Affected by the cost side, polyester chains collectively turned green on August 31, with PTA once leading the decline, reporting at 5,562 yuan. Ethylene glycol fell 1.43%.
Geographical factors have brought pulse-like fluctuations in oil prices, confirming the complexity and uncertainty of the factors affecting the current market. News about the Iran nuclear deal is flying all over the place, and negotiations still need to be held in September. The outcome is currently uncertain. The resolution of the OPEC meeting on September 5 may have some guidance for the market. Judging from the current positions of relevant parties such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, they are still interested in further continuing cooperation. Supply-side production control affects oil prices. Domestic crude oil prices collectively fell by more than 2%.
Although the PTA maintenance equipment has been restarted and the market supply has been supercharged with power restrictions and production cuts, some factories have continued to buy to support the spot, and PX supply is still tight and some factories have continued to buy, which may offset the market’s bearish expectations. The market price plummeting channel did not open, but continued to rebound last week. This week’s correction gave back gains.
In addition, there is news that the maintenance of some PTA equipment may be postponed, and the market continues to destock against the background of tight supply. It is reported that Hengli Petrochemical’s 3# 2.2 million ton unit, which was shut down for maintenance on August 1, may be postponed to September to restart. Yisheng Lian 1’s 2.25 million ton unit is currently 60% operational and plans to be overhauled in September. Yisheng Ningbo 3# 2 million The ton unit was shut down on July 23 and may not restart in September. In addition, the 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Chemical and the 650,000 tons of Yizheng Chemical Fiber units are scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in September, while the Honggang Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical’s total 2.15 million tons units will continue to be shut down. The supply side has been compressed again, and daily supply and demand have shifted to destocking. All mainstream suppliers are buying and selling, and downstream needs are mainly replenished.
With the alleviation of power shortages in East China, the operating load of the weaving and polyester industries has recovered to a certain extent recently. The current operating load of the polyester industry has been raised to a level above 82%. In September, there are currently 3 sets of polyester, totaling 1.15 million tons. With the release of new production capacity and the restart of superimposed maintenance equipment, demand is expected to improve month-on-month. However, compared with the same period in previous years during the Golden Nine peak season, the quality is still insufficient. The market is mostly waiting for the performance of Double Eleven orders in the later period.
Recently, the domestic ethylene glycol term market has fluctuated at a low level, and the price trend has been slightly stagnant. The price has fluctuated around 4,000 yuan/ton. In late August, the coal chemical industry started centralized shutdown for maintenance. Today, Shaanxi Weihe Chemical Co., Ltd. began to shutdown for maintenance. In early September, with the successive restarts of Sanning’s 600,000-ton and Hongsifang’s 300,000-ton units, the industry is expected to bottom out and recover; while the integrated In terms of chemical industry, Hengli 180 has successfully restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical Line 2 has recently restarted. Although the start-up of coal chemical industry is at a low level, due to the rapid improvement of integration, the overall monthly output of the industry is still based on incremental expectations.
Affected by the maintenance of overseas equipment and shipping schedules, the expected arrival at the terminal in late August has been significantly reduced, and the arrival in early September is expected to remain low. However, with the replenishment of horse oil supply and the return of large domestic refining and chemical plants from mid-September, The degree of destocking at ports is also expected to weaken. Since there is no substantial improvement in its own supply and demand side, and the accumulation of stocks after October is expected to be large, the rebound driver of ethylene glycol is weak.