More than two years have passed since the important assertion that “the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century” was first raised. However, the changes are still uncertain, the situation is turbulent, and the future is difficult. The new journey of the “14th Five-Year Plan” is about to begin. In the important historical intersection period of the “Two Centenary Goals”, the textile industry is an important foundation for supporting the development of the national economy and society, ensuring and improving people’s livelihood, and meeting the people’s new expectations. As an industry, we have the unshirkable responsibility to break the situation and create new ones, so as to move forward steadily.
The impact of a century of changes on the development of the textile industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan” is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
01 Major changes have taken place in the international cooperation mechanism
Since this century, international The balance of power has undergone significant changes. During the heyday of economic globalization, the economic development speeds of developed and developing countries have been polarized for a long time (see Figure 1), and emerging economies have collectively risen on the international economic and political stage. As an increasingly mature major developing country, my country is moving closer to the center of the international stage. After achieving comprehensive poverty alleviation and building a moderately prosperous society, its large and high-quality domestic demand market will become the core engine of the world economy. In recent years, developed countries have set off a trend of anti-globalization, unilateralism and protectionism have risen, and the trade conflict between China and the United States has become particularly fierce. This reflects the seriousness of developed countries, led by the United States, in the distribution of benefits brought about by the global multilateral cooperation mechanism under the WTO framework. Dissatisfied, the CPTPP, EPA, EVFTA and other regional free trade agreements led by the super large economies of the United States, Europe and Japan have been signed one after another, indicating that developed countries are trying to build a new order of international economic cooperation that is more beneficial to their own interests. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the globalization mechanism centered on the WTO may stagnate, and major changes in the international cooperation mechanism will have an important impact on world economic development and international industrial layout.
Figure 1: GDP growth of developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2019
Data source: International Monetary Fund
Figure 2: GDP of major countries in the world (unit: trillions of US dollars)
Data source: International Monetary Fund
With full cooperation conditions Compared with the global supply chain system under the current situation, the international supply chain under the new pattern will inevitably face the reality of declining efficiency, and world economic growth will deviate further from the potential level. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the world economic growth center was reduced from nearly 5% to about 3% (see Figure 3). During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, considering factors such as the decline in supply chain efficiency combined with the COVID-19 epidemic and financial system risks, , the core level of growth of the world economy may move further downwards than before the epidemic. For my country’s textile industry, this means that the overall market fundamentals of the “14th Five-Year Plan” will be a slowdown in total demand growth. At the same time, the international economic and trade cooperation environment that my country’s textile enterprises are familiar with will undergo important changes. The risk of trade friction will continue to be high, the risk of integrating high-quality overseas resources will rise, and capital cooperation will face more obstacles.
Figure 3: World GDP year-on-year growth from 2000 to 2020
Data source: International Monetary Fund
However, the reconstruction of international cooperation mechanisms has also given our country the opportunity to participate more deeply in global governance. The “One Road” initiative continues to advance, and China will play a more active role in international economic and trade cooperation, especially regional multilateral cooperation. The recent achievement of RCEP cooperation is an important sign of progress. Based on its core position in the manufacturing end of the international supply chain, my country’s textile industry will have the opportunity to better dominate the international industrial chain and supply chain cooperation pattern and create a new era of development.
02 The COVID-19 epidemic has far-reaching impact
Erupting globally in 2020 The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is the most serious public health crisis that mankind has encountered so far this century. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on world economic development goes far beyond the temporary slowdown in economic activities and disruption of international supply chains caused by blockade and anti-epidemic measures. In the long run, more profound impacts will emerge one by one.
Scientific research shows that the new coronavirus may exist for a long time, or at least cannot disappear in a short period of time. The lifestyle and social habits formed for the purpose of epidemic prevention still need to be continued. Weak demand caused by maintaining social distance, reducing gathering activities, and changing consumption scenarios will continue for some time. The resulting delays in investment and innovation activities, long-term layoffs of the workforce, and other issues will cause damage to the foundation of economic development.
More importantly, during the epidemic, there was a shortage of medical and epidemic prevention materials, and the international supply chain was severely disrupted, which made many countries realize the importance of industrial security and economic security. nature, strengthening the endogenous driving force of economic development and improving the domestic industrial system will become inevitable policy choices. Since the outbreak, many developed countries have encouraged their companies to return to the country.�� problem.
05 Responsible development is urgently needed to deal with the climate crisis
In recent years, the world The climate change situation is becoming increasingly severe, and climate crisis events caused by global warming are increasing. With the anti-globalization trend on the rise, the Paris Agreement has taken many twists and turns, making it increasingly difficult to build an effective global climate governance system. Global climate warming is about to enter a critical point. Crossing the critical point means that the climate crisis is irreversible. The time window left for the international community to respond becomes increasingly limited. The task of achieving “net-zero emissions” that neutralizes carbon dioxide output and elimination is urgent. Very difficult.
my country’s national economy and industrial industries are still in a total growth cycle. According to the relevant content of the “Recommendations on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan and Long-term Goals for 2035” recently issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China , my country will reach the peak of carbon emissions before 2030, and the important task of climate governance remains to be solved. The textile industry will no longer take total growth as its development goal during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, but the task of carbon emission reduction is still arduous. At the same time, the “Recommendations on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan and Long-term Goals for 2035” continues to strengthen the ecological and environmental protection concept of “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”, indicating that tasks such as pollution prevention and control and rigid water resource constraints have long-term significance. Difficulty. From a longer-term perspective, basing development on the well-being of future generations and human climate security is also the responsibility of the world’s industrial powers.
During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, in order to continue to improve the carbon emission reduction capacity of unit output, the textile industry will insist on promoting the research and development and application of energy-saving and low-consumption processing technology. Conduct forward-looking basic research on net-zero emissions, explore the establishment of relevant industry management and service systems, and lay a solid foundation for achieving the peak of total carbon emissions. At the same time, it is very urgent to effectively solve the contradiction between the textile industry chain’s demand for printing and dyeing processing, resources, and the ecological environment, whether from the perspective of technological breakthroughs or sustainable industrial development.
The “Recommendations on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan and Long-term Goals for 2035” points out that my country’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, and the basic judgment of the situation remains unchanged, but opportunities and There are new developments and changes in challenges. For the textile industry, changes in the situation provide a test, and disruption creates opportunities.
Be aware of changes and assess the situation, and turn crises into opportunities! Adapt to changes and seek innovation, and move forward steadily! </p
