The textile market has been as hot as this midsummer recently. You sing and I come on stage and listen to the sound of “rising”.
1 Oil leads the way and does not change its high level after falling back
This month Earlier, industrial policy talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (OPEC+) collapsed after the United Arab Emirates opposed an eight-month extension to the end of 2022.
OPEC+ agreed to a record production cut of nearly 10 million barrels per day last year in response to the drop in demand caused by the epidemic. As restrictions are gradually eased, the scale of production cuts has gradually been reduced to the current level of about 5.8 million barrels per day. Some investment banks said that even if OPEC+ finally reaches an agreement to gradually increase production by the end of 2021, global oil supply and demand will remain tight.
2 Polyester follows petroleum, and spandex becomes a dark horse
Petroleum The news that the major oil-producing countries of the Organization of Exporting Countries (OPEC) have reached a compromise has made investors prepare for an increase in supply. Although international crude oil has fallen back recently, it is still at a high level. In addition, the downstream market reaction will be delayed, and prices often rise. and price cuts will be two beats slower. From the market perspective, raw materials have risen wildly, fabrics have remained unchanged, the peak value of raw materials has fallen, and fabric prices have begun to adjust.
The spandex commodity index was 175.45 on July 15, setting a record high in the cycle and an increase of 169.92% from the lowest point of 65.00 points on July 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-07-01 to the present)
The spandex price index curve monitored by SunSirs data is as follows:
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic spandex market has been rising rapidly. As of March 7, 40D spandex has increased by nearly 70% compared with the beginning of the year. It then fell slightly and adjusted. In mid-May, it started to rise again and climbed. To a 10-year high, as of June 28, the price was 75,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 138.10%.
Current mainstream price statistics in the spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)
From the raw materials Look, the most direct reason for the rise in spandex prices is the skyrocketing price of BDO.
The main chemical raw materials for producing spandex are PTMEG and pure MDI. PTMEG accounts for up to 80% of the solid content of spandex, and the upstream of PTMEG is BDO.
In the third quarter of 2020, the price of pure MDI surged due to force majeure and maintenance of global MDI equipment, which promoted the first wave of rise in spandex prices. Later, since the first quarter of 2021, due to the skyrocketing price of raw material calcium carbide and the increase in demand for downstream biodegradable plastic PBAT, the price of BDO has skyrocketed. As the second largest downstream of BDO, PTMEG has been supported by cost-side price increases, which in turn has driven the second largest market for spandex. Round rise.
Due to the impact of the “new crown epidemic”, the demand for spandex has increased sharply: first, spandex filament is an important raw material for the production of mask ear straps; second, sportswear and yoga wear Demand is also increasing for this type of athleisure clothing, which generally has a higher spandex content. According to Zhejiang loom start-up statistics, as of June 24, the start-up levels of circular knitting machines and warp knitting machines were 61% and 87% respectively, an increase of 11 and 17 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year.
At the same time, the export volume of spandex has increased, because some foreign markets have not fully recovered due to the impact of the epidemic, so orders have shifted to domestic markets. The export volume in the first five months was approximately 40,500 tons, which was higher than last year. It increased by 58% in the same period. The dual benefits of domestic demand and export sales have promoted the development of the spandex industry.
3 Dyes have ended their silence and are ready to make efforts
Textile traders look at fabrics when making orders Price, on the other hand, mainly depends on the dyeing fee. In many cases, the weight of dyeing fees is greater than the price of fabrics, because there are many weaving mills and fierce competition, so the prices of fabrics are not much different. However, there is a large gap in dyeing costs. The prices of different regions, different processes, and different dyes are completely incomparable. A textile trader said that the dyeing fee for a 75D four-sided stretch fabric he is making is 1.1 yuan/meter including tax, while some dyeing factories have reported dyeing fees of about 2 yuan/meter, with a difference of nearly 1 yuan/meter.
A dye industry insider said that including mainstream major manufacturers in the dye industry, the industry’s average production capacity operating rate in the first half of the year was 50-60%, and profits All have been compressed to a certain extent. In addition, the performance of dye companies has also been differentiated. Zhejiang Longsheng, a leading dye company, ranked first in the industry in terms of revenue and profit in the first quarter, but fell 0.6% and 9.1% year-on-year respectively; Runtu Co., Ltd.’s net profit fell 23.4% year-on-year; Yabang Co., Ltd.’s net profit fell 26.07% year-on-year.
Recently, heavy rainfall in areas such as the Huanghuai River in North China has also caused 1/3 of the country’s chemical industry parks and 51% of chemical companies along the river to face difficulties in production, storage, transportation, etc. It was hit hard, involving nearly 10,000 chemical companies.
This will inevitably involve a large number of textile and dyeing material production companies, and a long-term suspension of production will inevitably stimulate an increase in dye prices. Especially the current time period is very special, because most printing and dyeing factories will reserve goods several months in advance.As for dyes, there are still two or three months left before the peak season of dye usage. The demand for dyes is about to explode. At this time, the suspension of production of dye factories will be “worse” for printing and dyeing factories.
The suspension of chemical production has pushed up the price of dyes. At this time, printing and dyeing factories stock up in advance and use high-priced dyes, which will inevitably be reflected in dyeing fees during the peak season when orders are busy. It is still unknown whether textile raw materials will rebound in the second half of the year, but there is no doubt that dyeing fees will increase. </p
