In the first half of 2023, affected by factors such as falling raw material prices, deepening integration of the downstream rayon yarn market, rising cotton prices, and greater frequency and amplitude of polyester staple fiber fluctuations, the viscose staple fiber industry has experienced stable prices, rising loads, and a slight decline in the entire industry. There is a profit phenomenon. In the first half of the year, the average load of the entire viscose staple fiber industry was about 72.8%, and the output was about 1.9 million tons; the price ranged between 12,900 and 13,100 yuan/ton. With the entire textile industry’s low expectations for this year’s new cotton production, it is expected that viscose staple fiber will experience a phased upward trend in volume and price in the third and fourth quarters, and the entire industry will be able to maintain a certain gross profit margin.
Viscose staple fiber production and inventory changes
In the first half of this year, the overall load of the viscose staple fiber industry showed an upward trend, especially from early February to early March, when the industry load increased rapidly from 57% to 81%. This phenomenon has been relatively rare in recent years. After June, the overall load of the industry has basically remained at 75% to 78%.
Inventories in the viscose staple fiber industry showed a downward trend in the first half of the year. In early January, the industry inventory was around 16 days. Starting in late March, the viscose staple fiber industry began to destock. By mid-May, the inventory reached its lowest point this year. After entering June, the inventory days basically remained at 10~ 11 days.
While the production volume of viscose staple fiber is gradually increasing, the inventory continues to decline, indicating that the market (including downstream and intermediate channels) has an increasing preference and investment enthusiasm for viscose staple fiber, and the market is gradually paying more attention to viscose staple fiber. recover.
Price relationship between viscose staple fiber and dissolving pulp
The sources of dissolving pulp are divided into three categories: imported coniferous dissolving pulp, imported broadleaf dissolving pulp, and domestic dissolving pulp. The order in which buyers purchase dissolving pulp is: domestic dissolving pulp, imported broadleaf dissolving pulp, and finally the higher-priced one. Imported coniferous dissolving pulp. Affected by the large amplitude and frequency of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the RMB price of imported broadleaf dissolving pulp fluctuated strongly. In the first half of the year, the main transaction price of domestic dissolving pulp was around 7,200 yuan/ton.
From January to mid-to-early February, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is higher than that of imported broadleaf pulp. After late February, the price of imported broadleaf pulp is higher than that of domestic dissolving pulp. Because the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated greatly and frequently this year, the RMB price of imported broadleaf dissolving pulp fluctuates more strongly than that of domestic dissolving pulp, while the price of imported coniferous dissolving pulp continues to show a downward trend. It is worth noting that throughout March to June, the RMB price of imported dissolving pulp was higher than the price of domestic dissolving pulp, which shows that the supply of imported dissolving pulp in the market this year is still limited.
The price of dissolving pulp in the first half of the year was mainly stable. In the case of limited supply, the imported broadleaf dissolving pulp followed the quotation strategy of domestic dissolving pulp in the first half of the year. With the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, it continued to price its US dollars. The quotation is adjusted. This shows that in the first half of the year, although the supply of domestic dissolving pulp was limited, its pricing power in the market has increased compared with previous years.
In the first half of the year, the market price of viscose staple fiber was generally stable. The price difference between viscose staple fiber and dissolving pulp from January to June is basically 5,700 to 6,000 yuan/ton (see Figure 1), which can bring a certain gross profit to the viscose staple fiber industry.
In the first half of the year, the market price of viscose staple fiber ranged from 12,900 to 13,100 yuan/ton, with the price from February to June basically running at 13,100 yuan/ton. At the beginning of August, after the price of viscose staple fiber was reduced by 200 yuan/ton to 12,700~12,800 yuan/ton, a destocking process occurred in the market, resulting in a decrease in viscose staple fiber inventory.
Based on the market’s volume and price data from January to August, especially the data trend in the first half of the year, it can be initially concluded that when the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is around 73% and the price is between 13,000 and 13,100 yuan/ton, the market The preference and dosage of viscose staple fiber will show an upward trend. That is to say, if the viscose staple fiber market wants to be repaired, it needs to spontaneously adopt a strategy of matching volume and price. On the one hand, it can maintain the existing market status, and on the other hand, it can find ways to maintain its own cash flow and achieve gross profit from the perspective of business operations. Volume price balance strategy.
Price relationship between viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn
As the rayon yarn market downstream of viscose staple fiber, which varieties does the market prefer in the first half of the year? The answer to this question can be found in the “Siro spinning-ring spinning-vortex spinning 40S rayon yarn price trend” (see Figure 2). Judging from the price trend, the price trend of vortex spinning 40S rayon yarn and ring spinning 40S rayon yarn was relatively stable in the first half of the year. The price of Sirospun 40S rayon yarn increased from the initial price of 17,900 yuan/ton, which was the same as ring spinning 40S, to 19,800 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton (end of June), the upside potential is 1,900 Yuan/ton, an increase of 10.61%. Judging from the price increase, Siro spinning can be said to be the most outstanding product in the entire industry chain in the first half of the year, and its popularity exceeds that of vortex spinning. Under this circumstance, the overall performance of vortex spinning in the first half of the year was that supply exceeded demand and prices were sideways. In the future, due to the substitutable characteristics of the three varieties in some downstream varieties, the relationship between “price and volume” will�New changes will continue to emerge.
Analysis of the import and export situation of viscose staple fiber
From January to June 2023, my country imported 40,300 tons of viscose staple fiber, a year-on-year decrease of 22.65%; of which the year-on-year decreases from January to April were all above 13%, and March decreased by 56.82% year-on-year, which was the month with the largest year-on-year decrease in the first half of the year. In terms of prices, the average import price increased year-on-year from January to March, with the largest year-on-year increase of 9.76% in March. It showed a year-on-year decrease from April to June, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.72% in June, which was the largest year-on-year decrease in the first half of the year.
Looking at the import data of viscose staple fiber by country/region, the top five cumulative import volumes from January to June are: Indonesia, Austria, Thailand, Japan and India (see Table 1).
From January to June 2023, my country exported 142,400 tons of viscose staple fiber, a year-on-year decrease of 23.78%; each month’s export volume in the first half of the year showed a year-on-year decrease, with export volumes in January, February and June all declining by more than 20% year-on-year. %, the year-on-year decreases were: -45.06%, -30.70%, -28.10%. Looking at the average export price, except for the average export price in February which increased by 0.6% year-on-year, the remaining months all experienced year-on-year decreases. Looking at the export data of viscose staple fiber by country/region, the top five cumulative exports from January to June are: Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia.
It is not difficult to find from the import and export data of viscose staple fiber in the first half of the year that both import volume and export volume have declined by more than 20%. The decline in import volume can reflect that my country’s self-sufficiency rate of viscose staple fiber is constantly rising, including the decreasing dependence on foreign countries in terms of modal, lyocell, environmentally friendly viscose, etc.; but it also reflects that my country’s viscose staple fiber The price of fiber is relatively low in the international market. The most obvious thing is that the amount of viscose staple fiber imported from India in the first half of this year was only 1,807 yuan/ton, and its average import price was also obviously higher than the price in my country.
Although the export price of my country’s viscose staple fiber is low, it has not been reflected in the export volume. The most obvious example is that my country imported 18,686 tons of viscose staple fiber from Indonesia, with an average price of US$1,962/ton; but the average price of viscose staple fiber exported to Indonesia was US$1,861/ton, while the export volume was only 11,220 tons. Of course, The relationship between volume and price is only an intuitive reflection. On a deeper level, specific viscose staple fiber varieties, specifications, quality and other factors need to be considered.
At the same time, the obstruction of my country’s viscose staple fiber exports is also related to the fact that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security excluded Sino-Thai Chemical from the U.S. supply chain in the first half of this year. Similar incidents may still occur in the future, and the industry’s future import and export business need to prepare in advance.
Outlook for viscose staple fiber situation in the second half of the year
To sum up, from January to August, the installation load of the viscose staple fiber industry is in the process of recovery, and there is a possibility of exceeding 80% in the second half of the year. As the gross profit margin of the viscose staple fiber industry shows signs of improvement, the capital market and intermediate circulation links are paying more and more attention to the viscose staple fiber industry. Especially after June this year, polyester staple fiber entered a period of consolidation, while cotton Both market and futures prices experienced upward breakthroughs, causing the price difference between spot cotton prices and viscose staple fiber prices to once again widen to 5,000 yuan/ton (see Figure 3). After the first line, the market circulation link has been stable for viscose short fiber prices. Attention to fiber optic fiber is getting higher and higher. Especially September to October is the peak season in the traditional sense, and the market has a positive attitude towards the future performance of viscose staple fiber.
At this time, decision makers in the viscose staple fiber industry need to think about: What is the reasonable volume-price relationship for viscose staple fiber in the second half of the year? Should we continue to maintain the stable state in the first half of the year or increase the price of viscose staple fiber?
Judging from the import and export data in the first half of the year and the external market environment, the import and export situation of viscose staple fiber in the second half of the year is still not optimistic, which requires operators to still focus on developing domestic demand when making decisions.
Cotton and polyester staple fiber have been able to occupy or replace part of the viscose staple fiber market in recent years. This is mainly due to the fact that the prices of cotton and polyester staple fiber have been fluctuating to a certain extent and with high frequency in recent years, and market middlemen have obtained cotton. Or polyester staple fiber is more convenient than viscose staple fiber. This is also one of the main reasons why the viscose staple fiber sector is the only major textile raw material that has been cold. From the perspective of industry development, prices of cotton and polyester staple fiber may rise in the second half of the year due to supply problems; if viscose staple fiber needs to stabilize the hard-earned stability in the first half of the year and get out of the quagmire of losses, If the industry load reaches around 85% and supply and demand are still tightly balanced, it is not ruled out that the viscose staple fiber market will see both volume and price rise.