On July 22, Zheng Cotton suddenly started a strong rebound rhythm. The main contract of CF2109 broke through 17,000 yuan/ton during the session, and the oscillation range of Zheng Cotton moved up to 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton. Judging from the market performance and market sentiment, the short-term high oscillation upward trend is strong.
Zheng Cotton successfully stood at the 17,000 yuan/ton point. Cotton-related companies have expected it after several consecutive corrections in the market. After all, the cotton reserves are coming out. Policy control measures such as sliding quasi-tariffs and increasing cotton import quotas have been implemented, and cotton futures have gradually resumed their upward momentum.
The author believes that the following four factors have a negative impact on Zheng Mian The boosting effect of the rebound cannot be underestimated: first, the spinning profits of cotton spinning mills continue to remain high, orders are relatively smooth, the accumulation of cotton yarn gray fabrics is not obvious, and the ability to withstand and digest rising cotton prices is very strong; second, Xinjiang has recently The weather in cotton areas was unfavorable, and high temperatures and drought continued in most cotton areas in early to mid-July, causing bolls to fall off in cotton fields and mild to moderate occurrences of pests and diseases. In recent days, some cotton areas in southern Xinjiang have experienced prolonged rainfall, and industry concerns about the output and quality of Xinjiang cotton in 2021/22 have increased. Third, China and the United States have agreed that US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman will hold a conference on July 25-26. Japan’s visit to Tianjin is expected to break the ice in Sino-US relations, with trade and exchanges stabilizing and rebounding, at least moving in a positive direction.
So how will the market run after Zheng Cotton’s main force breaks through 17,000 yuan/ton? The author believes that prices above 17,000 yuan/ton are mainly controlled by financial forces, and cotton fundamentals are not the key factor guiding the direction of Zheng cotton. Although the CF2109 contract has the power to test 17,500 yuan/ton in the short term, we must beware of the risk of sudden collapse and decline at any time.
At present, “Delta” and other new coronavirus mutant strains are making a comeback, and global trade and economic recovery are facing great uncertainty. The United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea When the COVID-19 epidemic in various countries worsens again, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic may reach its peak in September.
In addition, the Federal Reserve may advance the time to raise interest rates. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.9 percentage points month-on-month in June, the largest month-on-month increase since June 2008, with a year-on-year surge of 5.4%. Even excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased by 4.5% year-on-year, which was the highest in 1991. The largest year-on-year increase since November, the US CPI has “exploded” for a single month in a row. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on the 14th that if inflation continues to exceed the target level in the future, monetary policy will be adjusted appropriately.
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