.9% and 10.3% respectively year-on-year. The decline has shown a narrowing trend since May.
From the international market, since the outbreak of the epidemic in April and the economic shutdown caused a cliff-like decline in consumption, in May, the major market economies restarted and demand bottomed out. Clothing retail sales in the United States and the European Union surged by 188% and 130.7% month-on-month respectively in May, the UK increased by 17.6% month-on-month, and Japan’s clothing retail sales increased by 41.9% month-on-month. The start of new orders for summer clothing has led to a recovery and month-on-month growth in my country’s clothing exports in June.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, due to the sharp decline in spring clothing sales in the international market, many brands said they will cancel some autumn orders and sell spring inventory in the autumn. Nike said it has canceled about 30% of factory orders before the fall and year-end shopping seasons. H&M said it will sell some out-of-season spring stock in the fall. Ralph Lauren said it had canceled about two-thirds of its fall orders; Levi Strauss & Co. said it would put some unsold basic clothing on shelves in the fall. Therefore, it is expected that my country’s exports will be difficult to see a significant improvement in the third quarter. </p
