External time2023year4month17day4Month19 During the daily cycle, international oil prices fluctuated and retreated, although China’s first quarterGDP Performed strongly, and the intensity of crude oil purchasing increased. However, based on high inflation data and the still overheating economy, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will increase crude oil prices at least in 5 months. The Fed reached a basic consensus on interest rates for the first time, and the Fed is expected to extend the time it takes to start cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are more hawkish. The market is worried that an extension of the tightening cycle will damage the economic recovery and fuel demand prospects. At the same time, despite Russia’s commitment to reduce production, due to the decline in domestic demand, crude oil exports have not decreased but increased. Iraq stated that it will resume Kurdistan oil exports this week. The supply-side support that previously defended oil prices has weakened, and U.S. crude oilWTIImpact200The daily moving average failed and began a wide retracement.
In terms of specific price data, the external date is2023year4month19 New York Mercantile ExchangeWTICrude oil futures closing price79.16USD/ barrels, down 3.36USD from last Friday/Barrel, drop4.07%;4month19The closing price of Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange83.12USD/ barrel, compared with last week Five fell3.19USD/ barrels, a drop of 3.70%. 4month17day to 4month19Three trading days,WTI average closing price80.28 USD/ barrels, down 1.56 from last weekUSD/Barrel, drop1.90%, Brent closing price84.22USD span>/ barrels, down 1.69 from last weekUSD/ Barrel, drop-1.96%. Brent, WTIThree-day average spread3.93USD/barrels, narrower than last week0.13USD/barrels.
U.S. crude oil inventories continued to fall. Crude oil inventories continued to decline before the summer consumption peak, but as of 4month14 The unexpected rise in gasoline inventory data for the current week showed that the demand for refined oil products is still disappointing. At the same time, under the background of monetary tightening, the market is worried that the distinction between the off-season and peak seasons of refined oil consumption will be diluted. This is also consistent OPECMonthly warning warns of summer demand risks. Because OPEC+’s coordinated voluntary production cuts have pushed up already declining oil prices, this may also push up potential global inflationary pressures, and China’s first quarterGDP exceeded expectations. Western central banks may further extend their tightening policies based on the consideration of further controlling inflation. The rebound of the US dollar index from the trough will further put pressure on commodities.
On the supply side, the early benefits of coordinated production cuts by the alliance of oil-producing countries were fully digested by the market. However, data this cycle proves that although Russia has promised to significantly reduce production, due to the decline in demand for domestic refinery maintenance,Oil loadings at ports in western Russia in April will rise to the highest level since 2019, exceeding 240 million barrels/day, while the Iraqi Prime Minister announced on Wednesday that oil exports from the Kurdistan Region would resume this week, further easing supply risks to As for oil prices, they will fall further.
The crude oil research team believes that in view of the temporary easing of supply risks and the continued tightening of Western economies that have once again triggered widespread concerns about recession, during the transfer and delivery period of U.S. crude oil, sentiment driven may lead to the liquidation of some long positions, judging U.S. crude oilWTIShort term may drop21Daily moving average77.19USD /barrel, if this position is lost, it may fall further to 75~76USD/Barrel line. However, based on expectations of potential demand expansion, oil prices still tend to rise in the medium to long term.