Recently, the polyester chain has rebounded collectively, PTA has returned to the shock platform at the end of July, staple fiber has regained its 7,000-point loss, and ethylene glycol has ended its five-game losing streak.
What are the driving factors for polyester chain rebound? The growth rate of ethylene glycol is obviously lower than that of PTA and staple fiber. What is the reason? After the main force moves positions, will the three types of polyester chain continue to rebound? How much space is there above and what is the reason?
[Institutional consultation]: Yesterday, the polyester chain rebounded collectively, with PTA and staple fiber leading the gains. What are the driving factors for the rebound?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: Chemical products rebounded as a whole yesterday, among which among the three varieties of the polyester industry chain, PTA and staple fiber led the gains. Staple fiber mainly follows PTA, while PTA is more driven by the rebound in oil prices. Last week, PTA prices were once strong, but dragged down by the continued decline in oil prices, PTA fell sharply on Friday. As oil prices stabilized in the evening session, PTA showed signs of stabilization and recovery. Yesterday, in an environment where the external market rebounded as a whole, PTA performed strongly, closing the positive line and completely recovering last Friday’s decline. In addition to oil prices, the financial game is also one of the reasons for the recent violent fluctuations in PTA.
Founder mid-term futures Feng Xiaofen: The rise in PTA and ethylene glycol is mainly due to the increase in cost-side oil prices, which boosts market sentiment. In the past two years, a large number of new production capacities of PTA and ethylene glycol have been released, which has caused a mismatch between supply and demand of industry production capacity. Price rises and falls are more dependent on cost-side fluctuations. As oil prices rise, it will support the varieties of the downstream polyester industry chain; in addition, in the near future, PTA and ethylene glycol equipment are undergoing frequent maintenance, and the supply and demand of various types are in a tight balance, and there is certain positive support.
Founder mid-term futures Yu Yangfeng: The rise in short-fiber futures is driven by raw materials, and then the spot price fell by 50 to 125 yuan/ton, indicating that actual spot demand and market outlook expectations are bearish.
[Institutional consultation]: The growth rate of ethylene glycol is obviously lower than that of PTA and staple fiber. Please analyze the reasons based on fundamentals?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: The fluctuation of ethylene glycol during the year was generally lower than that of PTA and staple fiber. This was mainly due to the pressure of overcapacity, which created great upward resistance for ethylene glycol. Recently, the production of the entire industry chain is still in a state of deep loss. Some devices are undergoing maintenance from the end of July to August. The operating rate of ethylene glycol is as low as below 50%. However, consumption is sluggish, and in mid-to-late August, Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical A total of 2.6 million tons of ethylene glycol units of the two major companies are expected to restart, so the rebound of ethylene glycol is obviously weak.
Founder Mid-term Futures Feng Xiaofen: Since mid-to-late July, ethylene glycol equipment has entered a large-scale centralized maintenance period, and the operating load has hit a record low, supporting ethylene glycol to rebound in late July. As the good news comes to light, the supply side The continued contraction is limited, while downstream demand continues to be weak and short-term recovery is weak. The pressure of high ethylene glycol inventory is superimposed, and the price trend of ethylene glycol futures is under pressure. In addition, according to the new device production plan, multiple sets of devices are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter. The large amount of new production capacity has further dragged down the market mentality, making the growth rate of ethylene glycol significantly lower than that of PTA and staple fiber.
[Institutional consultation]: After the main force moves positions, will the three types of polyester chains continue to rebound? How big is the upper space and what is the reason?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: Whether the three polyester varieties can continue to rebound is still directly related to oil prices. If oil prices rebound, and with the recovery of terminal textile printing and dyeing operating rates in next August, good costs and consumption may support a continued rebound in prices. In this case, the room for rebound can be slightly optimistic; conversely, if oil prices continue to be biased If the market sentiment is weak and the downstream market mentality is difficult to obtain support, the rebound may only be a short-term performance. However, from the mid-term perspective, all three varieties are facing pressure from the commissioning of new devices, and it is difficult to continue to be optimistic.
Founder Mid-term Futures Feng Xiaofen: As Europe and the United States and other countries enter the channel of rapid interest rate hikes, economic data has continued to weaken after peaking, and expectations of a global economic recession have strengthened. It is expected that the oil price center may decline. Judging from the supply and demand situation of PTA itself, there were many equipment shutdowns for maintenance last week, and the operating load dropped significantly. On the demand side, due to the impact of self-disciplined production reductions and peak staggered production of polyester factories, the overall operating operation remained at a low level. PTA supply and demand maintained a tight balance. However, due to PTA has a high correlation with crude oil prices. It is expected that the upside potential of PTA will be limited. PTA will maintain wide fluctuations before September. In terms of ethylene glycol, both supply and demand are weak. Due to the more obvious shrinkage on the supply side, ethylene glycol will undergo a phased destocking in August. In the later period, with the restart of equipment and the release of new production capacity, there is a high probability that ethylene glycol will turn into a negative market again in the fourth quarter. library channel. Recently, some areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have issued high-temperature peak-shifting production measures, which has further hindered the recovery of polyester demand. It is expected that until there is no significant improvement expected on the demand side, ethylene glycol is likely to operate mainly at low levels and under pressure.
Founder mid-term futures Yu Yangfeng: The operating rate of short fiber is expected to continue to rise within a narrow range, and there are plans to put new equipment into production in August, so the supply of short fiber will continue to increase. In terms of demand, terminal orders are limited and downstream finished product inventories are high. Coupled with poor profitability and high temperatures in summer, downstream operations generally remain low. Therefore, the demand for short fiber is mainly cautious. If terminal orders pick up in late August, demand may improve. . On the whole, the supply and demand side of short fiber is still weak, and the absolute price fluctuates with the raw materials. However, the room for increase is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the pressure of 7500 above.