The polyester filament market may continue to remain stagnant

This summer, the heat in Zhejiang has escalated. High temperatures of 40℃+ have returned. The opening show in August is still a rolling heat wave. During the peak electricity consu…

This summer, the heat in Zhejiang has escalated. High temperatures of 40℃+ have returned. The opening show in August is still a rolling heat wave. During the peak electricity consumption period in summer, in order to ensure people’s livelihood, the government has taken appropriate peak avoidance measures. necessary measures. Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. recently issued a notice to launch C-level orderly power consumption. Haining, Changxing, Xiaoshan, Shaoxing, Ningbo and other places have different power restriction measures.

According to statistics from Longzhong Information, some enterprises in Xiaoshan area have implemented a one-stop operation, and the load of some polyester production enterprises in Xiaoshan area has been reduced to nearly 50%; Changxing and other areas have been subject to power cuts for about three days since the 8th. The current power restriction policy has limited impact on polyester pre-spinning, but texturing companies consume a lot of electricity and their inventory levels are high. Some companies have stopped and reduced their workload, and the overall operating rate has dropped significantly. Some electricity usage policies are as follows:

Table 1 Six-level staggered peak avoidance plan and mobile load production limit proportion arrangement in the coastal area in 2022

Table 2 Implementation plan for orderly electricity use in Changxing area from August 8 to 14

In July, the focus of polyester filament transactions continued to bottom out. Since the middle to late period, downstream texturing manufacturers have successively replenished their positions at low prices, and raw material stocks are sufficient. At the same time, winter sample orders have been issued, and local demand has improved, and some texturing factories that have stopped in the early stage have successively After restarting, increasing the load, and reloading, the activation rate also saw a slight increase at the end of July. Among them, the operating rate in Taicang area is 50-60%, the operating rate in Changshu area is 60%, the operating rate in Xiaoshao area is 60-70%, the operating rate in Changxing area is 60%, and the operating rate in Cixi area is 60-70%.

With the increase in elasticity and the help of the cost side, polyester filament experienced a rebound in early August, and the focus of transactions rose. However, the demand increased slowly. After a temporary rise, polyester filament began to sell goods at a profit. The focus of filament trading continues to decline.

As shown in the figure above, taking POY150D/48F as an example, the current market transaction center is at a low level in the first half of the year. Looking at the price trends in previous years, we can see that the market is still in a downward channel in August, and the start of large-volume orders in winter begins at the end of August and the beginning of September. . At present, the power restriction policy has been implemented in Zhejiang, which will affect the supply and demand of polyester filament and downstream fields to a certain extent. Looking back on the impact of the power restriction policy in the third quarter of 2021, polyester filament and downstream fields have independently destocked, boosting the market rebound. This year Can the market continue? Last year’s market rebound was mainly due to the increase in winter orders, in addition to the positive boost of supply reduction. However, this year’s terminal demand was affected by the epidemic, geopolitical crisis and other factors. Orders shrunk and some orders were transferred to Southeast Asia and other regions. Therefore, the supply reduction was not as strong as The market may remain stagnant due to the shrinking demand.

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Author: clsrich