At 7 o’clock this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed by CBS’s “60 Minutes” program. In the interview, Powell admitted that the prediction of a peak unemployment rate of 20% to 25% was roughly correct, and that U.S. GDP in the second quarter could easily reach a contraction of 20% to 30%. Powell said the Fed has not run out of ammunition and can take more steps if needed. Both the Fed and Congress have more work to do to deal with the economic impact of the epidemic. The Fed and Congress have more work to do to deal with the economic impact of the epidemic. The economy can start to improve soon, but overall Recovery from the pandemic will require restoring confidence.
In addition, Powell once again talked about negative interest rates: “Members of the FOMC and I still believe that negative interest rates are detrimental to It may not be an appropriate or useful policy for the United States.”
During Powell’s speech, spot gold continued to rise. As of 7:30 a.m., spot gold broke through the previous high of $1,754.46 per ounce, setting a new high since October 2012. In addition, Brent crude oil rose by 3% after opening this morning to US$33.48/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures July contract rose by more than 3% and is currently at US$30.49/barrel. U.S. stock index futures also rose across the board.
When cases of COVID-19 infection are reported in major regions around the world, South America seems relatively calm. However, this calm state was broken in mid-to-late February, and then large-scale epidemics broke out in countries in South America.
The epidemic in South America is still escalating. According to the latest statistics on the COVID-19 epidemic released by the Brazilian Ministry of Health on the 16th, as of 19:00 local time on the 16th, Brazil had 14,919 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 within 24 hours, bringing the total to 233,142. The cumulative number of cases in Brazil has surpassed Spain and Italy, making it the country with the fourth largest number of cases in the world.
The picture shows the latest data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health
In addition, the epidemic situation in Peru and Chile, which are close neighbors of Brazil, is not optimistic. The number of confirmed cases in Peru has exceeded 80,000, and the death toll has exceeded 2,500, and the rate of increase is still increasing. With more than 40,000 confirmed cases in Chile, the Chilean government implemented compulsory quarantine measures in the capital and eight cities in the north-central part of the country starting from the 16th.
Although in early April, some Brazilian experts said that soybean exports to China would not be affected by the epidemic, but now that the epidemic is developing rapidly, what is the situation of Brazil’s soybean and iron ore exports? Can Chile and Peru, the two major copper ore exporters, withstand the pressure?
The Brazilian president criticized the comprehensive quarantine policy, and the two health ministers resigned one after another
According to Xinhuanet, Brazil’s two health ministers resigned within a month due to differences with President Bolsonaro on epidemic prevention. Bolsonaro believes that quarantine measures should be relaxed, as comprehensive quarantine will harm economic development. He continued to criticize the comprehensive quarantine policy on social media on the 16th, saying that unemployment, hunger and poverty will be the future of supporters of this policy.
The Office of the Brazilian Vice President issued a statement stating that because a service staff member who had close contact with Brazilian Vice President Morang was diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia, Morang and his wife underwent medical treatment on the 16th. Get tested for COVID-19 and self-isolate at home.
The picture shows Brazilian Vice President Morão
President Bolsonaro In an interview with the media at the entrance of the Presidential Palace on the 16th, Luo still firmly supported the resumption of business activities and the end of large-scale quarantine as soon as possible. He said that the shutdown and quarantine measures taken by governors and mayors will bring more chaos, hunger and poverty to Brazil. 38 million people without formal jobs have lost everything in the epidemic. He is worried that once Brazil’s social economy collapses, it will be difficult to recover. However, as the epidemic situation in Brazil is almost out of control, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day exceeding 10,000, most Brazilian states and municipal governments have no plans to relax social isolation, and instead have strengthened isolation measures.
Chile’s daily death cases hit a new high, and Peruvian football star was diagnosed
On the 16th local time, Chile had 1,886 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in a single day, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 41,428. There were 27 new deaths, bringing the total number of deaths to 421. Among them, the number of daily deaths has reached the highest record since the outbreak in Chile in early March. Currently, the Santiago Capital Region is the most severely affected area in Chile, accounting for nearly 80% of the country’s confirmed cases and about 60% of its deaths.
Starting from the 16th, the Chilean government implemented mandatory quarantine measures for all 38 towns under the jurisdiction of the Santiago Capital Region and 8 cities in the north-central part of the country. About 14,000 military police were deployed in the Santiago area to conduct street patrols and investigate violations of orders. This is the largest and most stringent epidemic prevention and control measure taken by the Chilean government since the outbreak, involving more than 8 million people, accounting for approximately 42.5% of the country’s total population.
The picture shows Chilean soldiers on duty on the streets on May 16
At present, the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in Chile The number of cases ranks fourth in Latin America, rankingWell, the same is true. Mining is one of Peru’s important pillar industries, with output accounting for 12% of GDP and exports accounting for 59% of total exports. Therefore, when the epidemic breaks out on a large scale and the economy is severely affected, Chile and Peru have a more urgent need to restart mining. “Chile and Peru will definitely create conditions as much as possible to meet the resumption of production and work in the mining and related export industries,” Zhang Weixin said. The main demand for copper mines is in China, and the epidemic in China has been effectively controlled, demand continues to recover, and the consumption capacity of copper mines and refined copper has been restored, which is also conducive to the resumption of related industries in Chile, Peru and other countries. In terms of operational feasibility, as long as the two countries closely monitor each mine and restore logistics channels to and from China, they don’t have to worry about demand. Exports can quickly recover and this pillar industry can be reactivated. ”
In terms of negative impacts, Zhang Weixin said that considering that the current epidemic situation in South America is relatively serious, the mining industry is indeed facing greater risks in hastily resuming work. Once a large-scale cluster of infections occurs, it will lead to copper Mine supply has further shrunk. Logistics issues also need to be considered. Due to the severity of the epidemic in South America, logistics channels may not be as convenient as usual, which will eventually have some adverse effects on the export of copper mines.
As for the future trend of copper prices, Zhang Weixin expressed that he is not optimistic. “Recent investment and consumption replenishment have led to tight copper supply and demand, and copper prices have ushered in a period of strong rise. However, with the completion of terminal centralized procurement, demand began to slow down, and the momentum for rising copper prices has significantly weakened. From a long-term perspective, the supply of copper mines is gradually recovering, and the current mismatch between supply and demand will be repaired. Moreover, the global economy will continue to be affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. Medium and long-term demand is still not optimistic, and copper prices face the risk of a second round of decline. . However, judging from the data in April, investment has not really taken off yet. In the absence of a significant recovery in consumption, policies related to promotional fees are expected to continue to take off. These factors will keep copper demand stable in the medium term and reduce copper prices. Downward pressure. “Zhang Weixin said.</p
