For some time, due to the volatile operation of crude oil prices, the PX market has alternated between ups and downs, and price fluctuations have been adjusted. As of August 18, the PX CFR CIF price was at US$1,076/ton, an increase of 1.89% from the previous working day, and an increase from the same period last week. down 1.67%.
Recently, the cost and price of raw materials have fallen, the decline of PX has been limited, and the PX processing gap has been repaired. Under this circumstance, the operating rate of PX factories has increased slightly compared with last week, but the tight supply situation in the PX market still persists, superimposed on the recent start of the PTA market. It has rebounded, and there are still PTA devices to be restarted in the short term. The demand side is showing a positive trend. Although the cost side is not well supported, the PX market has picked up recently with both supply and demand being positive.
Looking at the market outlook for PX:
1. The cost side is still weak, dragging down the PX market
Summer heatwaves in Europe and tight natural gas supplies have prompted more oil to be used for power generation. The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth. The continued weakness of the U.S. dollar is also good for crude oil. However, the market expects supply disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to be short-term, and the market is optimistic about Concerns about economic recession and declining demand still exist. Recently, international crude oil has risen first and then fallen. Worries about the global economic recession have once again heated up. Investors are still concerned about the slowdown in oil demand. At the same time, the market is waiting for the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations. It is expected that crude oil will still remain stable. Downside.
2. The positive impact on supply and demand continues, driving the PX market upward.
Recently, the supply of PX has been tight, and the factory operating rate has been low. However, with the discharge of the PX device of a factory in Shanghai and the restart of a PX device in Ningbo, the market supply has eased slightly, but the spot circulation is still tight. In addition, the large-scale device of the PTA factory has restarted, and there is still PTA The device restart plan is yet to be fulfilled, and downstream demand is expected to increase. In the short term, the supply and demand side is showing a positive trend.
Taken together, crude oil has no upward trend in the short term and has no support for the downstream PX market. However, the performance of the supply and demand side is relatively strong, which has a certain positive impact on the PX market. The tight spot situation still exists and has not been effectively resolved in the short term. It is expected that short-term PX The market fluctuated upward, with prices fluctuating between 1,050 and 1,120 US dollars/ton.
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