The short atmosphere is strong and the polyester chain enters adjustment

There was a strong bearish atmosphere in the financial market overnight, but international oil prices adjusted slightly. On the 14th, the polyester chain failed to continue its ris…

There was a strong bearish atmosphere in the financial market overnight, but international oil prices adjusted slightly. On the 14th, the polyester chain failed to continue its rise. PTA closed at 5,718 yuan, down 1%. Ethylene glycol and short fiber fluctuations are limited.

The overall supply and demand of PX, the direct upstream raw material of PTA, is tight and the price is firm, providing support for the cost of PTA. On the supply side, in September, PTA equipment continued to undergo maintenance and shutdowns to reduce loads, and the daily supply and demand destocking was relatively strong. Specifically, Yisheng Chemical’s 3.75 million tons capacity has been increased from 60% to 80-90% load, Yisheng New Materials’ 7.2 million tons capacity has been increased from 60-70% to 80% capacity, Yadong’s 750,000-ton load capacity has been fully increased, and Sichuan Energy Investment’s 100 The load of 10,000 tons has restarted and resumed and the current load is above 90%. Yizheng 640,000 tons will be inspected for 20 days starting from September 7.

In the early stage, mainstream PTA suppliers stopped operations due to shortage of raw materials and reduced their load. The basis spread strengthened significantly and was at a historically high level. The spot processing difference exceeds a thousand yuan, but considering the market’s strong expectations for the recovery of forward PX and PTA supply, it is difficult for the price difference between near and far months to reverse in the short term.

On the demand side, the downstream polyester production has been steadily increasing recently. The end of power restrictions in East China and the appropriate terminal demand replenishment have driven the recent polyester production to increase and the product destocking cycle. The inventory of major factories in East China has dropped from the previous high of 40 days to the current 25 In about days, the industry’s operating load has improved significantly month-on-month. However, the current stocking days for raw materials in the weaving process are concentrated in 10-20 days. The inventory pressure of gray fabrics is still high in some areas.

The supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself continues to improve. In the past month, inventory has been continuously reduced, and the market has rebounded. Affected by the typhoon before the holiday, some shipping schedules were delayed, resulting in a sharp decline in ethylene glycol port inventory, which provided strong support to EG. After entering the traditional peak season of Gold, Nine and Silver, polyester operating rates rebounded, and factory delivery volumes continued to increase. The contradiction between supply and demand has eased, Coupled with the relatively low valuation, the bullish sentiment on EG has increased. With the early short-term replenishment willingness significantly enhanced, the market went higher. Yide Futures believes that EG supply and demand have improved month-on-month, and quantitative changes have caused qualitative changes (inventory has been removed for a period of time). It will rebound in the short term, but the elasticity of supply will decrease at this position. Unless demand continues to improve, we will still treat it as rebound in the near future.

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Author: clsrich