PTA
Crude oil has rebounded, supply and demand have improved, and PTA is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In terms of spot goods, the supply side decreased, and spot quotations continued to rise during the day. Polyester and traders just needed to restock, and both basis and spot prices closed up. On October 9, the spot price of PTA closed up 71 to 6004 yuan/ton, and the spot average basis closed up 12 to 2401 42. In October, the main port delivery transaction 01 rose 40-50 yuan, and the trading atmosphere was good. In terms of processing fees, PX charges US$1,068/ton, and PTA processing fees reach 215.73 yuan/ton.
On October 9, Fuhua reduced its load, with PTA production capacity falling to 75.68% and polyester production capacity rising to 89.19%. As of October 5, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.01%, down 1.15% from last week. Some weaving factories were on holiday during the Double Holidays, and after the holidays, the weaving factories were slow to increase their workload. At present, weaving factories are taking on new orders and are running weakly, and the pressure on gray fabric inventory in the factory still exists. In the short term, the cautious attitude of the textile market still exists, and weaving operations are dominated by low-load operations.
Taken together, crude oil has rebounded, PTA processing fees are low, PTA supply is expected to shrink, polyester startup load is expected to pick up after the holidays, and PTA processing fees are expected to recover in the short term.
Strategy: Short-term supply and demand are expected to improve, and processing fees are low. The short-term PTA decline is expected to be limited. Pay attention to international oil price dynamics.
MEG
Affected by factors such as the sharp opening of crude oil and the strength of coal, ethylene glycol futures performed relatively defensively on the first day after the holiday. In terms of spot prices, Zhangjiagang spot prices opened near 4050. There was a lack of substantial positive support during the session, and the upward momentum was limited. It fluctuated in the 4020-4030 range for most of the session, and the spot price was negotiated near 4030 at the end of the day. On October 9, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang increased by 77 yuan/ton, and the closing price in the South China market increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4,120 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, it runs between 01-95 and 01-90.
On October 9, the total domestic ethylene glycol production started at 59.15% (down 0.33%), integrated production at 62.03% (stable), and coal chemical industry at 53.47% (down 0.97%). As of October 9, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was 1.0715 million tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from October 7. After the holiday, unloading was slow due to weather reasons, but shipments were acceptable under the support of rigid demand. Inventories at the main ports in East China fell narrowly this week.
The polyester production start-up increased to 89.19%. As of October 5, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.01%, a decrease of 1.15% from last week’s start-up. Some weaving factories took a break during the Double Holidays, and it was slow to pick up the workload after the holidays. At present, weaving factories are taking on new orders and are running weakly, and the pressure on gray fabric inventory in the factory still exists. In the short term, the cautious attitude of the textile market still exists, and weaving operations are dominated by low-load operations.
Overall, the maintenance supply side of some enterprises has slightly shrunk, the performance of the polyester demand side is acceptable, and the overall contradiction between supply and demand is not large. The international oil price has rebounded on the first day after the holiday, coal is strong, the cost side support is acceptable, and the cash flow of ethylene glycol is still At a low position, it is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate in a short-term range.
Strategy: The cost support of ethylene glycol is acceptable. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the supply pressure is not great. The demand-side polyester operating rate has increased with the end of the Asian Games. In the short term, ethylene glycol is expected to continue to fall without enough momentum.
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