Under the influence of the continuous expansion of domestic polyester filament production capacity, exports have become another major demand area for domestic polyester filament. And under the low base effect, the export volume of polyester filament in the first half of this year increased significantly compared with the same period last year. According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2021, domestic polyester filament exports totaled 1.6324 million tons, a sharp increase of 44.57% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 3.20% compared with the second half of 2020. Judging from the month-to-month year-on-year data, the overall increase range is between 10.68% and 99.07%, and the increase is relatively obvious.
India imports large quantities of polyester filament:
Polyester factory “Quick-acting Jiuxin Pill” and the hidden worries of textile enterprises
Looking purely from the surge in polyester filament exports, amid the decline in oil prices in recent years, the actual profits of China’s polyester industry chain are Showing a rebound trend, “profit or not” has always been an important criterion for companies to measure whether to start operations. And in the context of the polyester industry itself already facing severe oversupply, the profit recovery brought about by cost reduction may be to a certain extent. In order to increase the industry’s start-up and stimulate the launch of new production capacity, the domestic polyester industry will also have large-scale production plans in recent years, which shows that the contradiction between market supply and demand is facing a further intensification. Export is a major digestion channel for Chinese polyester. The industry still has high expectations for it, and it is one of the solutions that many polyester manufacturers will consider.
What cannot be ignored is that from the perspective of major exporting countries, India’s export volume has grown particularly obvious. The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in India in the first half of the year significantly affected the production of local polyester raw materials and polyester fibers in India, dragging down local production capacity. As the world’s largest producer of polyester filament, China has become the best option for India to purchase polyester filament from China. We can see that in the first half of the year, domestic exports to India exceeded 200,000 tons, accounting for 10% of total exports. More than 13% of the amount. But at the same time, it can be seen from the signs of a surge in polyester exports that the demand for raw materials in many countries such as India has begun to recover. Coupled with the current international situation, it will inevitably affect the order demand for domestic textile and apparel. The risk of reverse flow of orders is worthy of the downstream textile and apparel industry. Think ahead.
The surge in exports cannot offset the contradiction between supply and demand!
Bad signal: Weavers are more willing to release inventory than to develop new products
According to data, polyester filament yarn is expected to be new in the second half of the year. The production capacity was increased by 3.55 million tons. The new production capacity is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In addition, Korla in Xinjiang and Weifang in Shandong have polyester filament projects. In the first half of the year, the new production capacity was 800,000 tons. In August last year, Hengke set up a 600,000-ton device. It will be put into production and will continue to be produced until April this year. Overall, polyester filament yarn production capacity is expected to be 4.95 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of more than 13%, while terminal consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 7%-8% throughout the year, which is less than the production capacity. The growth rate is expected, so with the rebound in export volume, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester filament is still highlighted.
Looking at previous years, the demand for polyester filament picked up during the “Golden September and Silver Ten” periods. Last year, despite the epidemic throughout the year, polyester filament experienced a big rebound in late September and October, and terminal demand After the outbreak, downstream users purchased large quantities of polyester filament, driving up the price of polyester filament. However, what is different from last year is that this year, downstream texturing and weaving companies are generally less willing to purchase polyester. Some warp knitting and circular knitting machine start-up rates are still declining to varying degrees. The inventory of finished gray fabrics is at a historical high, especially the textile raw material spandex. Prices have risen sharply and goods are in short supply. Negotiations between buyers and sellers have slowed down or even stagnated. Weaving companies have made meager profits. They are more willing to release inventory than develop new products. The number of raw material stocking days is only at a low level of 1-2 weeks. At the same time, downstream users have begun to start operations in advance since May. The procurement demand for autumn and winter orders is overdrawn in advance. However, the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled with the vaccination. At present, the overseas epidemic seems to have a counterattack trend. The polyester filament terminal field is mostly used in textiles and clothing, with a large proportion of exports. , therefore, the overseas epidemic has affected the export of textile and clothing. In addition, many issues such as trade disputes, increased shipping costs, and tight supply of containers have hindered the export of textile and clothing.
Taken together, the activities of major e-commerce platforms in September and October promoted demand to a certain extent. However, the peak season may not be able to continue last year’s demand. With explosive growth, polyester filament inventory may decline slightly in the third quarter. If there are no other emergencies to support it, inventory will gradually increase in the fourth quarter. </p
