According to the global production demand forecast for September 9 released by the United States Department of Agriculture, 2022/23 Annual U.S. cotton beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks all increased. Among them, the opening inventory was increased by 25 million bales, and the output increased by 13010,000 bales to 13801380138010,000 bales, the output of most major cotton-producing areas has been increased, and the US cotton export volume has been increased6010000 bales, the reason is The proportion of U.S. cotton available for export increased, and the U.S. ending inventory increased by 900,000 bales to 2700,000 bales. The average farm price of upland cotton was 96 cents, down 1 cents from the previous month. In 2022/23, global cotton production and ending stocks increased month-on-month, while consumption decreased month-on-month. . Global cotton production increased by 140 million bales, with increases in the United States, Australia, China and Turkey offsetting decreases in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Togo. Global consumption decreased by 46 million packages month-on-month, with the main decrease coming from Pakistan and Vietnam. Global cotton exports were unchanged, with increases in exports from the United States, Australia and Mexico offsetting decreases in Brazil and Uzbekistan. In terms of imports, Pakistan’s imports increased by 200,000 bales, offsetting the decreases in imports from Turkey and Vietnam. Global cotton ending stocks increased by 200 million bales to 8,480 million bales.
The international oil price rebounded by more than 5 US dollars during the holidays. The rally in chemical products heated up after the holiday. Polyester chain was the top gainer. PTA closed at 5,768 yuan, down 3.55%. Ethylene glycol and staple fiber rose by 3.02% and 2.67% respectively.
The development of the Russia-Ukraine war during the holidays further complicated the situation, and the core factors of oil price fluctuations were almost all due to a series of subsequent impacts such as sanctions on Russian energy and the European energy crisis brought about by this geopolitical event. In addition, the slowdown in the optimistic process of Iran’s nuclear negotiations and the previous stance of OPEC on production cuts helped oil prices recover rapidly after hitting a new low.
The overall supply and demand of PX, the direct upstream raw material of PTA, is tight and the price is firm, providing support for the cost of PTA. On the supply side, in September, PTA equipment continued to undergo maintenance and shutdowns to reduce loads, and the daily supply and demand destocking was relatively strong. Specifically, Yisheng Chemical’s 3.75 million tons capacity has been increased from 60% to 80-90% load, Yisheng New Materials’ 7.2 million tons capacity has been increased from 60-70% to 80% capacity, Yadong’s 750,000-ton load capacity has been fully increased, and Sichuan Energy Investment’s 100 The load of 10,000 tons has restarted and resumed and the current load is above 90%. Yizheng 640,000 tons will be inspected for 20 days starting from September 7.
In the early stage, mainstream PTA suppliers stopped operations due to shortage of raw materials and reduced their load. The basis spread strengthened significantly and was at a historically high level. The spot processing difference exceeds a thousand yuan, but considering the market’s strong expectations for the recovery of forward PX and PTA supply, it is difficult for the price difference between near and far months to reverse in the short term.
On the demand side, the downstream polyester production has been steadily increasing recently. The end of power restrictions in East China and the appropriate terminal demand replenishment have driven the recent polyester production to increase and the product destocking cycle. The inventory of major factories in East China has dropped from the previous high of 40 days to the current 25 In about days, the industry’s operating load has improved significantly month-on-month. However, the current stocking days for raw materials in the weaving process are concentrated in 10-20 days. The inventory pressure of gray fabrics is still high in some areas.
The supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself continues to improve, and inventory has been continuously reduced in the past month. The market performance this week is strong. Affected by the typhoon, some shipping schedules were delayed, resulting in a sharp decline in ethylene glycol port inventory, which provided strong support for ethylene glycol; after entering the traditional peak season of the Golden Nine and Silver Ten, the polyester operating rate rebounded to around 84%, making 25% of the factory’s delivery volume Continuous increase. The alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, coupled with relatively low valuations, has increased the bullish sentiment on ethylene glycol. With the early short-term replenishment willingness significantly enhanced, the market fluctuated and rose.
In terms of short fiber, production restrictions in Jiangyin continue. Although longitude and longitude short fiber has restarted, some Yizheng chemical fiber production lines have reduced production, and the overall output is still low. As losses in staple fiber production continue to deepen, companies continue to reduce costs and raise prices, and production profits are expected to recover.
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