The starting point of China’s reform and opening up is recognized as the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in December 1978, which is exactly 45 years old this year. In the early days of reform and opening up, there was a lack of employment opportunities in the mainland, and the southeastern coastal areas had large labor volumes and obvious wage advantages. As a result, a nationwide phenomenon of “peacocks flying southeast” emerged.
One of the keys to “stabilizing production” lies in “guaranteing workers.” Major labor-employing provinces along the southeastern coast have launched a “war for workers” across provinces in advance.
It is understood that in the last two days of the Spring Festival holiday in 2023, the media in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangsu successively reported news of local plans to recruit workers across provinces in advance. It can be seen that several major economic provinces along the southeast coast attach great importance to the employment issue after the Spring Festival in 2023, and the “war for people” broke out in advance. The post-holiday “war for people” and “employment war” in 2023 are likely to be the most intense in the 45 years of reform and opening up. Related reports: The most intense “people-grabbing war” in 45 years is about to break out!
At the same time, most polyester and downstream textile companies will resume work in the New Year this year as in previous years, that is, starting from the eighth day of the lunar month. However, there are also a few regional companies that resume work a few days later this year, such as some warp knitting companies in Haiyan, Haining. However, the resumption of production of both polyester and downstream textile companies does not seem to be as fast as expected. Many companies have reported that due to low worker availability, the progress of load increase is slower than expected. In contrast, the cotton industry chain will resume work and production faster.
So why are there problems this year with low worker availability and slow resumption of production, especially in the polyester industry chain where production capacity is concentrated in East and South China?
CCF senior analyst Ni Guomiao believes: From the perspective of the textile industry itself, the previous annual wage increases in the textile industry have not happened this year. According to CCF research, the wages of workers in most textile companies have remained the same this year, and some have even seen salary cuts, including those at polyester companies. But on the other hand, as the impact of the domestic epidemic gradually fades, the service, catering, hotel and other industries will recover faster than the traditional manufacturing industry. In comparison, employment opportunities and income may be better. This is also the reason for the textile and chemical fiber industry. One of the reasons why the industry has a low worker availability rate.
First of all, compared with previous years when the policy of celebrating the New Year in situ was advocated due to the epidemic, most labor workers chose to celebrate the New Year at their workplaces. However, this year’s optimization of epidemic prevention policies has resulted in a significant increase in the number of laborers returning home to celebrate the New Year this year. Some construction site workers even returned home early. Secondly, less than expected pre-holiday fund returns have slowed project progress or halted work, resulting in uncertainty about the post-holiday start time and no rush to get labor services back to work.
It is only a matter of time before the worker arrival rate is low. It is expected that the return of workers will gradually accelerate after the Lantern Festival on the 15th day of the first lunar month. A Bureau of China Railway said: The situation this year is quite special. Many people have not returned to their hometowns for a long time, so they will be slightly late in returning to work. At present, only 20% of them have arrived at work. It is expected that preparations for resumption of work can begin around the 12th of the first month.
Is polyester rising less than expected?
Since the start of construction later this year, the polyester market is gradually recovering. According to the plan of the year before, many polyester plants will be opened from the eighth day of the lunar month, so the load is expected to pick up quickly at the end of the month and the beginning of the month.
However, judging from the actual follow-up situation, the current recovery speed of polyester load does not seem to be too fast. It is true that many devices are heating up recently, or plan to increase the load, but most of them have not yet released products, so the polyester load at the end of the month is still hovering at a low level of 64-65%. Judging from the current pace, the progress of load improvement is somewhat lower than expected.
Why is the load rising slower than expected? CCF senior analyst Yuan Yuan said: The equipment does need a process from heating up and restarting to producing products, but it is usually evaluated in one or two days. At present, the progress of workers arriving at work is slow, which may also be a limitation. An important reason why the device is turned on.
Regarding the issue of workers, it may be easier to see clearly from the downstream links that employ larger amounts of labor.
Judging from the average level in the past week after the holiday, it can be clearly seen that the start-up situation of spinning and related weaving is significantly better than that of textured looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. Judging from the specific causes, part of the reason is that spinning companies destocked better and their enthusiasm for starting work was acceptable, but there may be a more important reason because of the composition of workers.
Relatively speaking, companies such as pure cotton yarn and pure cotton cloth are more widely distributed in the country. Among them, local workers in inland areas account for a large proportion, and their arrival may be relatively timely. However, the texturing and weaving companies related to chemical fiber filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas are A considerable proportion of employees come from other places, and their return to work after the year is slow, resulting in a significantly delayed resumption of work. The situation of pure polyester yarn is generally between the two.
Average start of work one week after the Spring Festival in 2023 (%)
Of course, as time goes by, construction will gradually resume. thingsIn fact, the flexibility space for texturing and loom start-up improvement in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is actually greater. According to historical experience, the market will generally return to a relatively high level two to three weeks after the Spring Festival holiday. However, comparing the past few years, in addition to the rapid recovery last year, the pace of resumption of work has generally shown a trend of slowing down year by year.
In recent years, pure cotton yarn and pure cotton cloth VS Jiangsu and Zhejiang textured, looms have been started every week after the Spring Festival (%)
In addition, the polyester filament industry chain will experience weak benefits or even losses in 2022, including from spinning factories to downstream links. Some factories have laid off employees and cut wages, which may also dampen employees’ enthusiasm for returning to work.