China’s chemical fiber market pays attention to “three points depends on domestic demand and seven points depends on foreign trade.” The growth rate of foreign trade exports will slow down in 2023. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles disclosed on the 7th that due to factors such as last year’s high base, sluggish overseas demand, and reduced order quantity, In U.S. dollar terms, China’s textile and apparel exports fell by 18.5% year-on-year from January to February 2023.
At the beginning of the year, the textile market generally remained at a low level, with weak demand support. Recently, a piece of news about a mountain of containers at domestic ports has been on the hot list, and the shortage of foreign trade orders has become a reality.
In addition to the weakness of the global economy, the weakness of foreign trade orders is also due to the loss of orders.
It is certain that foreign trade demand is weak. Various relevant indices indicate that the temperature of global economic and trade is declining. The U.S. clothing inventory will be US$38.2 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 50%. High inventory must have inhibited the purchase of chemical fiber textile raw materials. , the impact of the epidemic is no longer a rigid demand for clothing category consumption, and clothing consumption has declined significantly. The accumulation of containers is actually a global phenomenon, and the entire container industry is facing an oversupply situation after the supply chain is unblocked. As a major trading country for China’s textile exports, the United States has increased export tariffs on textiles and clothing since the trade war began in 2018, which has destined that foreign trade circulation will not be so smooth.
Judging from the latest import data from the United States, two countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, have experienced considerable growth in the past five years. The United States’ imports from China increased by -0.3%, while imports from Mexico and Vietnam increased by 32% and 160% respectively. . As the world’s largest consumer market, the U.S. import trade volume in 2022 will be 3.96 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 556.1 billion U.S. dollars from 2021, setting a new record for commodity imports. According to 2022 trade data, the European Union has replaced China and become the U.S.’s largest trade partners, exports to the United States amounted to more than 900 billion US dollars. The second position was taken away by Canada with more than 800 billion. China continues to decline, and even in third place, we are no match for Mexico. Looking at the global trade pattern, Western developed countries are accelerating the return of mid-to-high-end industrial chains, and Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Laos, and India have long been eyeing my country’s textile and weaving industry.
According to statistical data, as of March 2, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.93%, an increase of 9.50% from last week. Although domestic spring and summer orders have heated up compared with last week, foreign trade orders have still not improved. With the production capacity of most weaving factories increasing, gray fabric inventories have risen again. Judging from the current survey, although a few factories have reported that domestic 618 orders (summer clothing) are arriving one after another, involving some ice silk fabrics that are relatively popular, some factories still report that there are insufficient new orders, and they are relatively pessimistic about April. The above This has led to the situation that some factories have too many orders and are too late to receive them, while others are doing inventory and other orders.
Although the country is currently facing a severe and complex foreign trade environment and the triple pressure of shrinking domestic market demand, supply and demand pressure, and expected weakening, the operating pressure of my country’s nylon spinning enterprises continues to rise, and the economic operations of the downstream weaving and terminal textile and garment industries are seriously under pressure. In March, textile mills were overstocked and weaving mills were destocking slightly. At present, the market is still waiting for larger downstream orders to land. In the future, or with the promotion of national policies, consumer demand for textiles and clothing will continue to be released, and the domestic market will also Gradually warming up.
Finally, let us summarize the foreign trade collapse that has caused a lot of noise in the past few months:
1. The overall decline in foreign trade this time is due to eating too much during the epidemic in the previous two years and spitting out part of it.
2. There is indeed a reason for the accumulation of inventory. In addition, a large number of containers are produced, and the empty containers are piled high, which makes things so scary.
3. In Europe and the United States, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have triggered a severe decline in consumption, exacerbating the decline in foreign trade.
4. China’s foreign trade is indeed being robbed of business by other countries. This is partly because of US coercion and partly because of its own rising costs.
5. However, in the core foreign trade field, exports of products with technical content have not actually declined, but are actually growing.
6. This contraction in foreign trade is just a cyclical reaction to the US dollar’s hegemony ruling the world. In about a few months, foreign trade willThe trade will adjust back to normal state.
7. To forge iron, you must be strong yourself. It can be seen that China’s industrial upgrading and RMB upgrading are indeed urgent matters.
8. If China wants to progress, it cannot continue to engage in low-end industries. Sooner or later, other countries will produce clothes and shoes for us, so that we can drive pickup trucks and tow boats to travel. This is a historical law, so there is no need to make a fuss.
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