Is it inventory transfer or order recovery? Is the market turning around soon?

The traditional peak season of “Golden Nine” has arrived, but although it has entered September, it seems that the peak season is still not in sight, but there is no ne…

The traditional peak season of “Golden Nine” has arrived, but although it has entered September, it seems that the peak season is still not in sight, but there is no need to be too anxious. Judging from the current market situation, September may be the market from weak to There is a strong transition time, and now the influence of various external factors is weakening, and the market turnaround is coming.

Relevant production and sales data show that the production and sales of polyester yarn have strengthened significantly recently. Last Tuesday, the production-to-sales ratio was as high as 300%. In recent weeks, the polyester production-to-sales ratio has also been at a high level of 80-100%. Since the beginning of September, polyester filament production and sales have continued to recover, and the polyester filament operating rate and downstream loom operating rate have increased. In the editor’s opinion, the important initial characteristics of the bottom rebound of the industry have been established. What will be the next production and sales status?

If the order is placed on time

The next wave of weaving purchasing peaks will come soon!

The production and sales of polyester yarn have been sluggish since the second half of the year. At the same time, it is understood that the main reason why this phenomenon occurs in the market is that the load of the entire industry chain has increased. The arrival of the traditional peak season and the large promotion at the end of the month have also made the downstream ready to move. In addition, in the early stage With the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the raw material stocks of textured weaving manufacturers, which have been on hold recently, are almost exhausted, so it is inevitable to buy at the bottom. At the same time, there is some urgent stocking demand at the end of the month, which jointly drives the production and sales of polyester yarns.

Concentrated replenishment has driven the polyester factory’s finished product inventory to fall rapidly, and both financial and cash flow pressures have been eased, giving polyester factories a chance to breathe. However, in recent days, as the terminal stocking stage has temporarily come to an end, procurement has once again returned to low demand. The market needs time to digest the recent raw material inventory, which must take into account the feedback from downstream terminal demand.

If the order is placed in time, judging from the average raw material inventory of more than half a month, the next wave of purchasing peak is expected to arrive soon, but has the actual terminal demand really improved?

Judging from the start-up of the downstream textile market, the temperature has dropped recently, and various regions have actively allocated power supply. The situation of power shortage has been alleviated, and the overall start-up rate of polyester, weaving, clothing, etc. has rebounded. Therefore, now that the start-up rate has increased, the weaving Enterprises’ demand for raw materials will further expand. Even if they are still required to purchase, the purchase volume will be much larger than before. Therefore, with the increase in the start-up of weaving factories, polyester production and sales data will continue to have the possibility of rising. .

At the same time, from the perspective of downstream orders, there were power restrictions in East China, South China, Central China and Sichuan in mid-to-late August, and some orders were delayed in delivery. As the power restriction measures were lifted, textile and clothing companies rushed to rush orders. In addition, textile and clothing companies generally have high expectations for the “Double Festival” orders in Europe and the United States in 2022. In addition, the domestic demand market is ushering in the peak production and sales season, and some weaving mills and middlemen have plans to replenish yarn stocks.

Is it inventory transfer or order recovery?

Textile enterprises replenish their warehouses with “more than enough intentions but insufficient strength”

Judging from the current situation, stocking for the same period in previous years has already begun, but this year’s stocking is not satisfactory. Judging from the surveys of some enterprises, the willingness of enterprises to replenish large quantities of inventory in September is still relatively low. It is expected that the rhythm of “buy as you use, purchase according to order” will still be adopted. The centralized procurement of textile enterprises may be postponed until after mid-October. First, from a risk perspective, most of the orders are in small batches with insufficient sustainability, so the situation of purchasing based on sales is relatively safe; third, for some textile companies, working capital is relatively tight, and they have more than enough to replenish their inventories. “.

In the opinion of the editor, the main reason is that the demand for orders has declined, terminals are afraid to stock up on a large scale, and the international economic situation is not optimistic, which has seriously affected the export volume of some products. Under such a background, if the stocking period cannot be Showing enough strength to enter the shipping period, the ‘Golden Nine and Silver Ten’ will be difficult to show the demand intensity of the same period in previous years.

Although production and sales have increased recently, terminal orders have not improved significantly. Gray fabric inventories are still at historically high levels. On the one hand, the decline in polyester factory inventories is just a transfer of finished product inventories. On the other hand, it may be affected by more raw material traders. Speculative purchasing operations have not been substantially digested by the terminal. The macro-trade situation has indeed weakened the foreign trade demand of terminal industries in the short term. At the same time, considering the current status of overseas retailers, it is unlikely that orders will pick up significantly. Then, terminal demand will eventually be gradually fed back to the upstream market.

All in all, the market holds a neutral to optimistic view on demand in this year’s peak season. It has improved month-on-month, but the extent may be limited. What the textile market is waiting for in September may be a phased rebound, not a reversal!

This article is from the Internet, does not represent 【】 position, reproduced please specify the source.

Author: clsrich