As imported cases from Iran spread to surrounding areas, as of press time, the number of countries in the Middle East with confirmed cases of COVID-19 has increased to 11. Among them, the epidemic in Iran is the most serious. As of February 28, there were 270 confirmed cases and 26 deaths. Previously, the Vice President of Iran was diagnosed with COVID-19, and Iranian cleric Hadi Khosrowshahi died of COVID-19 on the same day.
Generally speaking, the prevention and control and medical levels in the Middle East vary. In addition, some of Iran’s neighboring countries are still at war. The prevention and control of the epidemic in the Middle East is not optimistic. Analysts believe that the impact of the outbreak in the Middle East on crude oil will advance along the timeline, first affecting crude oil demand and then affecting crude oil supply. Given the high mortality rate among confirmed cases in Iran, we need to be alert to the possibility that shortcomings in prevention, control and treatment are common in Middle Eastern countries.
The epidemic in the Middle East escalated
The epidemic in the Middle East worsened on the weekend after February 21. On February 19, two cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed for the first time in Qom, an important religious center in Iran. Due to the older age of the patients and defects in their immune systems, both of them died within a few hours of the diagnosis. On February 20, people began to wear masks on the streets and subway stations of Tehran, the capital of Iran, to prevent infection.
Even so, the Iranian government held a vote for the Citizens’ Assembly election on February 21. According to official statistics, at least 11 million people voted in closed spaces with dense crowds. On that day, 13 new confirmed cases and 2 deaths were reported in Iran. Although the Ministry of Health has not reported the suspected source of the outbreak, most of the confirmed patients are residents of Qom or have a history of contact with Qom.
In the following days, confirmed cases appeared in four provinces outside Qom. The cumulative number of confirmed cases is increasing at a rate of 10, 15, 34, and 44 cases per day. As of February 26, there are a total of 139 confirmed cases and 19 deaths. What makes people gasp even more is that Iran’s Deputy Minister of Health Hariqi, reformist MP Mahmoud Sadeghi, Tehran’s local mayor Mojtaba Rahmanzadeh and the Vice President of Iran have also been confirmed to be infected.
At the same time, confirmed cases have appeared in the remaining 10 countries surrounding Iran, the “crossroads” of the Middle East, including Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and Oman. The source of the first batch of new coronavirus infections reported by many countries pointed to Iran.
Currently, 5 of Iran’s 7 land neighbors have announced the closure of their land borders with Iran. Dubai, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and many other countries have also announced the suspension of flights to and from Iran.
Cheng Kefeng is a staff member from an equipment company in Henan who is stationed in Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city, to provide technical support. In an interview with a reporter from International Finance News, he described, “Iran’s surrounding areas The country is very nervous about the epidemic in Iran. Since direct flights from Iran to China have been suspended for a long time, several of us Chinese were still considering the transit route before returning to China yesterday, but now it seems that it is difficult to get out of Iran. ”
The level of prevention, control and medical care is worrying
According to data on February 27, the mortality rate of new coronavirus pneumonia cases in Iran reached 13.67%, which is approximately 13.67% in the world. 4 times the mortality level (3.4%). Since mortality statistics are usually on the high side when the total number of confirmed cases is small, there are also different voices of doubt in Iran about the true situation of the epidemic.
Cheng Kefeng told reporters, “Iranians also have doubts about the numbers published online, believing that the real situation must be much more serious than what is officially released.”
But the most shocking thing is People are still worried about the medical situation in the Middle East. The Global Health Security Index released in October 2019 shows that among the 195 countries evaluated around the world, the highest-ranking countries in the Middle East are Turkey and Saudi Arabia, ranking 30th and 35th respectively, followed by Israel ( 54th) and the United Arab Emirates (56th), with Lebanon and Oman tied at 73rd, and Jordan and Qatar at 80th and 82nd.
It is worth noting that Iran (97th), Afghanistan (130th), Iraq (167th) and other Middle Eastern countries have not even reached the global average medical level. After years of war, Libya ranks 111th, and Syria and Yemen are in the bottom 10.
Generally speaking, the medical level in the Middle East varies, but the prevention and control and medical level of countries where the epidemic has occurred are generally poor, and the situation is not optimistic.
The supply of protective medical supplies is also in short supply. At present, many pharmacies in Tehran, the capital of Iran, have posted slogans saying “masks are sold out, alcohol is sold out, and disinfectant is sold out.” Even Cheng Kefeng, who works in a mine near the Gobi Desert in Mashhad, said, “I wanted to ask local Iranians to go to nearby counties to buy some masks, but they couldn’t buy them. When we went there last week, we could still Buy it.”
Concomitantly, the price of masks in Iran and its surrounding countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Afghanistan has soared, with some masks even selling for as much as 30 times the usual price. On February 21, the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placed Iran on its blacklist. Coupled with previous U.S. sanctions against Iran, many international companies are currently preparing to provide Iran with reagents for COVID-19 testing. boxes, all of which could not be delivered due to Iran’s inability to provide funds.
According to Xinhua News Agency and the Chinese Embassy in Iran, from February 25th to 26th local time, the Chinese Embassy in Iran urgently donated 250,000 masks to Iran on behalf of the Chinese government and local Chinese-funded enterprises. and 5,000 new coronavirus nucleic acid detection kits to help Iraq fight the epidemic. In addition, �The World Health Organization also worked around those sanctions to help Iran obtain four sets of European-made diagnostic equipment, with more on the way.
The impact on crude oil advances according to the timeline
Currently, the international market is still mainly concerned about the impact of the epidemic on crude oil demand. Since the original production reduction plan of the OPEC+ production reduction alliance will expire at the end of March 2020, outsiders believe that OPEC+ will most likely extend the production reduction period in the future. OPEC also held an emergency meeting in early February. Saudi Arabia advocated further cutting production by 600,000 barrels per day. However, due to resistance from Russia, the production reduction policy is still “hanging”.
In addition, Li Chenghao, a crude oil researcher at GF Futures, said in an interview with a reporter from the International Finance News that if the epidemic occurs in places with strong demand, such as Asia, Northwest Europe and other places, it will further drag down oil prices; if it occurs in places with strong demand, it will further drag down oil prices; The Middle East region with strong attributes will have a positive impact on oil prices.
According to data from the 2019 World Energy Statistical Yearbook, the four major oil-producing countries, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, where confirmed cases have currently occurred, together accounted for 17.8% of global oil production in 2018. Although the epidemic in other Middle East oil-producing countries is not serious except for Iran, from 2018 to 2019, Middle East oil accounted for between 40% and 50% of my country’s total oil imports, which is crucial to my country’s oil imports.
As for the epidemic in the Middle East, Li Chenghao believes that it will advance according to the timeline, first affecting crude oil consumption demand, and then affecting crude oil supply. Given that Iran may have shortcomings in the prevention, control and treatment of the epidemic, we need to be alert to the possibility that this shortcoming is common in Middle Eastern countries.
“Our considerations are mainly based on the fact that the finances of the oil-producing countries in the Middle East are highly dependent on crude oil. This means that when the epidemic is relatively controllable, activities involving crude oil production and exports will To ensure that it is not affected to the greatest extent. Therefore, in the initial fermentation stage of the epidemic, the daily consumption under the prevention and control isolation measures will be affected; and when the epidemic worsens more seriously, the supply side will be negatively affected. .”
In the future, Li Chenghao believes, “Based on the current domestic situation, there is still the possibility that the COVID-19 epidemic will continue to worsen overseas, which will first suppress demand expectations. Then it will depend on each country. Regarding the progress of epidemic prevention and control, if the virus infection can be controlled in a relatively short period of time, it will help the oil price turning point to be realized in advance.”</p
