Seeing that March is already halfway through, the global market is “frozen to three feet cold”. Black Monday hit again on the 16th, and the financial market fell into a “whining”. As of the close on the 16th, the Dow Jones Index closed down 12.93% at 20188.52 points, a new low since February 2017; the Nasdaq Index closed down 12.32% at 6904.59 points; the S&P 500 Index closed down 11.98% at 2386.13 points . The U.S. stock market suffered its largest decline in 33 years. Technology stocks, oil stocks, precious metal stocks and Chinese concept stocks led the market decline. Other equity assets were also sold off, and the market reappeared as “Black Monday”.
In the field of commodities, on the 16th Domestic and foreign commodity markets were largely green, with Brent crude oil in particular falling more than 10% at one point and breaking through $30/barrel for the first time since February 11, 2016.
The current performance of the global financial market is very similar to that of 2008, with US stocks, crude oil and gold all experiencing panic declines. Buffett said, “When others are panicked, I am greedy.”
There have been three circuit breakers in the history of the U.S. stock market, two of which occurred in the past week. Even novices with short experience in the stock market have the opportunity to witness and participate in this magnificent period. A history of panic. So, as many stocks have halved and the price of crude oil has fallen below $30, is it now time for others to be fearful and others to be greedy?
It is unrealistic to accurately predict the peak of the epidemic to achieve accurate bargain hunting!
This round of global slump was triggered by the new crown epidemic, although it is not the only reason. Therefore, when considering whether the market has reached its most panicked moment, we must first see whether the epidemic has reached its worst moment.
According to the current figures from various countries, China has temporarily brought the epidemic under control, but North America, Europe, etc. have just begun.
Assuming that according to the worst-case predictions of some experts, the virus is “unpreventable and uncontrollable” and must be ultimately controlled through herd immunity. One way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccines, and another way is for most people to be infected and then recover. According to the fastest progress, it is estimated that the vaccine will not enter the stage of large-scale application until at least the end of this year. The time it takes for most people to recover after being infected has a lot to do with the prevention and control strategies of each country. For example, the current strategy in the UK is not to completely allow the virus to spread freely. Although public activities have not been completely stopped, everyone’s panic has reduced gatherings and improved personal hygiene. So it is estimated that it will take several months to achieve herd immunity.
If the worst outcome is inevitable, it seems too early to discuss whether it is the time to panic. At dawn, the fastest should be before most people have been infected (have not yet recovered), or before the vaccine is basically certain to be used on a large scale.
This worst result may not occur, there are many variables in between.
After several generations of mutation, the severity and mortality rate of the virus has decreased, approaching that of influenza. In this case, social order will soon return to normal. Because no country adopts comprehensive testing and complete isolation to prevent and treat influenza;
The emergence of specific drugs has greatly reduced the severity and mortality rate, which is similar to that of influenza. ;
The rising temperature has greatly reduced the infectivity of the virus;
The current preventive measures in various countries have taken effect quickly, and the virus has spread rapidly in the country within a short period of time. It has basically disappeared globally;
Others…
As for whether the worst-case scenario will occur, or will some variable emerge to change the progress of the epidemic? Countless scientists in various fields such as virology and epidemiology are still debating, leaving us even less able to judge. The plummeting market does provide us with excellent buying opportunities, but the ups and downs of the stock market may not be completely consistent with the epidemic. Therefore, it is unrealistic to hope to accurately predict the peak of the epidemic to achieve accurate bottom hunting.
Suppressed by the oil price war, Saudi Aramco vowed to continue to supply oil to the market with all its strength
In the face of oil prices As the price continues to fall, Saudi Aramco has dealt another heavy blow to the market. It said that it will continue to flood the market with historically high levels of oil supply until at least the end of May. This caused Brent crude to fall below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2016.
Faced with a price war with Russia, Saudi Arabia has planned to put a record amount of oil on the market starting in April in a bid to compete for market share after the dramatic collapse of the OPEC+ alliance. Asked how much crude oil Saudi Arabia would supply in the next month, Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser told investors: “I don’t think May will be different.” He said the state-owned oil giant would It will produce at its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels per day in March and supply an additional 300,000 barrels per day from stocks. He said on an earnings call with investors that Aramco could maintain this level of production indefinitely “if needed” without any additional capital or operating expenditures for a year.
�Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Chase & Co., said, “Aramco’s production strategy is, to some extent, posturing. The Saudis want to inflict the maximum damage on high-cost producers as quickly as possible.” Painful. But there’s a question of how long it can last before all the oil storage is filled.”
Saudi Aramco, meanwhile, said on Sunday it was cutting back on capital spending plans. The company released its first earnings since its initial public offering last year. The stock has fallen 16% since OPEC+ talks collapsed in Vienna on March 6. Nasser said in September that Aramco had more than 60 million barrels of oil in storage, suggesting Aramco’s inventory reduction could last about seven months. Saudi Aramco Chief Financial Officer Khalid Al-Dabbagh said on the same conference call that he was “very comfortable with oil prices at $30 a barrel. There will be an impact from lower prices, but we will benefit from the additional oil that comes to the market.”
Polyester filament has quickly entered a downward channel due to the epidemic and the plummeting oil prices, and the promotion model may be further continued in the future
From the perspective of the polyester market, domestic public health incidents are gradually improving, while overseas public health incidents are still fermenting. In addition, the recent sharp decline in international oil prices has dragged down the commodity market atmosphere, entering the second week of March. , the polyester cost-end support collapsed, and polyester filament companies traded price for volume. However, due to the slow resumption of downstream work, little effect was achieved, and the industry quickly entered a downward channel.
The polyester filament market and textured terminal weaving companies, due to pessimistic expectations for the later period, mainly promote shipments, and in the short term The contradiction between domestic supply and demand will be limited. In the downstream, under the guidance of the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, the sentiment of selling down is high. Although the inventory of polyester filament companies has eased slightly, it is still at a high level overall. The promotion model may be continued in the future. </p
