This week, the European Union launched a new round of negotiations on Russian oil price limits. The negotiation scene was very ugly for a time, but in the end, no agreement was reached…
On November 22, the European Union submitted its latest proposal, proposing a partial relaxation of sanctions against Russia. It is understood that the EU had previously planned to permanently ban EU member states from providing financial, insurance, brokerage and other services to Russian oil tankers that exported more than the target price; the new bill was revised to “for those that ‘intentionally’ transport higher than the target price” Russian crude oil and refined oil tankers will be prohibited from accessing EU shipping services within 90 days of unloading.” On the other hand, the new bill provides a 45-day transition period for the initial implementation of sanctions, that is, loading before December 5 and December 1 Oil unloaded before March 19 will not be sanctioned for the time being, providing a 90-day transition period for future price cap policy changes.
On November 23, the EU held a meeting to discuss the target ceiling price for sanctions on Russian oil exports. No consensus was reached that day, and discussions were planned to continue on the 24th.
During the negotiations the next day, foreign media reported that after some “fierce”, “ugly” and “difficult” discussions, European energy ministers failed to reach a compromise on the price ceiling and planned to discuss it again on the 25th. On the 25th, it was directly announced that the discussion was canceled and postponed to next Monday (November 28) for further discussion.
After Russia announced a special military operation in the Sparton area on February 24, 2022, it triggered multiple rounds of sanctions from the United States and Europe. On March 8, Biden announced a ban on oil imports from Russia. On June 3, the European Union announced that it would ban member states from importing seaborne crude oil from Russia starting from December 5. Import sanctions led to concerns about supply disruptions in Russia, triggering a sharp rise in crude oil prices in the first half of the year. Rising oil prices have intensified inflationary pressure in the United States and Europe. The U.S. CPI increased by as high as 9.1% year-on-year in June, and the Eurozone CPI rose by 10.7% year-on-year in October, both hitting 40-year highs. Under inflationary pressure, the Biden administration has launched a number of measures to suppress oil prices, including pushing the EU to adopt a price ceiling plan for Russian oil to replace the original plan of comprehensive sanctions, but the details of the new plan have never been able to reach a consensus.
Regarding this price limit, Zhong Meiyan, assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the West’s purpose is not only to prevent the impact of sanctions on global oil supply, causing oil prices to skyrocket, but also to limit Russia’s excess profits from exports. Judging from the beginning and end of the price limit, Europe and the United States planned to set price limits for Russian oil exports in early September. The maximum price proposed at that time was only US$44/barrel. In October, the U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly proposed setting a maximum price for Russian oil at around $60 per barrel. With the imminent implementation of the EU’s ban on imports of Russian crude oil in December, most EU countries have recently supported limiting Russian oil prices to US$65-70/barrel.
However, the EU’s current price limit plan has caused huge internal differences. Some countries think it is too low, while others think it is too high. Countries eager to rein in domestic energy costs, notably Poland, Spain and Greece, said the proposal was unrealistic and that the cap was set too high and was unlikely to be triggered. Countries with huge maritime industries such as Cyprus, Greece and Malta will suffer the most if Russian oil trade is hindered. They argue the cap is too low and are asking for compensation for lost business or more time to adjust.
It is worth mentioning that Poland insists on limiting Russian oil to US$30/barrel on the grounds that the proposal of US$65/barrel is too high and too generous for Russia. Polish Climate Minister Anna Moskwa told the media in Brussels on Thursday: “The price ceiling in the document currently does not meet the requirements of any country. This is a joke for us.”
In addition, some EU officials cited the “intensity” of dialogue within the EU. One even said: “It got really ugly at one point.”
In fact, judging from the current pricing of Ural crude oil in the market, the average monthly spot price in the past month is about 71 US dollars/barrel. If the EU agrees to set the price limit range at 65-70 US dollars/barrel, the crude oil exports to Russia will The impact is minimal.
“Actually, the differences within the EU lie in whether to impose strict or lenient price limits on Russian crude oil exports. Each member state has a different position and the choice will be different. This depends on the energy attributes and interest demands of each country. It will still take some time to reach an agreement. .” Zhong Meiyan said.
Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst at CITIC Futures, also said that the deadlock at this week’s meeting showed that EU member states have differentiated in their choices between political statements and economic interests. The higher the target price ceiling, the more likely it is to maintain Russian exports and prevent supply shortages and the risk of upward oil prices. After the EU reaches a final decision, it is also necessary to pay attention to Russia’s response measures. Russia’s latest statement is that it will not export oil to countries participating in the program and may divert exports or reduce production. If exports are simply transferred, it will have little impact on supply, and geo-premiums may fall; if active production cuts are announced, risk premiums may rise again.
It is understood that Russia is also taking corresponding countermeasures against the EU’s possible price-limiting measures, including plans to issue a presidential decree banning exports to Russia.Oil price caps participating countries sell oil.
“This is the time when the game is getting more intense. If the EU’s price limits are more nominal than real, Russia’s countermeasures will most likely be a mere formality.” Zhong Meiyan told reporters that currently India, Turkey and other large oil-buying countries have not yet formally joined the restrictions. price mechanism. Therefore, given that the latest proposed price ceiling is much higher than the current market price, and the United States stated at the G20 summit that these countries can still buy Russian oil at this stage, the development of the situation requires further observation.
“In general, the EU’s price limit on oil exports to Russia may be stranded, or the price limit may be set higher than the actual transaction price in the market, which also means that the sanctions are in name only. The impact of the sanctions on crude oil prices will not be as expected, which will also As a result, the positive support for oil prices has weakened,” Zhong Meiyan said.
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