Market Profile
Opinion Strategy
On the original PTA supply side last week, the PTA load has been adjusted this week, and the current load is about 86%. In terms of raw materials, PX prices fell during the week, but the naphtha-PX processing gap continued to shrink, PX refining profits were damaged, and there are expectations for PX maintenance in the later period, which provides certain support for PX prices. At present, the PTA circulation inventory is around 2.3 million tons, which is the main resistance to the rebound of PTA. When profits are still available, the motivation for PTA device maintenance is not strong. Zhongtai, Yisheng, and Yizheng units have seasonal maintenance plans in June, and the inventory pressure is expected to be alleviated. We will continue to pay attention to the maintenance fulfillment status in the future. In terms of downstream demand, the domestic polyester operating rate was raised to 89.68%, and polyester terminals purchased on demand during the week. Affected by the foreign epidemic, the overall demand is still clear, and the motivation for downstream speculative purchasing still exists; domestic early-stage delayed orders have begun production, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms The operating rate rebounded to 71.2%. In the short term, PTA may follow the range fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it will be difficult for it to rise sharply or fall sharply.
In terms of ethylene glycol, only the production of ethylene glycol from naphtha in China is still profitable. The operating rate of ethylene glycol has slightly increased to 54.3%, and the load of coal chemical industry is around 35%. There is the possibility of further exploration in the later period. At the same time, high port inventories are filling the supply gap and putting pressure on price rebounds. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term.
Strategic suggestions
Wait and see (for reference only)
Mainly Risk points
1. The progress of the epidemic has triggered a sharp decline in downstream demand, which will compress raw material profits upward.
2. OPEC+’s ineffective implementation of production cuts has triggered a further collapse of the center of gravity of crude oil prices.
</p
