During this period, the hottest topic in the country was the shift in public health policy, which also promoted the growth of orders in a short period of time. Especially recently, news about groups from many regions going overseas have flooded the screen, and there are many textile people among them. Exhibitions have always been one of the most important means for textile companies to obtain orders and customers in new markets. This means is recovering rapidly with the changes in public health policies. Recently, many customers have inquired about the situation of foreign exhibitions in 2023.
But as “searches for N95 masks soared by 715%” became a hot search topic, we found that along with the opening up, there are also many worries and anxieties.
Infection peak reached within 1 month!
It may take 3-6 months to get through this epidemic as a whole
Two days ago, I talked with the boss of a factory in Hebei about the situation. Most of the employees in his factory have symptoms. The factory is currently shut down. Most people are lying at home or in their dormitories with fever. It is expected that they can resume work in one to two weeks.
He said: “Don’t worry, the supplier is also positive.”
This is the real post-epidemic era, and textile people in the north and south may have felt it to a greater or lesser extent.
The current general prediction for the epidemic situation in my country is that the infection peak will be reached within one month.
Zhong Nanshan’s team predicts that, first, the model shows that the peak number of daily infections will occur at the end of January and February next year. Based on this, the country also has many peak reduction measures. Second, it is believed that it will enter a relatively stable stage in early to early March.
When can we return to the status quo before 2019? Zhong Nanshan’s view is that it will be in the first half of next year, after March. “I can’t guarantee it, but judging from the trend, it should be around this time.”
Zhang Wenhong’s team also believes that the peak of the epidemic may arrive within a month, and it may take 3-6 months to get through the epidemic as a whole.
Feng Zijian, a senior researcher at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, shared online with Tsinghua students that according to mathematical model calculations, when the first wave of large-scale shocks reaches its peak, the infection rate among our population may reach about 60%, and then gradually increase Returning to a plateau, 80%-90% of our people may eventually experience infection.
And this wave of infections is not a one-off.
Foreign statistics show that if you have been infected with Omicron, regardless of whether you have symptoms or not, the probability of secondary infection within 3 to 6 months is very low, and the immunity formed by the human body will play a certain protective role. However, Omicron may rapidly mutate into new sub-branches and develop strong immune evasion capabilities, and recovered patients cannot completely avoid secondary infection.
Therefore, we may still be cautious about terminal consumption for quite some time. At the same time, as the peak of the epidemic in various places is approaching, the employee attendance rate may be significantly reduced, and the production of enterprises will also be affected to a certain extent. The bosses of textile and chemical fiber enterprises must Have an emergency plan for employee infection.
3-6 months period
The textile and chemical fiber market will also see greater fluctuations!
During this 3-6 month period, the caution and stocking conditions in the textile and chemical fiber market will also usher in greater fluctuations. At present, with the rebound in terminal orders under the background of optimization of epidemic prevention and control and the stimulation of some buyers’ bargain hunting operations, the polyester market has stopped falling and rebounded recently.
In addition to the impact of the transition period in the post-epidemic era, the following major factors predict that the height of the rise in raw materials will be relatively limited before the Spring Festival.
First of all, although the price of polyester yarn is rising, have you ever seen a polyester factory increase the price so cautiously? It seems that you are afraid that the price will rise too much and the textile bosses will not buy it. The price rises by 50-100 yuan/ton every day. This shows that the price of polyester yarn is rising. The ester factory itself still lacks confidence. By raising the price slightly, the change in consumption will lead to a qualitative change, which will not put too much pressure on the textile boss.
Secondly, the reason why polyester factories are cautious is due to their own production capacity. After the excessive inventory left before, now that the market has improved, they must want to release more quickly, but they must take into account both price increases and destocking. Balance is a problem in polyester factories today.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the downstream market, under the background of optimized epidemic prevention policies, some market buyers have stocked up on appropriate quantities after the end of the lockdown. Recently, the stocking of raw materials in weaving factories has increased. However, due to the large inventory base of spinning and weaving companies, and the sustainability of the improvement in orders remains to be seen, some companies still plan to gradually stop and take holidays after the second half of the year. The uncertainty of the future still hinders the purchasing sentiment of terminal companies to a certain extent.
In addition, in the short term, the narrow rebound in terminal orders will provide a certain positive boost to the market, but the inventory of finished gray fabrics is still high; overseas orders have limited improvement under the background of inflation in Europe and the United States, and domestic sales are in the off-season near the end of the year, and the market destocking process is expected to Slowly, some terminal companies will gradually stop for holidays in the second half of the year, which may be a drag on the increase and sustainability of polyester and raw materials.