Zheng cotton has been rising steadily in the past two weeks, and the main contract of CF2009 has exceeded the previous high of 12,155 yuan/ton. When the confrontation between long and short views in the market was still fierce, Zheng Mian responded to everything with a rising K-line. At present, Zheng Mian is at the intersection of “bear and bull”, and the future trend is promising.
The current market investment sentiment is high. In the first half of this year, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market was 2521,727,273 lots (more than 2.5 billion), and the cumulative turnover was 165,466.052 billion yuan (more than 165 trillion yuan), an increase of 45.35% year-on-year respectively. % and 28.70%. With such a huge amount of trading, it is not surprising that most commodities fluctuate upward. Compared with the original futures market, where only one or two star products could appear each year, this year there are significantly more products showing trending trends. The global epidemic has led to commodity value investment depressions, and returns will only be delayed, but they will never be absent.
The fundamental contradiction of a commodity is directly proportional to the market trend. The more prominent the fundamental contradiction, the greater the market trend, and vice versa. Judging from current fundamental data, cotton inventories are still large. According to statistics from relevant agencies, as of the end of June, the national cotton commercial inventory was 3.23 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%. A survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System showed that as of the beginning of July, the national cotton industry inventory was approximately 630,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.6%. A year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. The decline in industrial and commercial inventories, combined with the reduction in warehouse receipts, has gradually released the pressure on cotton inventories. Of course, don’t expect a trend in cotton in the short term. After all, the absolute quantity of inventory remains high, and the current situation of supply exceeding demand has not changed. The driving force for rising prices now is value restoration.
The number of confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus worldwide has exceeded 10 million, and the world’s economic development has regressed. In conjunction with the central banks of various countries, they have successively “released water” to rescue the market, which has led to the emergence of century-old investment opportunities for most commodities, and cotton is no exception. In a bear market, it is difficult for retail investors to make money, even in a bull market. What’s more, cotton is still in the bear-bull transition period, and the depth and frequency of market fluctuations will deepen or accelerate. There is no doubt that the future trend of cotton is bullish, but when it rises is critical. According to the author’s judgment, at the end of the bear market, the CF2009 contract is predicted to fall further, but the early bottom has been consolidated and the room for decline is limited. Once the main contract returns to the CF2101 contract, the cotton trend will continue to fluctuate upward.
The current problem of reduced orders in the cotton spinning industry cannot be ignored. On the one hand, we must see that the textile industry is now in trouble. It will still take time to recover demand, which cannot be solved overnight. Therefore, the price of cotton has dropped to this level. On the other hand, we see that all walks of life in the country, not just the cotton spinning industry, have survived the worst period, and expectations for a better future are becoming a reality. We should mainly go long on dips now. The current predicament does not represent the future. The traditional textile peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is coming. At this time, companies will receive orders for next spring. It is not easy to conclude whether the orders will be strong by then. It is certain that it will at least be better than now.
In fact, the outside world does not need to worry too much about the direction of Sino-US economic and trade relations that the market is worried about. During the 18 months of Sino-US trade friction, cotton prices have fluctuated at 13,000-14,000 yuan/ton, only due to the new coronavirus pneumonia. The impact of the virus has only fallen to a low level, and the economic and trade friction between China and the United States is not as pessimistic as everyone imagined.
Recently, Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, spoke at a Sino-US think tank media video forum and believed that Sino-US economic and trade relations are not decoupled as predicted by the outside world. On the contrary, through the efforts of both sides, Sino-US import and export It will stabilize and pick up in the third quarter of this year, and trade between the two sides will return to positive growth during the year. It is understood that although exports to the United States recorded negative growth in May, the decline has been greatly narrowed. In June, orders from the United States were the largest in a month so far this year. They were concentrated in medical consumer goods, household appliances, textiles, sporting goods, bags, toys, etc. In particular, long-term orders gradually increased and showed a good trend. This has It is helpful for Chinese companies to prepare materials, start production and make annual planning arrangements.
In short, expectations for rising cotton prices in the future are becoming stronger. Of course, at this time, we must be more cautious. After all, risk control is always the first priority. </p
