Affected by the rapid spread of the global Delta new coronavirus variant strain, the market’s concerns about insufficient international crude oil demand have intensified, coupled with the negative factors of OPEC+’s decision to further increase production, market sentiment has become cautious, and international crude oil prices have further weakened.
Liu Jiao, an analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, believes that the international oil market has weakened significantly recently, which can be said to be the result of multiple bad news. “The market is worried that the rebound in the epidemic caused by the Delta mutant strain will inhibit the recovery of crude oil demand. If the demand side supporting the rise in oil prices collapses, it will undoubtedly affect the future oil price trend. In addition, OPEC+’s increase in crude oil production will also have a certain impact on the crude oil market. The atmosphere has brought pressure. In addition, global manufacturing data has declined. PMI, as a leading indicator of the economy, has slowed down manufacturing activities. Market concerns about economic recovery have once again affected oil market demand,” she said.
Under the current cautious and sensitive market sentiment, new concerns have emerged in the crude oil market. According to media reports, there have been many ship attacks and hijackings in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf recently, and Western countries have generally pointed the finger at Iran. At a time when tensions between Western countries and Iran are intensifying, the resumption of nuclear agreement negotiations between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock.
Zodiak Shipping Company said last Friday that its tanker “Mercer Street” was suspected of being attacked by a drone in the northern waters of the Indian Ocean on the 29th. A British The crew and one Romanian crew member died. According to a reporter from Futures Daily, Zodiak Shipping Company is affiliated to the Zodiak Group controlled by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer and his family.
After the incident, Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States all accused Iran of attacking the “Mercer Street”, causing tensions in the region to rise. Iran firmly denied it.
British Foreign Secretary Raab said on Sunday that the incident was most likely caused by Iran using one or more drones to attack, and the UK and its international partners would Make a “coordinated response”. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken also pointed out that the United States is “confident” that Iran launched the attack using a drone carrying explosives. The United States is considering follow-up measures with its partners and is consulting with countries in the region and beyond on “appropriate response measures.”
In response to this, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh responded on Monday that Iran condemned the “unfounded” accusations and accusations made by the United Kingdom and the United States in the “strongest terms”. “Political provocation”. He pointed out that Britain and the United States did not provide any evidence to support the statement that “Iran attacked oil tankers.” Iran will not hesitate to defend its national security and interests and respond quickly and decisively to any possible risky moves.
In fact, after crude oil prices weakened sharply on Tuesday, they rebounded rapidly due to the impact of multiple ship attacks and hijackings in the Middle East.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said that after the accident of an Israeli oil tanker a few days ago, all the focus was directed at Iran, claiming that Iran was using Man-machine attacks on oil tankers. Later, there was news that Iranian-backed forces had seized an oil tanker in the Middle East Gulf. These two events put together have once again heated up geopolitical events. In this regard, Yang An said that at present, the incident has not escalated or worsened, and it is not enough to have a big impact on the supply of crude oil market. It is more at the level of speculation. The impact on oil prices is only a short-term fluctuation and does not affect the overall trend.
“Many ship attacks and hijackings have occurred in the Middle East waters, exacerbating tensions between Iran and Western countries. The resumption of nuclear agreement negotiations between the United States and Iran may be shelved, which means that in the short term There is no hope for Iranian oil to return to the market. This is good news for oil prices, but the temporary impact is limited. If tensions further escalate, it will bring upward momentum to oil prices,” Liu Jiao said.
There is no doubt that the US-Iran nuclear talks have attracted much attention in geopolitics this year. Since the start of the negotiations in early April, the conflicts between the two countries have continued unabated. This makes the road to Iranian crude oil’s “comeback” even more difficult.
In Liu Jiao’s view, the situation in the Middle East is heating up, Iran’s stance is tough, and the interests of both sides are competing. It will be difficult for the United States and Iran to restart nuclear agreement negotiations in the short term. The market expects that the negotiation process will be A longer process. Before the “comeback” of Iranian crude oil, there will be no negative impact for the time being, and it will be a positive factor for the global oil market price to resume upward.
In this regard, Yang An analyzed that Iran’s new president officially took office on August 5. Prior to this, Western countries repeated their old tricks and put extreme pressure on Iran. Similar methods have already been seen There are too many, bombing oil tankers, drones, etc. are the best excuses to blame Iran. In fact, from a rational perspective, Iran has no motive for doing these things. Although Iran’s new president has a tough attitude towards Western countries, he is obviously not willing to cause himself too much trouble at critical moments. These extreme pressures from Western countries are obviously intended to make Iran’s new president feel pressured to accept the conditions they propose. However, the new President Lacey, as a relatively hard-liner, is likely to continue to be tough on the Iran nuclear agreement and will not give in. This may also be the motivation for Western countries to use geopolitical means to put pressure on Iran.
“So there is still great uncertainty about the Iran issue in the future. If Iran finally compromises, then the Iran nuclear agreement willThe expectation that nearly 2 million barrels per day of crude oil will be released to the market is obviously unbearable for the crude oil market, whose current confidence has begun to waver. This negative factor may become the last straw that crushes oil prices. ” said Yang An.</p
