In recent days, the most powerful source of polyester is the international oil price. Due to the easing of investors’ concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market and the news that the crude oil production reduction agreement may be extended, oil prices continue to rise. , the callback did not appear. Crude oil rebounded from the bottom and made a beautiful “turnaround.”
As Thursday approaches, the expectation that OPEC will extend its production cuts gives bulls a reason to continue to push for gains. Oil prices continue to hit new highs since the rebound. On June 3, the August contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures directly hit $40 in early trading, the first time since March 6 this year.
In this round of OPEC meeting, there is news that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached an agreement to extend for at least one month. This means that the task of reducing production by 9.7 million barrels will continue until the end of July, giving the crude oil market more opportunities to balance. At the same time, Iraq once again stated that it will fulfill its production reduction obligations and reduce crude oil production to near the limit. These statements by OPEC are the premise for oil prices to be arrogant, and also the confidence of bulls not to pull back.
As flour becomes more expensive, bread will naturally increase in price. The rise in crude oil will inevitably have an impact on the polyester industry chain. This sudden retaliatory rise in crude oil has triggered a rise in the upstream and downstream polyester markets.
For the first time, PTA and ethylene glycol futures prices have both stabilized at 3,700 points. In terms of PTA, the main 2009 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange PTA futures surged to 3,774 yuan/ton in early trading. In terms of ethylene glycol, the main 2009 contract of ethylene glycol futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once stood at 3,847 yuan/ton in early trading.
As the most direct raw material for polyester filament, the rebound of the PTA and ethylene glycol markets has always been a driving force for the production and sales of polyester filament. It will have a certain stimulating effect, especially in the case of PTA. Once there is a sharp rise, the production and sales of polyester yarn will inevitably respond. The continuous rise in international oil prices and polymerization costs has caused many downstream polyester filament yarn factories to have a certain intention of bargain hunting. Driven by this, the production and sales data of polyester filament yarn factories have once again increased. On the first day of June, the production and sales of the polyester yarn market ushered in a “good start”! Among them, some POY production and sales are 100%, 200%, and 100%; some FDY production and sales are 260%, 250%, and 120%; some DTY production and sales are 75%, 100%, and 80%. This time, less than a week has passed since the last centralized replenishment.
Although the production and sales of polyester filament yarn have not been in a state of surge in the past two days, compared with the previous sluggish production and sales, in recent days There are gradually signs of improvement. After many previous increases in volume, polyester filament factory inventories have dropped to neutral levels, and some second- and third-tier factories are even empty. Although after the last increase in volume, polyester filament yarn prices have been sluggish for a period of time. The factory’s finished product inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, but after this increase in volume, the polyester filament factory has destocked to varying degrees, and the factory inventory level has basically returned to the level last weekend.
With the boost of production and sales and crude oil, on the 3rd, some polyester manufacturers began to quote prices of 50-100 yuan. /ton of room for upward adjustment. Can polyester filament finally feel proud?
As the most direct raw material for polyester filament, the rebound in the PTA and ethylene glycol markets has always been able to stimulate the production and sales of polyester filament. In the past two days, the price of polyester raw materials There was a large increase, and the upstream polyester raw material market performed strongly, which also gave a “booster” to the production and sales of polyester yarn! At the same time, market suppliers are currently raising prices. From a cost perspective, the polyester market price will be boosted in the short term.
Secondly, let’s look at the downstream demand. Whether the polyester filament market can start the “price increase” mode, demand must be the top priority. For downstream weaving manufacturers, there is more or less a mentality of buying up and not buying down; when the price of polyester filament is low, many weaving manufacturers are afraid of losing money and do not dare to stock up in batches. Most of them are cautious and wait and see, and make up for small orders. goods.
There is no doubt that since June, although the terminal order situation is still not ideal, weaving companies dare not easily reduce production due to cost constraints. Affected by this, the current situation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving The machine start-up rate has basically declined compared with the previous level, but it is still maintained at a level of about 70%. The downstream demand for polyester yarn is still acceptable. At the same time, after experiencing a long period of low production and sales in the early stage, downstream companies also have replenishment needs.
Is polyester filament really going to rebound at low prices? If production and sales can continue to rise in the market outlook, the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers will be alleviated.The filament market is not far away from the road of “price increase”! However, it needs to be reminded that according to previous market visits, as the recovery after the epidemic is still unclear, the intention to reduce the weaving operation is gradually strengthening, and we need to be cautious about the renewed decline in the level of downstream rigid demand. </p
