Crude oil plummets, polyester chain decline continues

Concerns about economic recession intensified. Stocks and bonds in European and American markets both crashed last Friday. The U.S. dollar soared to a new high, crude oil plummeted…

Concerns about economic recession intensified. Stocks and bonds in European and American markets both crashed last Friday. The U.S. dollar soared to a new high, crude oil plummeted, and domestic commodities followed suit in night trading. After digestion over the weekend, the decline in the polyester chain continued on the 26th. PTA closed at 5,302 yuan, down 5.46%. Staple fiber and ethylene glycol both fell by more than 4%.

Starting from the second quarter of this year, overseas gasoline supply has been insufficient, inventories have continued to be depleted, demand for aromatic hydrocarbon oil blending has increased significantly, and the supply of PTA raw material PX has been tight, and the situation has not been substantially alleviated yet. However, the profits of domestic PTA factories are low, coupled with the lack of raw materials in factories, the number of equipment maintenance increased further in August. However, there are still many PX and PTA devices undergoing maintenance and production reduction in September, and the market may continue to trade PTA spot stocks based on the logic of destocking. At present, Fuhaichuang’s 4.5 million-ton load has increased to 80%, Yisheng Ningbo Line 4 has resumed normal operation, Yisheng’s new material load has increased to 90%, and Zhongtai’s 1.2 million-ton unit is expected to be shut down for 40 days starting from September 21.

The supply of the September contract is halved, and there are supplier shipment restrictions. Since mid-month, some suppliers have continued to buy, and PTA spot circulation has intensified. Due to insufficient expectations for the peak season, negative industry sentiment on new production capacity, the main contracts are running at low valuations. As a result, the current basis has soared to around 1,000 yuan. In addition, thanks to the greater maintenance of PTA than PX, polyester just needs to support the continued destocking of PTA. PTA processing fees continued to be repaired in September, reaching a four-year high. ​​

On the demand side, there have been considerable changes in the polyester market since the beginning of this month. Although the price fluctuations are not large, the signs are that the frequency of pulse-type production and sales has accelerated, the shipment of raw materials and gray fabrics has improved, the order volume has increased, and the start-up of looms has also shown a significant rebound. This has also made the market not optimistic about the “Jinjiu” “There are certain expectations. So far, the texturing and loom operating loads in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have returned to around the average levels of previous years. However, the overall demand performance is improved month-on-month but weak year-on-year. Different varieties in various regions are rotated to sell goods. The overall inventory is high, making it difficult to significantly sell off or the time to sell off is prolonged. Especially the recent reports of large filaments

Factories further planned to cut production, dampening market sentiment. ​​

In terms of short fiber, under the pressure of losses, many short fiber factories have successively reduced production since the beginning of September, and the overall supply has remained low; at the same time, the downstream operating rate gradually increased after the end of power restrictions in August, and the market showed a destocking trend in September; but since October , although some production capacity still has plans to further reduce production due to low prices, there is a restart plan for the early production reduction device in Sanfangxiang, and a new set of 300,000 tons/year new production capacity for new materials will be put into production in mid-October. Longzhong Information predicts that comprehensive output is expected to increase slightly compared with September, and demand growth is limited. Therefore, there is a slight accumulation of inventory in the market in October.

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Author: clsrich