In July, the textile industry entered the off-season. The production and sales rates of textile enterprises in various places dropped, and there were signs of accumulation of inventory. In addition, various recent bad news continued and the weather speculation gradually cooled down. The continuous rising trend of Zheng cotton turned into a volatile trend.
At present, Xinjiang is dominated by sunny weather, with temperatures remaining high, and cotton growing rapidly. Although some areas were severely affected by the weather in the early stage, as the weather improves in the later period, cotton yield losses are expected to be compensated to a certain extent. Concerns about the decline in cotton production this year mainly come from the decline in sown area. According to a survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, the actual cotton sowing area nationwide in 2023 was 41.402 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4.768 million acres, a decrease of 10.3%; among which, the actual cotton sowing area in Xinjiang was 36.163 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 3.155 million acres, a decrease of 10.3%. 8.0%. The weather and area production reduction caused cotton prices to rise sharply in May and June, and now the market prices have been fully reflected.
Let’s look at the cotton supply and demand situation. According to June data from the United States Department of Agriculture, global cotton production in 2023 is 25.41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.57%; global cotton consumption is 25.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.02%. The production and demand situation has changed from the previous year’s output to Demand becomes a tight balance between supply and demand. According to June data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, China’s cotton production in 2023 was 6.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.17%; consumption was 7.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.31%; the production-demand gap expanded from 830,000 tons in the previous year to 1.63 million Ton. This has also led to varying degrees of cotton price increases.
If we look at the number of gaps alone, the signs of this wave of capital speculation are obvious. Although the gap between domestic cotton production and demand has expanded, global cotton supply and demand are in a tight balance. Even if there is a gap, it will not cause a sharp rise in prices. Moreover, by adjusting reserve cotton and cotton The import quota policy can ensure the demand for cotton for domestic production. At present, market fluctuations have narrowed due to fear of market capital. How cotton prices will operate in the future, the author believes that foreign cotton planting area and weather conditions will still cause certain disturbances to cotton production. China is also facing the same situation, especially whether the rush to harvest during the acquisition period will reappear, which will also have an important impact on cotton prices. Influence. At the same time, downstream consumption is sluggish and orders are lower than expected, which will also have a negative impact on cotton prices. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and cotton prices continue to maintain a volatile trend.