Last week, domestic and foreign cotton futures experienced a long-awaited rise. ICE US cotton futures broke through 100 cents/pound and hit the 105 cents/pound mark. After maintaining gains for three consecutive trading days, as of August 11 On the same day, the ICE US cotton December contract settlement reached 104.59 cents/pound. At the same time, Zheng cotton futures also showed a strong upward trend. The main CF2301 contract rose to about 15,000 yuan/ton last Friday, and the cumulative increase from last Monday has exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. . The strength of internal and external futures has once again boosted market confidence. However, according to the recent operations of real enterprises, the spot market transactions are average and prices have risen slowly.
Cotton futures fell sharply in July, which had a significant impact on both the upstream and downstream industries. Some downstream textile companies temporarily suspended production and waited and waited after receiving price adjustment letters from the terminal market due to unexpected fluctuations in raw material prices. The recent slow rise in Zheng cotton futures has not changed the problems of high yarn inventories and lack of orders among textile companies. In addition, there is only more than a month left for new cotton to go on the market, and industry players are increasingly worried about increased production and low opening prices of new cotton. Therefore, although the Zheng Cotton CF2301 and CF2209 contracts once exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton last Friday, most of the spot goods on sale have not been adjusted. In addition, some companies that are about to accelerate preparations for the new cotton harvest are still looking for buyers at lower market prices. Some middlemen from Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang even traveled to various places to visit and look for cooperation opportunities.
In order to speed up the consumption of stocks in Xinjiang, some cotton-related companies expanded the scale of Xinjiang’s relocation to the mainland. The amount of Xinjiang cotton exported from Xinjiang increased significantly last week. However, the good times did not last long. An epidemic broke out in Xinjiang, which caused some areas to implement static management and exports. The number of freight logistics vehicles in Xinjiang has decreased, and some regional warehouses have increased the review requirements for vehicles entering and exiting the warehouse, resulting in a significant decline in the number of cotton moved to warehouses. According to feedback from some enterprises in Xinjiang, the number of warehouse transfers in the middle and late half of the year remains to be seen. On the one hand, it has become more difficult to find trucks in the near future, and on the other hand, the start-up of mainland spinning enterprises is still low. After the warehouse transfer, the inability to ship goods in time will also affect Follow-up rhythm of going out to Xinjiang.
Generally speaking, the recent rise in futures has boosted market confidence. However, spot transactions still face many difficulties, and the increase in spot prices will therefore be limited. Do not be overly bullish.
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