Inventory: The ethylene glycol market will fluctuate widely in 2022

Introduction: Ethylene glycol has been in a wide range of fluctuations in 2022. The downstream polyester peak season is not prosperous, and the performance of ethylene glycol is al…

Introduction: Ethylene glycol has been in a wide range of fluctuations in 2022. The downstream polyester peak season is not prosperous, and the performance of ethylene glycol is also relatively average. The price push is weak, and the market as a whole lacks substantial positive support. The low-end price fell below 4,000 yuan/ ton to a low of 3,765 yuan/ton, and companies continued to lose money. Some companies had to reduce their workloads, switch production, or stop operations to relieve pressure. The overall pessimism was relatively strong. As of the end of the year, the average market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,529 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 12.96%.

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

First quarter: The domestic ethylene glycol market has been relatively volatile, with most of the positive news coming from the support of crude oil, and the overall supply and demand performance has been relatively stalemate. The second phase of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and the new installations of Shanxi Meijin Chemical and Xinjiang Guanghui have increased market supply. Although some equipment maintenance has boosted the market, port inventory has accumulated significantly and continues to hover around 900,000-960,000 tons. The overall supply is still at a high level, suppressing market confidence; at the same time, polyester plants in many factories have been shut down for maintenance, and the total market supply has been further reduced. Although some factories have started to resume production, it will still take time for market supply to recover, and downstream polyester Demand performance is average, with domestic epidemics recurring, terminal orders still insufficient, and procurement mostly maintaining rigid demand.

Second quarter: The overall start-up of ethylene glycol remained at around 57%. The start-up has been fluctuating at a low level. As crude oil prices continue to rise, the cost of ethylene glycol production has increased. Affected by low profits, some refinery units have reduced their load or shut down for maintenance. Most of them are integrated devices. The restrictions on downstream logistics have caused port inventories to rise to a high level of more than one million tons. The polyester production load is in the traditional peak demand season of gold, three, silver and four. The domestic textile enterprises’ production does not rise but falls, coupled with the decline in overseas demand. , Textile exports are also facing greater pressure. The start-up of weaving enterprises has dropped to a low of 40-50%. Due to weak terminal demand, although polyester enterprises have cut prices and promoted promotions, the market trend has been relatively weak. Although prices have improved to a certain extent throughout the second quarter, But the overall fluctuations are limited.

Third quarter: The domestic ethylene glycol market experienced wide fluctuations. In July, international oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. The continued destocking of ports gave the market confidence, and some large factories were undergoing maintenance, and the supply was gradually reduced. However, polyester was still in the off-season stage in July, and terminal weaving operations remained at about 50%, maintaining strong demand; the market Supply and demand have been in a stalemate for a long time, restricting prices from rising. Only the low-price inquiry atmosphere is improving, and short sellers have suppressed bull confidence for a long time. In September, downstream polyester entered the golden ninth stage, and terminal construction started to pick up one after another. Downstream polyester construction started to rise, prices strengthened, and With the addition of new production capacity, demand has gradually improved, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased slightly. However, as the ethylene glycol maintenance equipment has been put into operation in the later stage, market concerns have become obvious, and the demand side has gradually softened, and rigid demand purchases have slowly returned to main needs.

Fourth quarter: Domestic ethylene glycol continues to be weak. Although ports destocked slightly in October, the reduced supply provided certain positive support for the market. However, as the “Golden Nine” market failed in the downstream, industry players still lacked confidence in the later market. In the early stage, many terminals have restocked their warehouses and the downstream market has gradually entered the off-season. The price of ethylene glycol fell to the lowest level of 3765-3775 yuan/ton in the year. The weakness continued until November. Although some equipment was overhauled or the load was reduced, the downstream market gradually entered The off-season led to poor ethylene glycol shipments, and the market rebounded at the end of the year. New equipment continued to be put into production. However, port destocking and downstream polyester production cuts were suspended, which provided certain support for the market mentality. Short sellers withdrew, and the market continued to rise and fluctuate. Due to the weak influence of polyester, prices continue to rise, and the market as a whole lacks substantial positive support.

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Author: clsrich