The short-term PTA market remains dominated by rigid demand and replenishment

Introduction: PTA’s own supply and demand has not been the dominant factor in price operation. However, as PTA’s operating rate remains low, reduced supply will support…

Introduction: PTA’s own supply and demand has not been the dominant factor in price operation. However, as PTA’s operating rate remains low, reduced supply will support the strengthening of the market. However, the current downstream demand performance is average, polyester production and sales are still weak, the average production and sales are less than 50%, and the market is only Mainly maintain the need to replenish supplies. In the short term, there will be a slight destocking of PTA market supply.

PTA installation status list

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

Entering August, the domestic PTA operating rate remained low. Among them, the PTA operating rate between the 1st and the 8th was less than 70%, a new low for the year. Among them, the 1.25-million-ton PTA unit of Zhuhai Ineos was restarted around August 6, but the unit unexpectedly stopped nearby on July 31; the PTA3# 2.2-million-ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical has been shut down for maintenance since August 1 as planned. The restart time is to be determined. The PTA5# 2.5 million ton unit was overhauled on July 2 and has now been restarted; Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton unit was shut down for maintenance on August 2 and is expected to last for about 2-3 weeks; Yisheng Petrochemical’s 2 million ton unit It was shut down on July 25, and the restart time is to be determined; the 2.25 million-ton unit of Yisheng Chemical was reduced to about 60% on July 28, and the recovery time is to be determined; the 4.5 million-ton unit of Fuhai Chuang is planned to restart around August 14. The device started maintenance on July 12, and after restarting, it was about 50% operational. As the maintenance equipment of various factories has been restored one after another, the PTA operating rate has maintained at 71.01% so far, which is still at a low level according to the data.

PTA inventory status

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

As of August 11, Jinlianchuang statistics show that PTA social inventory is about 2.133 million tons, a decrease of 96,000 tons from last week. The PTA operating rate remained low during the week, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. However, downstream polyester factories just need to replenish stocks and mainly digest inventory to a certain extent. At present, the comprehensive production capacity of polyester has returned to 80.62%. PTA inventory remains depleted this week.

In the later period (August 12-August 18), it is understood that the PTA maintenance equipment in the early stage will be maintained, and the operating rate may continue to be low. However, under high temperature weather, the operating rate of some terminal weaving plants is low, and demand recovery is limited. In the short term, PTA market inventory may fluctuate within a narrow range.

The supply and demand of PTA itself has not been the dominant factor in price operation, and the PTA market supply has experienced a slight destocking in the short term.

In terms of the market, the raw material PX equipment is under maintenance and the supply reduction is good for PX prices. The cost side has solid support for PTA. The current PX-PTA processing fee remains at the level of 400-600 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been too many equipment overhauls in PTA factories, and the operating rate has dropped to the low point at the end of the year, which has supported the PTA market price to a certain extent. However, the demand for downstream polyester continues to be weak, and the terminal still lacks substantial orders. It is expected that the PTA market may remain volatile in the short term.

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Author: clsrich