Profit analysis of polyester industry chain: raw material PTA suffers serious losses

Introduction: It is understood that the profits of the polyester industry chain have become divided, and the intermediate links in the industry chain have suffered serious losses. …

Introduction: It is understood that the profits of the polyester industry chain have become divided, and the intermediate links in the industry chain have suffered serious losses. The main reason is that during the PTA overcapacity cycle, supply pressure has restricted the market price; however, bottle-grade PET in the downstream industry has better profits, and other The profits of products used in the textile industry are somewhat weak; with the increasing localization of raw material PX, the price difference between it and naphtha is also shrinking.

Polyester industry chain profit statistics

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

As of February 16, the Asian PX market is operating weakly, and the price difference between naphtha and PX has narrowed. Therefore, PX production profits have declined. The current theoretical profit is US$20/ton, and the profit is at a low level. As for PTA, processing fees continue to be low. The weakening price of raw material PX has led to a correction in PTA prices, so the pressure on the cost side is heavy. The current PTA processing fee is below 200 yuan/ton. The profit loss is 436 yuan/ton. The recent limited recovery of terminal orders has resulted in a lack of substantial demand boost in the market. At the same time, PTA’s own supply pressure is high, which has restricted prices. As of February 16, the theoretical processing fee of PTA companies remained at 179 yuan/ton.

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

Entering February, the overall profit level of domestic polyester companies increased compared with the previous period. The market for polyester raw material PTA is consolidating at a low level, while the ethylene glycol market is fluctuating within a narrow range. The production cost pressure of polyester companies has eased. As terminal demand gradually recovers, rigid demand provides support for the polyester market. However, as downstream shipments weakened, polyester inventory accumulated, the polyester market fluctuated and fell, and the profits of polyester companies declined. Around mid-February, the profits of polyester and staple fiber companies gradually fell below the profit and loss line, the profits of polyester chips hovered near the profit and loss line, and the profits of polyester bottle chips remained low. As of February 16, the profit of sliced ​​products was 18 yuan/ton, the profit of bottle flake products was 293 yuan/ton, the profit of polyester filament products was -7 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber products was -7 yuan/ton.

Generally speaking, in recent years, the number of large-scale integration projects of domestic polyester companies has increased, forming a full industry chain business operation from “a drop of oil” to “a piece of cloth”. While polyester companies are developing upstream and downstream, they have greatly reduced operating costs and improved the overall profitability of the company. From the perspective of profit distribution in the industry chain, considering the three links of PX-PTA-polyester, due to the impact of the new PX equipment being put into production, there is a large room for compression of PX profits; although PX prices have weakened, PTA is facing a cycle of overcapacity, and processing fees It is difficult to achieve good repairs, while profit compression in the polyester segment is relatively stable.


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Author: clsrich