At the beginning of 2021, my country’s foreign trade exports got off to a good start, achieving rapid growth based on the low base at the beginning of 2020. In the first two months, textile and apparel exports achieved rapid positive growth, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of more than 50%, indicating that my country’s textile and apparel production and trade have fully recovered. However, as there is still uncertainty about the timing and extent of the recovery in global consumer demand, exports of anti-epidemic materials, which had played a major role in driving growth in the early stage, have gradually declined. The trend of boosting growth based solely on a very low year-on-year base will not last for a long time. Therefore, it is expected that although exports will still maintain growth in the second quarter of this year, the growth rate will return to normal levels.
The rise in raw material prices has adversely affected the production layout of enterprises. Since the beginning of the year, under the combined effects of the domestic economic boost, the recovery of international market demand after the epidemic eased, the stimulus of the US monetary easing policy, the surge in international crude oil prices, and capital speculation, the prices of textile raw materials have risen rapidly. They have been at a high level after the Spring Festival and have performed well. Prices have risen both at home and abroad. For example, in February, the average domestic price of cotton increased by 18% year-on-year and 3.6% month-on-month, respectively, while the average price of imported cotton increased by 20.8% year-on-year and month-on-month by 20.8% and 6.2% respectively. The growth rates of chemical fibers and man-made fibers are also high. The average growth rate of viscose, polyester and spandex at the beginning of the year reached more than 30%. The soaring prices of raw materials have further squeezed corporate profits, which is detrimental to companies starting production and receiving export orders.
Exchange rate fluctuations during the year will become the norm. In 2020, the RMB first depreciated and then rose against the US dollar, with an appreciation of 6.47% throughout the year. Since February 2021, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated slightly. At the end of February, the spot exchange rates of the onshore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.4590 and 6.4780 respectively, an appreciation of 0.03% and a depreciation of 0.5% respectively from the end of January. The two-way fluctuation trend is more obvious. Experts analyze that factors affecting the appreciation and depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in 2021 will exist at the same time. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated and risen, and two-way fluctuations near a reasonable equilibrium level may become the norm.
Export volume exceeded 2019 The level of the same period
In the first two months of 2021, the growth of China’s textile and clothing exports was mainly concentrated in February. Under the circumstances of low base + recovery in market demand + “celebrating the New Year on the spot”, in Thanks to the non-stop work in many places during the Spring Festival, exports in that month achieved huge growth. The growth rates of textiles and clothing, textiles and clothing in that month were not only as high as or nearly three times higher than the same period last year, but also pushed the monthly and cumulative exports to exceed those in 2019. same period level.
The United States has become our largest export market for textiles and clothing
After the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, the United States gradually It has surpassed the European Union (27 countries) to become China’s largest export market for textiles and clothing. From January to February 2021, my exports to the top four export markets, the United States, the European Union, ASEAN and Japan, reached US$8.51 billion, US$7.57 billion, US$6.71 billion and US$3.5 billion respectively, all achieving rapid growth, with an increase of 85.6% respectively. , 57.1%, 65.7% and 51.8%. Among them, exports of clothing to Europe, the United States and Japan, and yarn fabrics to ASEAN recovered rapidly, both exceeding the levels of the same period in 2019.
As the global epidemic further eases, the procurement strategies of the three key markets of Europe, the United States, and Japan have gradually returned to the pre-epidemic track, and the market share of Chinese products has fallen from its high point. In December 2020, China’s textiles and apparel accounted for 34.7% of the EU market, down 32.6 percentage points from the high point in May of that year; in January 2021, China accounted for 32.9% of the US market, down from the high point in January 2021. It fell by 27.5 percentage points, accounting for 58% of the Japanese market, and fell by 16 percentage points from its high point.
Commodity exports achieved restorative growth
Driven by a low base and anti-epidemic materials, From January to February this year, textile and clothing exports achieved recovery growth of 60.3% and 49.8% respectively year-on-year. The export growth rates of traditional bulk commodities yarn, fabrics, finished products and needle-woven clothing reached 27.4%, 38.2%, and 38.2% respectively. 99% and 39.5%.
According to China Customs HS6-digit code statistics (slightly larger caliber), the export volume of medical masks and medical protective clothing, which are the main anti-epidemic materials, reached a peak in May 2020 and then increased month by month. has declined, but the export scale is still at a high level. From January to February, the total exports of medical masks and medical protective clothing were US$5.54 billion, accounting for 11.7% of total exports, driving 6.4 percentage points to the overall export increase.
The central and western regions have the largest growth rate in textile and clothing exports
From January to February, exports across the country except Tibet and Xinjiang achieved growth, with 20 provinces (cities, districts) experiencing growth rates exceeding 50%. The performance of the central and western regions is even more outstanding. The export growth rate of Hubei, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Anhui, Yunnan and other provinces has more than doubled. The six central provinces have a total increase of 103%, and the 12 western provinces have a total increase of 55%, exceeding the national average.
The overall growth of imports driven by clothing
Textile and clothing imports stopped falling and turned to rise. From January to February, the cumulative import volume of textiles and clothing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, mainly driven by clothing, which increased by 50.4%, of which knitted and woven clothing increased by 37.8%.�Imports of intermediate goods have not resumed growth. Overall textile imports fell by 13.8%, of which yarns increased by 24.6% driven by rising prices, fabrics still fell by 1.7%, and finished products fell by 50.7%.
Cotton imports continue to grow rapidly
Entering 2021, cotton imports continued the growth trend at the end of last year, with a total of 690,000 tons imported in the first two months, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%. The United States is the largest source of imports, with a total of 298,000 tons imported from the United States, an increase of more than three times, and the proportion of American cotton is as high as 43%.
China Cotton Association analyzed that in February, driven by factors such as improved epidemic control at home and abroad and strong inflation expectations, the commodity market continued to rise, and cotton prices at home and abroad also hit annual highs. . Under the initiative of “celebrating the Chinese New Year on the spot” during the domestic Spring Festival, the textile industry resumed work and production ahead of schedule. Demand and consumption in the textile industry continued to improve, and domestic cotton prices continued to rise.
International cotton prices fluctuated upwards and fell back at the end of February. China’s imported cotton price index FC Index M averaged 94.07 cents/pound in each month, up 5.47 cents month-on-month and 16.17 cents year-on-year. cents. </p
