According to statistics released by India’s AGM, as of December 4, 2022, India’s cumulative cotton market volume in 2022/23 is approximately 908,400 tons, a decrease of approximately 645,500 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years, a decrease of 48.32%; Among them, in the week of December 4, the weekly market volume of Indian cotton was 132,300 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from the previous week, and a decrease of about 86,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years, especially in northern cotton regions such as Punjab and Rajasthan. The decline in cotton market volume is more prominent (the northern cotton area has entered the picking period since September), while the central cotton areas such as Gujarat and Maharashtra have also fully entered the harvesting season. However, due to the higher purchase price of seed cotton than in 2021/ There was a large drop in the same period of 2022 (a drop of nearly 40%), and farmers were seriously reluctant to sell. In addition, due to relatively sufficient rainfall in some cotton areas in September/October (the southwest monsoon retreated later than in previous years), the moisture content of seed cotton was high. , both private ginners and CCI are very cautious in purchasing, so the sale of seed cotton and the listing of new cotton are also very slow.
A private cotton processing company in Gujarat stated that based on surveys, sampling, and testing, due to relatively normal weather and moderate temperatures from mid-October to November, not only the output of S-6 in Gujarat this year is expected to be higher than that in 2021/22 Big growth (Indian agricultural department statistics show that the cotton planting area in Maharashtra and Gujarat will increase by 7% and 13% respectively in 2022), and the color and quality indicators of S-6 are also higher than those of the previous two During the year, the competitiveness of both exports and domestic sales continued to rebound. However, the biggest problem at present is the slow progress of seed cotton purchase. Farmers are not interested in the quotations of processing enterprises below 10,000 rupees/quintal. They hope that the cotton purchase price will rise to 10,000-13,000 rupees/quintal in December/January/February. Otherwise, they would rather stock up. Not selling or selling less to activate funds, and ignoring the quotations and appeals of private ginners, some large cotton growers and cotton brokers have expanded their warehouses, planning to fight a protracted war with processing companies and CCI.
Since the launch of Indian cotton in 2022/23 continues to slow down significantly (the cumulative listing volume has dropped by nearly 50% compared with the three-year average), the Indian cotton output this year may not reach the CAI forecast of 34.4 million bales (170 kg per bale, approximately 5.848 million tons) ), the year-on-year growth target of 12% is even less able to reach the controversial USDA latest report of 5.987 million tons.
An Indian cotton exporter believes that institutions such as CAI and USDA may have significantly overestimated the output of cotton areas in northern India in 2022/23. For example, the Indian Cotton Association Limited (ICAL) has recently lowered its cotton production estimate in North India in the 2022-23 marketing year from 5.83 million bales to 5.1 million bales (170 kg per bale), and the year-on-year growth rate has also been lowered from 23.40% to 7.95%. ; The impact of rains and floods in September/October on cotton growth and output in central India’s cotton regions has also been artificially ignored by relevant departments. The slow progress in harvesting and delivery of seed cotton is certainly the reason for the sharp decline in new cotton sales year-on-year, but in 2022/ The total output in 2023 may only be 33-33.5 million bales, which is also an important condition for the supply pressure to remain high.