Recently, PTA futures have increased their positions significantly, breaking through the previous oscillation high. As of the closing on the 7th, the main PTA contract rose sharply by 128 yuan/ton to 5808 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25%, setting a new high in the past 2 months. It is understood that the high polyester load of 93.3% announced last Thursday has boosted market confidence, but such a strong single-day increase exceeded industry expectations.
The reason is that from the PTA itself, there is news that a major domestic supplier’s equipment has failed and the loss has dropped to 50%, and the impact is expected to last a week. In addition, the market’s Yangtze River delivery was also affected to a certain extent due to weather conditions. Overall, the sharp rise in the market on that day was related to the slight improvement in balance caused by the unplanned maintenance of the equipment.
From a macro level, there have been signs of easing in Sino-US relations recently. Domestic goods are generally in a state of recovery in demand, real estate policies have been relaxed, the Ministry of Commerce has drafted documents to promote home consumption, polyester inventories are low and production is starting, and the demand for market terminals is still maintained. Relatively optimistic expectations. In addition, the cost side of crude oil PX has also been supported recently. There will be no new production capacity of PX in the second half of the year, and processing fees will remain high for a long time.
Of course, low inventory and high production starts in the polyester market are the biggest driving force behind the recent surge in PTA. It is understood that the recent high production and high load of polyester have restored the confidence of the polyester industry, and the overall inventory of polyester is low. In particular, some differentiated polyester varieties are oversold, so polyester factories have plans to increase their load in the near future.
Currently, polyester is in a state of low inventory and high production. June gradually enters the off-season. The average monthly operating rate of polyester can reach about 92%. As of July 7, the immediate operating rate of polyester reached 93.5%. In the same period last year, polyester was affected by the epidemic. The operating rate is only about 84%. Compared with the data of the past five years, the operating rate of polyester is at the upper edge of the same period in the past five years. In her view, the polyester operating rate in the off-season this summer is at a high level for the same period in previous years, and the overall performance is not weak in the off-season.
At present, the processing difference in the PTA market is less than 300 yuan/ton, and the company’s profitability is poor; however, the downstream polyester production operation remains at a high level of around 93%, and new equipment continues to be put into production. According to the news, two sets of polyester plants totaling 1.05 million tons were newly invested in early July, and the polyester production capacity will be adjusted to 75.9 million tons. However, the current downstream polyester inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period in the past year, and is far lower than the same period last year. Therefore, the current product inventory does not put significant pressure on polyester plants, and the polyester load is expected to be maintained. Therefore, under the premise of strong demand, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is not prominent, and the driving force of poor PTA processing is not strong; however, as the temperature rises across the country, concerns about power cuts have resurfaced, which may first appear in the terminal weaving, printing and dyeing industry, and there is also a demand side There is a certain risk of decline, and the risk of a fall in the valuation of raw material PX is another important potential negative for the market.
Overall, the demand for oil blending and chemical industry of aromatics is an important reason for the strong price performance of aromatics in the past two years. The expansion of the scope of domestic refined oil consumption tax will raise the threshold for the flow of domestic aromatic hydrocarbons and other chemical raw materials to the refined oil market, which will help chemical raw materials return to the chemical market. At present, there are still some PX units in China that have reduced their load or shut down due to shortage of raw materials. After chemical raw materials return to the chemical market, there is room for improvement in the operating rate of these units. Overseas demand for aromatics oil blending may weaken significantly by August, and overseas PX supply is also expected to rebound. Therefore, PX’s high valuation may face downside risks, which is an important negative factor for PTA’s market outlook. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of power cuts that may be caused by high temperature weather on the terminal weaving industry.