Introduction: U.S. cotton futures have weakened recently, and the Fed’s sharp interest rate hike has triggered concerns about a global economic recession. Domestic cotton futures have declined, cotton spot prices have been under pressure, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market has increased. The overall situation is stable with a decline.
1. Cotton: Futures drive the spot price lower. It is difficult for real estate cotton to rise. Xinjiang’s machine-picked cotton has not yet been weighed.
Unconsciously, the time has arrived in mid-to-late September. Recently, cotton futures have been affected by the weakening of US cotton futures and limited domestic demand support. The trend during the week has been weak. Affected by this, the consumption progress of spot goods is still slow. However, due to the epidemic, Xinjiang’s machine-picked cotton has not yet been put on the market in large quantities. The market has heard that the purchase price of sporadic seed cotton in northern Xinjiang is low, which has no clear leading role for the market. In terms of real estate cotton, the recent purchase price of seed cotton has increased due to farmers’ reluctance to sell. , the current price is around 4.15-4.3 yuan/jin. Based on quality and price, the cost pressure of ginners is rising. However, due to the weak trend of cotton futures during the week, it is not easy to get higher prices for new flower lint cotton. Most yarn mills still mainly purchase 2021/22 Annual Xinjiang cotton resources, but affected by the epidemic, Xinjiang cotton transportation cycle is long, and the difficulty of finding trucks is still affecting the raw material supply of spinning mills. Some spinning mills purchase real estate lint cotton in small quantities to supplement. The transaction price of new flower lint cotton is acceptable at around 16,000 yuan/ton, and lint cotton is acceptable. Demand is gradually ending.
2. Pure cotton yarn: stable with a decrease. The looseness of carded ring spinning is smaller, while the combed compact spinning has a larger decrease.
Data source: Longzhong Information
In mid-to-late September, the pure cotton yarn market lacked favorable support, and the overall market was stable and weak. Yarn companies mainly ship goods, and firm deals are negotiated flexibly. Among them, the prices of carded ring-spun 32S and 40S cotton yarns are stable and declining, with a loosening range of around 200-300 yuan/ton. After the price adjustment, some companies reported that new orders are still limited and inventories are slowly increasing; combed ring-spun yarns, The price of medium and high-count combed compact yarn has fluctuated greatly. Some companies have lowered the price to around 500 yuan/ton. The real offer is relatively flexible. Under the pressure of low prices, some companies with poor shipments have been forced to lower the price. However, after the price concession, , some companies reported that shipments were acceptable and inventories dropped significantly.
3. Demand side: Weaving, printing and dyeing lack order support, and the operating rate is stable but declining.
Data source: Longzhong Information
Recently, orders from cotton textile manufacturing companies have been limited, and market transactions are biased towards rigid demand. Some textile mills still have inventory pressure, and it is difficult to further improve the operating rate. As of September 22, the national cotton textile manufacturing operating rate was 51.30%, which was the same as the previous month. In terms of printing and dyeing, although some factories have reported signs of improvement in domestic and foreign trade in winter warm clothing since September, the good times did not last long, the order volume was limited, and the sales stalled again in the middle to late period. The overall demand in the textile and clothing market is bleak, failing to reflect the grand occasion of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. New orders from dyeing plants are sporadic and the order quantity is small. It is difficult to continue to increase the start-up. Recently, the comprehensive start-up rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 62.25%, which is 62.25% compared with last week. -1.02%.
4. Pre-holiday market forecast: wait and see, wait for guidance
In the week before the National Day, the market may continue to wait and see. The main reason is that Xinjiang’s machine-picked cotton is still affected by the epidemic, and it is difficult to focus on the market in the short term. If there is no new news guidance, the futures market may continue the current narrow and weak consolidation posture. The spot price The market fluctuations are limited, and the cost of pure cotton yarn is unlikely to fluctuate significantly. Enterprises may continue to move steadily and sort out shipments. On the downstream side, recent orders are limited, inventory pressure still exists, and support for the rigid needs of spinning mills is limited. On the external side, although the RMB Depreciation is still good for exports, but the Federal Reserve has successively raised interest rates sharply, the overseas economic situation is weak, and European and American countries are still boycotting Xinjiang cotton products, and export resistance still exists.