The global epidemic outbreak and the Russian-Tsarist crude oil war have had an impact on the market. Whenever there is a disturbance, it does not matter whether it is true or false, it will subvert your imagination. Investors analyze it from all angles: after taking into account fundamentals, technical aspects, and funds, it shows a short-selling pattern. The main force completely controls the situation on the market. It shows signs of panic in April. However, everything seems so powerless under Twitter. Many veterans People joked that the current market situation is really “a fierce analysis, and the rise and fall depend entirely on Trump”
Last night’s international crude oil price perfectly verified the sentence in the title. Not only did crude oil rise sharply, but on the 3rd Bulk textile raw materials also surged, with Mr. Xie’s remarks boosting global markets.
As of the close of the 3rd, WTI crude oil was the main force The contract rose 24.67% to US$25.32/barrel, setting a record for the largest single-day increase in history. The main Brent crude oil contract rose 17.8% to US$29.14/barrel. Similarly, the surge in crude oil has brought about a surge in polyester raw materials and even polyester filament. The ethylene glycol futures contract hit the daily limit at the end of the 2nd, and PTA also received a significant boost. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased to an average around 16:45 p.m. It is estimated to be around 300%, and some polyester factories even reach an astonishing 1,000%.
Then the future market will also be like this: one analysis is as fierce as a tiger, and the rise and fall depend entirely on Trump?
They all came to make trouble! Trump’s “unobtrusive talk” needs to be verified
If it is as Trump predicts, then we are worthy of international Let’s celebrate crude oil’s gains last night. In fact, as soon as Trump finished speaking, Saudi Arabia and other U.S. officials came to undermine him one after another, without taking the commander-in-chief’s face seriously at all.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said that from the United States and Saudi Arabia Judging from the performance of OPEC+, the transition trend towards a global production reduction alliance is obvious. The United States is already impatient on the issue of production cuts. Shale oil producers are about to enter a period of large-scale bankruptcy. Once low oil prices continue, the wave of bankruptcies of oil companies will greatly affect the financial order of the United States. The operation of maintaining financial stability in the United States will It will be more difficult. “Saudi Arabia expressed the hope that the G20 countries represented by the United States and Canada will also join in the reduction of production. If the United States can eventually join, there is a high probability that other countries will also participate.”
Yang An pointed out, Now the market has truly reached the point where the United States coordinates production cuts. If Trump wants to achieve an increase in oil prices, he must first persuade domestic producers to actively cooperate, and secondly, he must conduct a full exchange of interests with Russia. There is still considerable resistance to the actual implementation of the production reduction alliance. Therefore, although oil prices have gotten rid of the oscillating downward pattern, remember to chase higher in short-term operations. The market still needs time to verify the authenticity of Trump’s words!
The global epidemic outbreak is the biggest problem for the market!
What cannot be ignored is that the current economic crisis caused by the global epidemic is still the biggest problem hindering the market. Countless factories around the world have suspended production due to the ongoing epidemic. Recently, the United States announced that epidemic prevention measures will be extended until April 30, and Spain suspended all non-essential production work. At the same time, chemical giant BASF has reported 4 new cases of confirmed cases among its employees, and US factories will reduce production by 47% of contracted work. Countless factories around the world have halted production and announced that all orders will be suspended or cancelled. The global economy is stalling due to the epidemic.
In the context of globalization, one move affects the whole body. The continued fermentation of the epidemic in the country where the customer is located has triggered a chain reaction in the domestic and foreign trade industry. From the perspective of export sales data, from January to February due to the inability to deliver goods normally due to the domestic epidemic, and the cancellation of some orders, exports dropped significantly by 20%. From March to April, the overseas epidemic spread, consumption dropped, and foreign businessmen were unable to receive goods normally. , the export growth rate is expected to continue to decline (currently, the proportion of cancellation or delay of foreign orders from March to April ranges from 30-50%). Due to the large-scale cancellation or postponement of export orders and the shrinkage of domestic sales orders, woven gray fabrics cannot be shipped, and gray fabric inventories are rising again (warp knitting inventories are more than 20 days, and water-jet weaving inventories are more than 40 days). A few weaving companies They began to sell goods at low prices, and the overall mentality of the downstream market was panicked. At the same time, the start-up of texturing and weaving is facing a second correction. The decline in start-up period is at the end of March and early April. The periodic correction in start-up may exceed 20%, and the upcoming Tomb Sweeping Day holiday may even drop more. If crude oil prices return to low levels, terminal panic will still be difficult to dissipate even with aggressive price cuts, and there will be few bargain hunters and stockpiling, and pulse-type production and sales will return.
Recently, major polyester filament yarn manufacturers with high inventories are facing pressure to reduce production. Recently, we have heard that some major filament yarn manufacturers have taken measures to reduce production. So for polyester companies, what they are currently facing can be said to be a situation similar to a prisoner’s dilemma. Even if individual companies take the initiative to reduce production shutdowns, the overall domestic�The trend of oversupply remains difficult to shake, inventories continue to accumulate, and price pressure continues.
The market has entered a sideways stage, and future speculation should be a repeated opportunity
With the opening of the market this week, the difficult month of March has passed. From now on, will the beginning of April be in hard mode or easy mode? The early decline in the polyester industry can be seen as the energy and chemical sector’s follow-up to the cost collapse caused by the plunge in crude oil. At the same time, there is the negative impact of the increasing spread of overseas public health events. The editor believes that the procurement node and cycle of the polyester industry must start from two aspects, one is the recovery of the demand side, and the other is the stop of the cost side. The market has been adjusting for a long time now. If it falls again in the future, I think it will be an opportunity. Of course, it should be a local opportunity. I just say that there is no need to panic blindly. Nothing can be more eye-catching than guaranteed profits. It is still a great era of speculation. The market has entered a sideways stage. Speculation in the future should be a repeated opportunity!
For the polyester industry chain, the analysis here is as fierce as a tiger, and the rise and fall all depend on special… As for the situation in the past two days, I don’t know what you have to complain about. , why don’t you all talk about it?
<br
