A brief introduction to the first part
The overall presentation of the upstream and downstream markets of the polyester industry chain in July The shock pattern is strong. The high fluctuations in international crude oil prices have given a certain boost to the trend of the polyester raw material market. In the second half of the year, due to the closure of ports due to typhoons, the polyester raw material market set off another wave of growth. Driven by costs, the polyester product market followed the raw material market. And fluctuate. The cost of polyester raw materials continues to rise, and polyester PET and polyester staple fiber factories have fallen into losses. Only polyester filament has maintained relative cash flow, and polyester companies have gradually reduced production. Terminal textile and weaving demand is still in the off-season. Affected by power restrictions and typhoons, the operating load has dropped and inventories are relatively high. Therefore, the polyester industry chain market is still under the dual pressure of high costs and low demand.
Table 1 The rise and fall rankings of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in July
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As shown in Table 1, In terms of month-on-month range, in July PX (CFR Taiwan) rose 7.24% month-on-month, PTA rose 8.73% month-on-month, MEG rose 6.26% month-on-month, polyester chips fell 7.02% month-on-month, polyester bottle chips rose 4.97% month-on-month, and polyester filament The month-on-month increase was 7.41%, and the polyester staple fiber rose 4.06% month-on-month
Part 2 Analysis of the rise and fall and trend of the chemical fiber industry chain in July
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Jinlianchuang Chemical Fiber Industry Chain has monitored the monthly average prices of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials, as shown in the figure above, The monthly average price of chemical fiber products in July all increased, with the increase concentrated at 4-9%. The largest increase was PTA, which increased by 8.73%, followed by polyester filament, which increased by 7.41%.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From the statistics of the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in July, as shown in the figure above, monthly The domestic chemical fiber industry chain market is dominated by strong fluctuations, and its overall level has significantly exceeded the price of the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, it can be seen that PX prices have the largest increase, with the monthly average price rising 74.56% year-on-year, followed by polyester, with the monthly average price The increase compared with last year was 54.52%. The smallest increase was polyester bottle chips, which increased by 26.72%.
The third part of the market analysis of the main products of the chemical fiber chain
PX
The Asian PX market fluctuated and rose in July. As of the end of the month, Asian PX was estimated at US$929/ton FOB South Korea and US$947/ton CFR Taiwan/China, which was US$33/ton higher than the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil surged again, and the upstream and downstream markets saw a sharp rise. Business operators had a strong intention to raise prices. However, soon, as crude oil fell from high levels, merchants became fearful of high prices, and the downstream PTA market fell sharply. In addition, the supply of PX was basically at a low level. Returning to high levels, the industry players are cautious. Merchants are worried that the new PX device will be put into production soon. Some merchants have taken profits and shipped goods. However, the downstream PTA market has performed well, and Weilian Chemical’s 1 million tons/year PX device has been shut down for maintenance, supporting market sentiment. The sharp drop in crude oil in the second half of the month once again triggered a market correction. However, as chemical products generally showed a certain resilience, the PX decline was not significant. At the end of the month, international crude oil continued to rebound, and the market sentiment was good. Crude oil and naphtha were strong, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new PX equipment was not yet available. It is put into production as scheduled, and the supply of PX is relatively small. The confidence of holders has increased, and the offer is firm. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in July was 7,100 yuan/ton, which was 600 yuan/ton higher than the settlement price last month. The average price of CFR Taiwan/China in July was US$932.14/ton, up 7.09% month-on-month and 71.74% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$911/ton on July 9, and the highest price was US$967/ton on July 7. Ton.
PTA
The domestic PTA market rose sharply in July, and the overall trading sentiment was acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil production increase plan was smaller than expected. The rise in oil prices supported the strength of the PTA market. At the same time, Yisheng’s chemical plant implemented a short stop, and the supply shrinkage helped PTA continue to rise. The market’s bullish sentiment was high and the basis spread strengthened. On the 8th, the East China main port cargo offer for the 2109 contract was reduced by 15 yuan/ton, and the delivery price was reduced by 20 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4940-4960 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the PTA market was mainly strong, and some polyester factories were actively enquiring. With the coexistence of maintenance and restart of some PTA factory equipment, the operating capacity is close to 76.28%, and the supply pressure is not great. However, the downstream polyester production operation remains high, and the terminal textile market orders have improved. Therefore, the supply and demand fundamentals have boosted the market, and the PTA market continues to be strong. pattern. On the 15th, the East China main port cargo offer was implemented as contract 2109 plus 5 yuan/ton or flat water, and the offer was reduced by 10 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 5040-5070 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the typhoon affected the closure of ports, blocking the delivery of some goods from the warehouse, and the supply of spot goods was tight; on the 22nd, the main futures opened at 2109 and the daily limit was limited, and the spot goods were mainly reluctant to sell. The basis difference strengthened significantly, and the atmosphere of the market was high. The offer for goods from the main port in East China will be increased by 40-50 yuan/ton for the 2109 contract, while the offer will be reduced by 40 yuan/ton, and the negotiation will be around 5360-5390 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, although the port closures were eased and some goods began to circulate, the cost side still provided strong support to the PTA market.�� has been reduced. At the end of the month, polyester raw materials showed a strong and volatile trend as a whole, with strong support from the cost side, and polyester factory quotations rose steadily. Downstream factory procurement has become divided. Some companies are restricted by financial pressure and are mainly waiting and watching. Some weaving factories are buying at low prices and replenishing supplies appropriately. Affected by this, the production and sales of polyester factories this month varied. Overall, the trading atmosphere in the polyester yarn market this month was average, and the focus of polyester yarn transactions increased. As of now, the average market price of polyester filament POY in East China is 7,780 yuan/ton, up 7.41% month-on-month and 54.52% year-on-year. The highest price was 8,050 yuan/ton on July 30, and the lowest price was 7,350 yuan/ton on the 1st. /Ton.
Part 4 Forecast and Outlook
Jin Lianchuang forecasts the polyester industry in August The chain market may maintain a high and strong pattern. International crude oil may continue to be at a high level next month. The polyester raw material PTA still depends on changes in cost and may maintain strong fluctuations. The ethylene glycol market will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the cost is firmly supported by the polyester market. Under the pressure of high costs and high inventories, polyester companies still maintain production restrictions, and weak demand continues to drag down the overall market atmosphere. Taken together, the polyester industry chain market will still be dominated by shocks next month. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX
Jinlianchuang expects August The PX market is in a stalemate between long and short, and it is easy to fall but difficult to rise. As the epidemic situation worsens, it may affect the mentality of the industry. In addition, the second phase of the PX device of Zhejiang Petrochemical is in the commissioning stage and will soon be put into production and volume. The downstream industry maintains rigid procurement. On the whole, It is expected that the PX market will fall easily but not rise in August. Pay attention to the situation of new devices.
PTA
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PTA market may be relatively volatile in August. The current PTA market trend is relatively strong, mainly supported by the cost side and the tight supply caused by the delivery of the 09 contract. It is understood that some PTA units were still shut down for maintenance in August, and the operating rate remained at a low level at the end of the year. With some polyester factories experiencing slight production cuts, although demand has weakened, there is still strong demand. Therefore, the PTA supply and demand pattern is relatively stable and is expected to continue in the destocking cycle. In addition, the crude oil market is at the peak of oil consumption in summer, so the benefits of oil prices outweigh the disadvantages. With cost support, the PTA market is expected to remain strong in August.
MEG
In August, some coal-making equipment will be overhauled, and domestic supply will decrease. Although new equipment may be put into operation in August, due to the lack of There are too many certain factors, so although the market is worried, it still has optimistic expectations. The downstream industry still maintains rigid demand, and the overall construction start is relatively stable. In the short term, the ethylene glycol market is supported by good supply, and the price may fluctuate at a high level. Pay more attention to the situation of new installations. The fluctuation range is expected to be 5350-5650 yuan/ton.
Polyester PET
Jin Lianchuang predicts that in August, the polyester PET market may reach a high level Shock operation. From the supply side, due to the impact of typhoon weather, many polyester PET factories reduced production or overhauled their equipment in July. Business operations were reduced due to shocks, and market supply decreased. From the demand side, the terminal textile market may gradually usher in the traditional consumption peak season at the end of August. It is expected that in mid-to-late August, the production and sales in the downstream market may gradually increase, and demand may slowly increase. From the cost side, the PTA market and ethylene glycol market are more willing to raise prices in the short term, which will strengthen the market boost and provide solid support on the cost side. Taken together, market supply pressure may gradually emerge. Therefore, the polyester chip market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in August. In the future, we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market.
Polyester fiber
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester fiber market will be strong in August. host. The crude oil market is at the peak of oil consumption in summer, so the benefits of oil prices outweigh the disadvantages. With cost support, the PTA market is expected to remain strong in August. Although the inventory pressure of polyester fiber factories is not great, production reductions were still maintained in August. However, there is a large amount of social inventory and limited demand growth from downstream weaving factories, which restricts the overall price fluctuation space of the polyester fiber market. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market will mainly follow the strong trend of raw materials.
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