PTA trend: price rises and then fluctuates
Looking at the year, the high point of market prices occurred in June; the low point occurred in January; cost logic dominates. From February to March, geopolitical tensions were tense, and international oil prices rose from a new high in more than seven years to a 14-year high. Costs dominated, diluting the negative effects of new production capacity, while the increase in polyester load provided effective support. The market combined with factory sentiment to reduce losses and reduce contracts, warehouse receipts continued to be written off, spot resource circulation tightened, and market prices rose; from April to May, high oil prices and strong PX support kept market prices at a high level, but weaving, Polyester has declined and production has been reduced, and PTA processing fees have been put to the test. Factories have simultaneously reduced prices and reduced production. Continuous destocking boosted market gains.
In June, during the Dragon Boat Festival, PTA market prices continued to rise, rising by nearly a thousand yuan before and after the festival, an increase of more than 13%. The rise is mainly supported by the cost side. The overseas travel season is ushering in. Under the unexpected loss of px, PTA has fluctuated after hitting the daily limit on the first day of its return. Combined with the continued promotion of polyester and the downstream buying sentiment is quite high, the polyester load is slightly When the price rises and the warehouse goes out, PTA passively follows the rise. After the middle of the year, as the country digested the boost brought by the continued increase in PX load, the logic of PX oil adjustment was diluted, and the market price gradually corrected, giving up more than half of the increase.
In July, the macroeconomic weakness caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike could not be alleviated. The absolute price of PTA followed the plunge of crude oil, and the news of power cuts in 28 provinces aggravated the bearish expectations of the sector. However, after some PTA factories saw a decrease in their own PX and PTA installations, considering that the spot supply was tight, the price support sentiment was obvious, and the fixed price continued to be high, with the spot basis rising to more than 500, which somewhat offset the low processing fee. However, the demand is bearish, the cost is insufficient, and the continued high basis makes it difficult to undertake, and the spot basis gradually returns; after the recent shrinkage of the supply side combined with the continuous decline of polyester, and after seeing the lower edge of PTA, polyester profits have recovered and interspersed A sudden rebound in promotions led to destocking, and as demand rebounded, market prices gradually rose.
Polyester demand: gradually stabilized after falling
Polyester has a high load during the year, especially early in the year. Firstly, with obvious support from domestic demand in the first quarter and expectations for the increase in foreign trade and gold prices, polyester load continues to rise and consumption increases; secondly, while PTA processing fees continue to be suppressed, polyester profits can still be maintained and load It will remain high until the epidemic breaks the rhythm. Judging from the profit situation, it is especially obvious. Among the average annual profits, PTA profits were abundant in the early days. However, 19 years later, with the launch of new production capacity, industry profits shifted to polyester. PTA profits were negative during the year, but the average profits of polyester still existed. According to actual profits, PTA’s current processing fee is around 300, and most factories are still losing money. After polyester digests low-priced raw materials, it is difficult for the downstream industry to take on the industrial growth, and it is inevitable to go from loss to recovery. In late July, profits have gradually turned losses into profits, loads have picked up moderately, and the market is in urgent demand.
Market consumption: Gradually rebounding
Comparing textile and clothing with social retail. Textile and clothing retail sales have declined year-on-year since September last year, but social retail sales are still growing positively. As an optional consumption, the demand for textile and clothing is still strong for people’s livelihood. The epidemic occurred during the year, and clothing retail sales from January to April were -27% year-on-year;
Textile and clothing-more than 10%. From January to June 2022, social consumption rebounded from -2% to -0.7% year-on-year, textile and clothing retail sales were -6.7% year-on-year, and clothing retail sales were -8% year-on-year, which is also better than the year-on-year data from January to May.