Crude oil
Crude oil: Oil prices rose by 6.75% this week, the highest closing price since October 2014; the weekly increase was 5.54%, the fourth consecutive week of gains. Thanks to supply constraints, it has given a strong boost to the crude oil market. As global consumption has withstood the test of the omicron epidemic, and there are signs that supply and demand are tightening, it has provided strong support for the rise in oil prices; at the same time, the recent intensification of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has also boosted oil prices. As of Friday’s close, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $2.15, or 2.62%, at $84.27 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil (ICE) futures on London’s Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2, or 2.37%, at $86.47 per barrel.
PX aspects
PX: Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the PX market price trend increased this week. Recently, the domestic supply of paraxylene has been normal, and the domestic PX operating rate has been more than 70%. In addition, the operation of overseas units has been relatively normal. The current short-term crude oil price is still supported, but the downstream PTA and textile prices are average, and the polyester market remains weak. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene may remain temporarily stable in the later period.
PTA aspects
In terms of PTA: Against the background of the upward shift in the center of gravity of international oil prices, PTA has also experienced a wave of rising prices. At present, the price of crude oil has reached a new high. It cannot be ruled out that the market will have some resistance to high oil prices in the future. The driving force for the continued rise of crude oil prices may be insufficient. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of PTA is currently relatively stable. Factories have released some spot goods, and the supply of goods in circulation has eased. The polyester load on the demand side has not yet declined significantly. The load on terminal looms has dropped significantly. The current basis remains stable, but towards the end of the year , the expectation of weakening supply and demand still exists, and the monthly accumulation pattern is superimposed, and the basic support for PTA is not strong. In the absence of strong fundamental support, PTA is still cost-led and may continue to follow crude oil in the future. If crude oil pulls back, PTA is likely to follow the decline. It is expected that the PTA market may have weakening adjustment demand in the later period, and the overall trend in January may be high and then low.
MEG aspects
MEG: On Friday, the average P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5191.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.67 yuan/ton from the previous statistical period. In terms of inventory, port inventories have accumulated slightly. As of January 14, the total ethylene glycol inventory in main ports in East China was 717,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last Monday, an increase of 1.99%. The expected arrival volume next week is reduced. According to incomplete statistics, between January 14th and January 19th, the total number of arrivals at major terminals in East China is expected to be approximately 188,900 tons. In terms of equipment, equipment maintenance has been frequent recently, MEG’s operating rate has declined, short-term supply-side support has been obvious, and the industry’s mentality is optimistic. In terms of costs, the international crude oil market is strong, naphtha market prices continue to rise, the coal market has stabilized, and ethylene glycol is expected to consolidate.
Slicing
In terms of slicing: The market price of polyester chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose this week, with some manufacturers seeing larger increases and transaction volume being average. Semi-glossy slicing manufacturers quoted 6800-6900 yuan/ton (cash), and discussions may be around 6750-6800 yuan/ton (cash); glossy slicing manufacturers quoted 6950-7100 yuan/ton (cash), Negotiation may be around 6,900-7,000 yuan/ton (cash).
Polyester
Polyester yarn: With the rise of crude oil, the mainstream quotations of polyester factories have risen on the 12th. Some users are worried that polyester filament yarns are expected to continue to rise in the future, which has led to an increase in downstream purchasing efforts in the near future. In the short term, raw materials are easy to rise but difficult to fall, so they believe that polyester filament yarns also have upward expectations. It is understood that logistics and transportation have been affected after New Year’s Day, and the delivery speed of polyester factories has slowed down. Although the inventory days continue to decline, inventory pressure still exists, which seems to confirm the rumors of promotion. However, considering the cost pressure, polyester filament manufacturers believe that there is little expectation for promotions, which will depend on the price trend of raw materials. Taken together, the polyester filament market is stagnant due to the game between cost and supply and demand.
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