The supply and demand structure is weak, and PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

Introduction: The domestic PTA market fluctuated widely last week, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor. As the weekend approached last Friday, PTA prices rose all the way i…

Introduction: The domestic PTA market fluctuated widely last week, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor. As the weekend approached last Friday, PTA prices rose all the way in the early trading that day due to the news of major suppliers purchasing spot goods. However, PTA’s own supply and demand structure was weak, so the upward momentum was insufficient; entering this week, the cost-side correction restricted the PTA market. , and the expected increase in supply has restricted the market, and the decline continued after yesterday’s opening. As of November 22, PTA’s closing price was 5,140 yuan, down 114 yuan, or 2.17%, from the previous settlement price.

Since November, the domestic PX operating rate has gradually recovered and the tension has eased. In addition, three new PX devices are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, and the supply of PX will gradually become looser in the future. At present, Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s new 2.8 million-ton unit is about to be put into operation; Fuhai Group’s 1-million-ton PX unit is expected to produce products in mid-to-late November; the Guangdong refining and chemical integration project has also entered the production preparation stage. Overall, in the fourth quarter, with the gradual release of new device production capacity, the PX supply side increased significantly, market sentiment weakened, and the cost side provided loose support for the PTA market.

As far as PTA is concerned, new PTA equipment is about to be released in the near future, supply pressure is highlighted, and future demand expectations are generally pessimistic. However, the PTA basis performance did not continue to weaken as expected. The recent PTA basis has remained around 01+400. The main reason for maintaining a high basis is that there is less spot circulating in the market, and the spot basis quotations of the main PTA suppliers remain strong. Major PTA plants have maintenance plans in the future. Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000-ton unit is scheduled to be temporarily shut down for five days at the end of November. Zhuhai Ineos’s 1.1-million-ton unit and Yisheng Hua’s 2.25-million-ton unit are also scheduled to be shut down for maintenance. Hengli PTA2#’s 2.2 million-ton unit is also scheduled to be shut down for maintenance. The device and the 2 million ton device of Yisheng Petrochemical are still in parking state. From this point of view, PTA operating rates will decline, which will provide certain support for PTA basis. The tight supply will cause PTA to show a phased pattern of near strength and far weakness.

From the demand side, the overall operating rate of the polyester industry has declined recently. As of November 21, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 79.11%. Currently, polyester inventories continue to accumulate, and profits of various polyester varieties are beginning to shrink. Polyester filament production losses intensified, polyester chips and polyester staple profits declined, and polyester bottle chips rebounded due to market prices, so corporate profits rebounded slightly. As of now, the profit of sliced ​​products is 197 yuan/ton, the profit of bottle flake products is 297 yuan/ton, the profit of polyester filament products is -478 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple products is 222 yuan/ton. Under the dual pressure of high inventory and low profits, several leading polyester companies have planned to jointly reduce production. There is a possibility that polyester load will continue to decline in the future.

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

Taken together, due to tight supply and tight spot circulation, the short-term PTA basis may remain strong. The supply and demand structure in the market outlook will be weak, suppressing market prices, and the PTA market may remain volatile and weak.

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Author: clsrich