According to statistics, as of October 12, 2022, there were 7,419 Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts, which was higher than 3,718 in the same period of 2021/22, with a year-on-year increase of 100.46%. According to the regulations of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange, the compulsory cancellation time for cotton warehouse receipts in 2021/22 is the 15th trading day of November 2022. In addition to delivery of such a large number of warehouse receipts, how to digest them in October and November is an issue worthy of attention, otherwise they will be forcibly cancelled.
Why are cotton textile mills and middlemen currently unwilling to take over the Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts for 2021/22? The author’s analysis mainly has the following reasons: First, as of October 12, the total number of warehouse receipts in Xinjiang’s delivery warehouses was 965, accounting for 13% of the total number of warehouse receipts. Recently, affected by the upgrade of epidemic prevention and control, the number of warehouse receipts received Or it may be difficult to ship in time.
Second, due to the short-term reduction in cotton shipments in Xinjiang and the slowdown in the launch of new cotton in 2022/23, Xinjiang cotton spot prices in mainland warehouses have not only continued to rise, but also inquiry transactions have accelerated significantly, and warehouse receipt basis differences have generally increased, restricting outflows.
Third, since the 2021/22 cotton came on the market, the comprehensive cost of lint cotton and the main contract price of Zheng Cotton have been in an “inverted” state, giving cotton processing companies no hedging opportunities. Therefore, warehouse receipts are mainly resources with high premiums (generally around 1,000). -2,000 yuan/ton), and in the second quarter of 2022, orders for domestic high-count carded yarn and combed yarn continued to be light, resulting in a poor match between warehouse receipts and the actual cotton demand of cotton spinning mills.
Fourth, the new cotton harvest period in 2022/23 is about a week earlier than the previous year. In addition, the opening price of machine-picked cotton in mid-September was only 5.1-5.3 yuan/kg, resulting in the cost of lint being significantly lower than the quoted price of old cotton in 2021/22. Therefore, most cotton-consuming enterprises adopt the strategy of holding currency to wait for selling and delaying replenishment.
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