Demand concerns intensify, polyester chain continues to fall

The polyester chain continued to fall after the holiday, and ethylene glycol experienced a large cumulative decline. Today, PTA and short fiber continued to turn green, with PTA fa…

The polyester chain continued to fall after the holiday, and ethylene glycol experienced a large cumulative decline. Today, PTA and short fiber continued to turn green, with PTA falling 1.51% to close at 5,366 yuan, and short fiber falling by more than 1.24. Concerns about negative demand feedback have intensified after the holidays, as the resumption of work is less than expected and there is news of polyester factory production cuts, which will hardly give a significant boost to prices.

Although OPEC has repeatedly emphasized that there is no political factor in this production reduction, most of the gains in oil prices brought by the production reduction have been withdrawn. There has also been a lack of bullish information on the supply and demand levels of the crude oil market recently, which has continued to cool down bullish sentiment in the market.

Under the weak macro trend, crude oil and costs have weakened, combined with the reduction of PTA’s own supply and the slight decline in polyester demand. TA social inventories increased month-on-month last week; at the same time, PTA basis weakened significantly, and processing fees were quickly compressed.

The overall performance of the polyester end after the holiday was not good, and downstream companies were very cautious in pursuing higher prices. After the increase, the supply of goods was scarce, and the production and sales ratios of filament and short fiber companies were difficult to maintain. In particular, the polyester filament industry still has accumulated inventory, and the post-holiday load There is still a decrease, which inhibits the formation of PTA and ethylene glycol to a certain extent. Although post-holiday staple fiber output has increased due to the recovery of processing fees, filament factories have experienced production reductions.

From the terminal data point of view, although there is a certain expectation of consumption increase due to the stimulation of Double Eleven and severe cold weather, due to the large terminal inventory base, the destocking process of downstream yarn and cloth factories is very slow, and their own orders are limited, and inventory and financial pressures continue. Against the larger background, raw material stocking remains low, and terminal transmission is still poor, which creates a certain restraint on upstream raw materials.

The supply and demand situation of EG is not optimistic. After the holiday, the main port shipment data has dropped significantly, and the inventory reduction trend has ended. The inventory reduction trend has begun to accumulate. The domestic operating rate has shown an upward trend with the restart of some devices; in addition, the output of new devices in Shaanxi It also highlighted the pressure on the supply side, and the demand situation remained tepid. Therefore, after the futures briefly consolidated at a high level, there was a trend of sharp retracement from the high level.

In terms of inventory, due to the recent concentrated arrival of domestic trade imports at the port, the overall port inventory maintains an increasing trend. As of October 10, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of ​​East China was 856,400 tons, an increase of 0.43 thousand tons or 0.50% from the previous statistical period. The demand side of polyester has been weak, and downstream sentiment has been cautious after the holiday. Shipments have weakened, and inventories in main ports have accumulated slightly.

Meierya Futures Zhao Ting believes that with the recovery of polyester profits, the burden reduction and production reduction may be eased, the superimposed PX is still tight, the expectation of weakening supply and demand is moderately alleviated, and the PTA or the lower edge of the range will gradually stabilize.

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Author: clsrich